Space Weather STEREO SWG Hamburg 2005 D.A. Biesecker NOAA/SEC

Agenda Current Beacon Status Current Beacon Status Presentations on ‘operational’ use of beacon Presentations on ‘operational’ use of beacon Data Viewers Data Viewers Berghmans Berghmans Pick Pick Russell? Russell? Automated Event Detection Automated Event Detection Robbrecht – CME’s Robbrecht – CME’s Podladchikova – EUV dimmings Podladchikova – EUV dimmings Modelling efforts Modelling efforts Biesecker – Geometric Localization Biesecker – Geometric Localization Others? Others? Break? Break? S/WAVES Space Weather Plan – M. Kaiser S/WAVES Space Weather Plan – M. Kaiser MuSTAnG Space Weather Muon Telescope – F. Jansen MuSTAnG Space Weather Muon Telescope – F. Jansen Round Table Discussion Round Table Discussion Review SWx ideas already known (on STEREO SWx website) Review SWx ideas already known (on STEREO SWx website) What have we missed? What have we missed? SWx chapter of STEREO book SWx chapter of STEREO book Other Topics? Other Topics?

Outline Ground station network coming along Ground station network coming along Turbo licensing issue almost resolved Turbo licensing issue almost resolved s/c beacon mode telecom testing s/c beacon mode telecom testing Software to decode Viterbi and Turbo encoded data in work (Phil Karn) Software to decode Viterbi and Turbo encoded data in work (Phil Karn)

SPICE kernels Space Weather Beacon Processing APL MOC Packet Handling Application Instrument Specific Applications Display, Serve, Archive, Browse S/C Transfer Frame Handling Application NOAA & Public SSC S/WAVESSECCHI (NRL) “C” to assemble image; IDL to decompress IMPACT (UCB) “C” for MAG, SWEA, STE (Caltech) SEP (UNH) IDL code for PLASTIC (UCLA) coordinate transforms for MAG Real-Time Off-line NOAA Antenna Partners Real-Time and Off-line PLASTIC SWAVESlib IDL package

Ground Station Partners Primary network – gives us the 24/7 coverage we need Primary network – gives us the 24/7 coverage we need NOAA and CNES (France) are signed on NOAA and CNES (France) are signed on Letters in hand Letters in hand Toulouse (1.5E); Wallops (75.5W); Fairbanks (147.8W) Toulouse (1.5E); Wallops (75.5W); Fairbanks (147.8W) CRL (Japan) is likely CRL (Japan) is likely NOAA has made a formal request through International Affairs Office NOAA has made a formal request through International Affairs Office We’d like redundancy where possible We’d like redundancy where possible Probable is RAL (UK) Probable is RAL (UK) Possible is USAF (California), ACRES (Australia) Possible is USAF (California), ACRES (Australia) Others? Others?

Other details Beacon telemetry to begin after heliospheric orbits achieved Beacon telemetry to begin after heliospheric orbits achieved Tested basic functional transfer of beacon telemetry packets from NOAA/SEC (representing ground stations) to SSC Tested basic functional transfer of beacon telemetry packets from NOAA/SEC (representing ground stations) to SSC Based on ACE real-time solar wind telemetry system Based on ACE real-time solar wind telemetry system ICD between NASA SSC and NOAA SEC almost finished? ICD between NASA SSC and NOAA SEC almost finished?

Turbo Telemetry encoding options in the beacon mode are rate 1/6 Viterbi, rate ½ Viterbi, and Turbo encoding. Telemetry encoding options in the beacon mode are rate 1/6 Viterbi, rate ½ Viterbi, and Turbo encoding. Turbo encoding (decoding) improves E b /N o Turbo encoding (decoding) improves E b /N o Issues regarding Turbo were licensing and cost. Issues regarding Turbo were licensing and cost. NOAA and France Telecom agree on wording of licensing agreement NOAA and France Telecom agree on wording of licensing agreement Final draft not on the street, yet Final draft not on the street, yet Phil Karn (wrote decoder for ACE) will write Turbo decoder, free of charge Phil Karn (wrote decoder for ACE) will write Turbo decoder, free of charge

STEREO Science Center Real-time data displays Real-time data displays Images Images Where is STEREO? Where is STEREO? Javascript movies w/selectable time range Javascript movies w/selectable time range CME detection bit in real-time CME detection bit in real-time One scheme is CACTUS One scheme is CACTUS Another is being developed by JPL Another is being developed by JPL Automated alert? (current manual LASCO alert) Automated alert? (current manual LASCO alert)

What do NOAA forecasters plan to do with STEREO? 3-d viewer or some way to display what’s coming at us on the Sun-Earth line 3-d viewer or some way to display what’s coming at us on the Sun-Earth line SECCHI team SECCHI team Others – Geometric Localization Others – Geometric Localization Predicting CME arrival – HI Predicting CME arrival – HI Anything that reliably and robustly describes some parameter of the data that doesn’t require looking at the huge volume of data. Anything that reliably and robustly describes some parameter of the data that doesn’t require looking at the huge volume of data.

Coronal Hole/High Speed Stream Enhanced electrons Enhanced electrons Minor/Moderate geomagnetic storms Minor/Moderate geomagnetic storms Who cares Who cares Satellite operators Satellite operators … 1 year into mission 1 year into mission ~1.5 days lead time ~1.5 days lead time What we see at Earth What STEREO-B sees

SEP events Event profile depends on observer position relative to event source Event profile depends on observer position relative to event source Radiation Storm Radiation Storm Who cares: Who cares: Launch providers Launch providers Satellite operators Satellite operators Astronauts Astronauts Airline pilots/stewards Airline pilots/stewards STEREO LAGGING EARTH STEREO LEADING W90 W17E42

Geometric Localization Technique What ‘Geometric Localization’ (GL) does What ‘Geometric Localization’ (GL) does Given observations of any structure from 2 different places Given observations of any structure from 2 different places at the same time if a transient structure at the same time if a transient structure It works on ‘any’ structure for which an ‘edge’ is visible It works on ‘any’ structure for which an ‘edge’ is visible GL defines a volume which circumscribes that structure GL defines a volume which circumscribes that structure

STEREO Beacon Data 24/7 real-time beacon data 24/7 real-time beacon data See Biesecker and Webb poster SH21B-0412 Low-cadence, low resolution Low-cadence, low resolution in-situ in-situ imaging imaging 5-minute latency 5-minute latency SECCHI/COR2 images SECCHI/COR2 images 4x per hour 4x per hour 1/8 resolution (256x256 pixels ~ 120”) 1/8 resolution (256x256 pixels ~ 120”)

Schematic of ‘Geometric Localization’ Technique Need location of 2 spacecraft Need location of 2 spacecraft Defines a plane Defines a plane Need location of ‘edges’ of CME Need location of ‘edges’ of CME Defines a quadrilateral circumscribing CME Defines a quadrilateral circumscribing CME

L A1 L A2 L B1 L B2 L A1 L A2 L B2 L B1 Geometric Localization Mark one edge – L A1 Mark one edge – L A1 s/c – s/c – Sun plane: defines a line s/c – s/c – Sun plane: defines a line Mark L A2 ; and then in other s/c image mark L B1 & L B2 Mark L A2 ; and then in other s/c image mark L B1 & L B2 Choose a succession of starting points – thin slices Choose a succession of starting points – thin slices e.g. STEREO Leading +35° e.g. STEREO Lagging -35°

The Resulting Localization Comparison of localization model to input CME Comparison of localization model to input CME 3 perspectives 3 perspectives Geometric Localization circumscribes input CME Geometric Localization circumscribes input CME

How well does it work? One measure of error One measure of error Ratio of area determined by GL to area of input CME ~ f(Χ) Ratio of area determined by GL to area of input CME ~ f(Χ) Quantifiable – critical for forecasters Quantifiable – critical for forecasters Ideal separation 90° Ideal separation 90° Two years into mission Two years into mission Reasonable uncertainty (<50%) Reasonable uncertainty (<50%) Year 1 to Year 3 Year 1 to Year 3 Comparing area of cross- section of model to cross- section of CME

Planned additional work Explore much broader range of examples Vary CME shape, density distribution Making it an operational product Improve/refine error analysis Automated CME detection & edge detection Apply to successive SECCHI COR2 images Location, extent, velocity If CME will arrive and when How much of the CME Earth will see (strength and duration) Streamline and document software Relate to polarization analysis (Moran and Davila 2004; Dere et al.) GL removes plane of sky ambiguity Polarization analysis provides info. on internal structural

Polarization Analysis On a pixel by pixel basis – finds C.O.M. along a line of sight Collapses a 3-d structure into ~2.5-d Gives spatial information

Polarization Analysis + Geometric Localization Polarization Analysis and Geometric Localization are complementary Geometric Localization resolves plane-of-sky ambiguities inherent in polarization analysis Polarization analysis can provide more information about CME structure (i.e. mass distribution)

L A1

A pathetic attempt at demonstrating a visualization tool View from the side View straight down the barrel

What’s still missing? What info didn’t I present that FAB wants? What info didn’t I present that FAB wants? What needs to be done before launch What needs to be done before launch Do we do lots of work to be ready for data? Do we do lots of work to be ready for data? Do we wait to see what we end up getting and using? Do we wait to see what we end up getting and using? Transition process? Transition process?

Data Browsers and Viewers SSC Beacon Data pages SSC Beacon Data pages Solar Weather Browser B. Nicula, D. Berghmans, R. van der Linden ROB Solar Weather Browser B. Nicula, D. Berghmans, R. van der Linden ROB User-friendly browser tool for finding & displaying solar data & (SWB) context information. User-friendly browser tool for finding & displaying solar data & (SWB) context information. Test version available at Test version available at STEREO Key Parameters C. Russell & IMPACT, PLASTIC & SWAVES teams UCLA STEREO Key Parameters C. Russell & IMPACT, PLASTIC & SWAVES teams UCLA An easily browseable Merged Key Parameter data display including the in-situ & SWAVE radio data from STEREO. An easily browseable Merged Key Parameter data display including the in-situ & SWAVE radio data from STEREO. Carrington Rotation In-situ Browser J. Luhmann, P. Schroeder UCB Carrington Rotation In-situ Browser J. Luhmann, P. Schroeder UCB Browser for identifying in-situ events & their solar sources at CR-time scales. Browser for identifying in-situ events & their solar sources at CR-time scales. Includes near-Earth (ACE) data sets for third point views & image movies from SECCHI & near-Earth (SOHO). Includes near-Earth (ACE) data sets for third point views & image movies from SECCHI & near-Earth (SOHO). See: See: JAVA-3D Synoptic Information Viewer J. Luhmann, P. Schroeder UCB JAVA-3D Synoptic Information Viewer J. Luhmann, P. Schroeder UCB JAVA-3D applet for viewing 3D Sun & solar wind sources based on synoptic solar maps & potential field models of the coronal magnetic field. JAVA-3D applet for viewing 3D Sun & solar wind sources based on synoptic solar maps & potential field models of the coronal magnetic field. Radio and CME data pages M. Pick, M. Maksimovic, J.L. Bougeret, et al. Radio and CME data pages M. Pick, M. Maksimovic, J.L. Bougeret, et al. Ground radio imaging and spectra; movies; S/WAVES Ground radio imaging and spectra; movies; S/WAVES

3-D Imaging Tools Tie Point Tool E. DeJong, P. Liewer, J. Hall, J. Lorre JPL Tie Point Tool E. DeJong, P. Liewer, J. Hall, J. Lorre JPL Manually create tiepoints between features in SECCHI image pair & solve for 3D location in heliographic coordinates. Manually create tiepoints between features in SECCHI image pair & solve for 3D location in heliographic coordinates. Geometric Localization Of CMEs V. Pizzo, D. Biesecker NOAA Geometric Localization Of CMEs V. Pizzo, D. Biesecker NOAA Tool utilizing a series of LOS’s from two views to define the location, shape, size and velocity of a CME. Tool utilizing a series of LOS’s from two views to define the location, shape, size and velocity of a CME. To be automated & used to decide whether and when a CME will impact Earth. To be automated & used to decide whether and when a CME will impact Earth. 3D Structure of CMEs V. Bothmer, H. Cremades, D. Tripathi MPI, Ger. 3D Structure of CMEs V. Bothmer, H. Cremades, D. Tripathi MPI, Ger. Program to compare analysis of SECCHI images on the internal magnetic field configuration & near-Sun evolution of CMEs with models based on SOHO observations. Program to compare analysis of SECCHI images on the internal magnetic field configuration & near-Sun evolution of CMEs with models based on SOHO observations. Forecast flux rope structure; 3D visualization of CMEs. Forecast flux rope structure; 3D visualization of CMEs.

Automated Detection and Identification Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) E. Robbrecht, D. Berghmans, et al. Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) E. Robbrecht, D. Berghmans, et al. Near-realtime tool for detecting CMEs in SECCHI images. Near-realtime tool for detecting CMEs in SECCHI images. Outputs: QL CME catalog w/measures of time, width, speed; NRT CME warnings. Outputs: QL CME catalog w/measures of time, width, speed; NRT CME warnings. Successfully tested on SOHO LASCO CMEs. Successfully tested on SOHO LASCO CMEs. Test version available at Test version available at Computer Aided EUVI Wave & Dimming Detection O. Podladchikova, D. Berghmans, A. Zhukov ROB Computer Aided EUVI Wave & Dimming Detection O. Podladchikova, D. Berghmans, A. Zhukov ROB NRT tool for detecting EUV waves & dimming regions. NRT tool for detecting EUV waves & dimming regions. To be tested on SOHO EIT images. To be tested on SOHO EIT images. Velocity Map Construction J. Hochedez, S. Gissot ROB Velocity Map Construction J. Hochedez, S. Gissot ROB Program to analyze velocity flows on SECCHI images; detect CME onsets & EUV waves; NRT warnings of fast CMEs; reconstruct 3D velocity maps of CMEs from 2D maps from each STEREO. Program to analyze velocity flows on SECCHI images; detect CME onsets & EUV waves; NRT warnings of fast CMEs; reconstruct 3D velocity maps of CMEs from 2D maps from each STEREO. Automatic Solar Feature D. Rust, P. Bernasconi, B. LaBonte, JHU/APL Automatic Solar Feature D. Rust, P. Bernasconi, B. LaBonte, JHU/APL Tool for detecting and characterizing solar filaments and sigmoids Recognition & Classification in solar images. Goal is to meas. magnetic helicity parameters & forecast eruptions using filaments & sigmoids. Tool for detecting and characterizing solar filaments and sigmoids Recognition & Classification in solar images. Goal is to meas. magnetic helicity parameters & forecast eruptions using filaments & sigmoids.

Heliospheric Studies WSA Model Predictions N. Arge, J. Luhmann, D. Biesecker AFRL, UCB, NOAA WSA Model Predictions N. Arge, J. Luhmann, D. Biesecker AFRL, UCB, NOAA The Wang-Sheeley-Arge and ENLIL 3D MHD solar wind models will be integrated The Wang-Sheeley-Arge and ENLIL 3D MHD solar wind models will be integrated Provide routine predictions of vector s.w. velocity, polarity, s.w. density & temp. anywhere you like Provide routine predictions of vector s.w. velocity, polarity, s.w. density & temp. anywhere you like Identifying & Tracking CMEs with the Heliospheric Imagers R. Harrison, C. Davis RAL Identifying & Tracking CMEs with the Heliospheric Imagers R. Harrison, C. Davis RAL Produce simulations to show model CMEs can be identified & tracked with the HIs. Produce simulations to show model CMEs can be identified & tracked with the HIs. Use triangulation to measure speed & direction of CMEs & forecast their Earth arrival. Use triangulation to measure speed & direction of CMEs & forecast their Earth arrival. Structural Context of Heliosphere Using SMEI Data D. Webb, B. Jackson BC/AFRL, UCSD Structural Context of Heliosphere Using SMEI Data D. Webb, B. Jackson BC/AFRL, UCSD Use analyses of SMEI images to provide structural context of the heliosphere for STEREO HI Use analyses of SMEI images to provide structural context of the heliosphere for STEREO HI Also provide complementary observations of transient disturbances. Also provide complementary observations of transient disturbances. Interplanetary Acceleration of ICME’s M. Owens BU Interplanetary Acceleration of ICME’s M. Owens BU Construct acceleration profiles of fast ICMEs over a large heliocentric range using multi-point HI to understand the forces acting on ejecta. Construct acceleration profiles of fast ICMEs over a large heliocentric range using multi-point HI to understand the forces acting on ejecta. Improve predictions of arrival times of ICMEs at Earth. Improve predictions of arrival times of ICMEs at Earth. Relationship between CMEs and Magnetic Clouds S. Matthews, MSSL Relationship between CMEs and Magnetic Clouds S. Matthews, MSSL Assess the potential geoeffectiveness of CMEs based their association with magnetic clouds. Assess the potential geoeffectiveness of CMEs based their association with magnetic clouds. What particular characteristics lead to production of a magnetic cloud? What particular characteristics lead to production of a magnetic cloud?