Threatened Ice sheet Integrity By: Carl Egede Bøggild The University Centre in Svalbard, UNIS Department of Arctic Geophysics.

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Presentation transcript:

Threatened Ice sheet Integrity By: Carl Egede Bøggild The University Centre in Svalbard, UNIS Department of Arctic Geophysics

Sea level and climate sensitivity

Is the Greenland ice sheet threatened? yes/no/don’t know – is all true New observational methods has proven that past knowledge was not sufficient The mass balance becomes ever more negative No absolute method to assess the mass balance – and different methods deviate

Greenland sea level and ocean circulation

Ice sheet model predictions An irreversible melt down may occur if around ¼ of the ice sheet mass is lost

The principle of instability Dynamic effect

An overview of results Climate models Gravity satellite Laser altimetry Radar altimetry SAR

Why is it so difficult to measure changes?

Melt water reaching the base

Changes in calving fluxes Is ice discharge climate or weather dependent?

Ice sheet memory: response to the LIA

Even different climate models produce different results

Increased observed surface melt

Is there a consensus? IPCC: “loss of the Greenland ice sheet is likely not to occur in the 21st century” Ice dynamics in the future: -Assume that the flow acceleration will persist unchanged -Scale up ice sheet discharge -Assume that the present imbalance is only transient

How does all this relate to short lived pollutants?

First results - Aerosols and BC remains on the ice margin surface -15% albedo reduction => 1 meter of annual melt

Results from NE-Greenland Impurity: aerosols + micro organisms

The effect of the “agricultural revolution” Forest clearing in North-America can potentially have caused more BC Model conditions: Excess BC 2 times, period yr bp

McConnell et al th-Century Industrial Black Carbon Emissions Altered Arctic Climate Forcing. Science Vol no. 5843, pp Modern industrial soot

First guess Storage: yrs Short lived pollutants are not short lived in Greenland Residence time to be estimated by modelling