WORLD POPULATION PROJECT POPULATION – DEVELOPMENT – ENVIRONMENT MODELLING: THOUGHTS ON AN EGYPTIAN APPLICATION IIASA WORKSHOP AUGUST 9 – 10, 2004

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT QUESTIONS SHOULD WE THINK ABOUT PDE INTERRELATIONSHIPS IN EGYPT? IF SO, HOW SHOULD WE DO IT?

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT PRESENTATION STRUCTURE PAST WORK IN THE WORLD POPULATION PROJECT ON POPULATION-DEVELOPMENT- INTERACTIONS A NEW MODEL QUESTIONS ABOUT NEXT STEPS

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT PAST WORK PDE MODELS OF MAURITIUS CAPE VERDE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHERN AFRICA  BOTSWANA  NAMIBIA  MOZAMBIQUE

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT PDE QUESTIONS - MAURITIUS WAS RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE 1980’S RELATED TO THE DECLINE IN FERTILITY IN THE 1960? WHAT WILL POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH DO TO THE WATER QUALITY OF THE LAGOON?

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT PDE QUESTIONS – CAPE VERDE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE EDUCATION DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION? HOW WILL CHANGES IN EDUCATION AFFECT FERTILITY? WHAT IS THE COST OF CLEANING COASTAL WATERS? HOW WILL A CLEANER ENVIRONMENT AND A MORE EDUCATED POPULATION AFFECT TOURISM?

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT QUESTIONS - YUCATAN WHAT ARE THE INTERCONNECTIONS BETWEEN TOURIST ARRIVALS, EMPLOYMENT IN TOURISM, MIGRATION, CROWDING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CLEANLINESS? WHAT ARE THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TOURISM AND THE HEALTH OF NEAR-SHORE FISHERIES?

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT QUESTIONS - MOZAMBIQUE HOW DOES HIV/AIDS AFFECT THE RATIO OF STUDENTS TO TEACHERS? HOW WILL WATER SUPPLIES AND DEMANDS INTERACT TO INFLUENCE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY? HOW WILL CHANGES IN THE EDUCATION OF THE POPULATION AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH?

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT QUESTIONS - BOTSWANA AND NAMIBIA HOW WILL HIV/AIDS AFFECT POPULATION GROWTH? HOW WILL HIV/AIDS AFFECT THE GROWTH OF THE WORKING AGE POPULATION WITH SECONDARY SCHOOLING? HOW WILL HIV/AIDS AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH?

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS OF PDE STUDIES 1 LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVES USE OF COHORT – COMPONENTS POPULATION FORECASTS THAT INCLUDE ADDITIONAL DIMENSIONS, SUCH AS EDUCATION, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, OR HIV/AIDS STATUS.

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS OF PDE STUDIES 2 POPULATION IS CONSIDERED TO BE ONE OF THE FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE. THE SKILLS OF THE LABOR FORCE, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF EDUCATION, ARE INCLUDED.

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS OF PDE STUDIES 3 USUALLY WATER IS TAKEN AS THE MOST IMPORTANT ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLE. IN THE STUDIES FOR BOTSWANA AND NAMIBIA, THE ECONOMY WAS CHARACTERIZED USING GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS. IN OTHER STUDIES, MUCH SIMPLER MODELS WERE USED.

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT A NEW MODEL One way to integrate Demography (including Education), Economics, and Technical Change is to use the SEDIM (Simple Economic Demographic Interaction Model) Model. Development of this model began at IIASA during this year – and it is still in the formulative stages.

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Education and Production Demography and in particular education affects labor input, capital input, and technology.

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Education in Egypt Technically, it is reasonably simple to make scenarios for education and to deduce their consequences for future education distributions.

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Egypt 2000 Egypt 2030 Constant education scenario

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Egypt 2000 Egypt 2030 Strong enrolment increase scenario

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Education and Egypt’s Economy Direct Education Effects: Productivity Savings Invention and Technology Transfers

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Education and Egypt’s Economy Indirect Effects: Fertility Age structure  Aggregative Savings and Investment  Labor Force  Pension requirements  Intrafamily transfers  Taxes  Technology

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Average Education Per Worker

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT GDP and Education

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Real Output per Capita

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Rates of Per Capita Economic Growth

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Output per worker

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Total Fertility Rates

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Technology and Education

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Water It is possible to link water demand to this model. One possibility is take a country (for example Germany) and compute Egypt’s water demands if domestic, industrial, and agricultural water use intensities approached those of that country by the end of the century.

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT Some Major Limitations at this point The parameterization of SEDIM for Egypt is very rough. The model has to be made “open” to be made more relevant for Egypt. Transitions from intrafamily support for the elderly to state pensions or private capital market savings have to be considered.

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT SEDIM is only one possibility There are a number of different ways of linking population, education, economic growth, and technology. What is the best way forward?

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT THANK YOU.