M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet et alii 26/02/2010 Individual Dynamics of Poverty, a study tackling changes in poverty in France via the SILC survey

Page 2 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, Plan › The Survey The Survey › The Concepts and Methods used in the Study The Concepts and Methods used in the Study › The Main Results The Main Results

Page 3 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (1/6) › The SILC Survey › Aim : follow the incomes, the living conditions, the standards of living, and poverty through the years › Successor of the european panel › Started in 2003 (2004 in France) › Initially launched on the basis of an agreement in 6 Member States and then extended to the whole EU + Iceland, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey › Legal act and framework regulation : defining the technical aspects destined to harmonize the collection of data and the target concepts › Comparison of international data

Page 4 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (2/6) › Framework Regulation › Primary module (fixed) and secondary module (variable) › A recommended structure suitable for meeting the combined cross- sectional and longitudinal requirements (4-sub-sample-pattern) › Minimum effective sample sizes (cross-sectionnal and longitudinal) › Average interview time : one hour, not more › Deadlines in terms of production : availability and reports on quality

Page 5 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (3/6) › The French Version (SRCV 2004 – 2007) › Specific pattern : cross-sectional and longitundinal data linked, 9 sub- samples (instead of 4 recommended) › Compulsory for the first 4 years, facultative then › Target population : « ménages ordinaires » = people living in private households that are not part of institutions or community centers › The data collected in 2004 refers to incomes received in 2003 … › The survey is part of the french statistics system for measuring incomes and living conditions

Page 6 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (4/6) › The Sample Longitudinal

Page 7 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (5/6) › Two Dimensions : a Single Survey but Two Types of Interviews › The aim of the ‘panel – questionnaire’ is to collect the same kind of data as the initial questionnaire › Benefits : –Saving time interview –Better quality for the follow-up of individuals –The evolutions as regards collected amounts of incomes are controlled

Page 8 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (6/6) › The Follow-up of Individuals › Tracing rules applying to individuals (moving, death, ‘split’ household) › Individuals who do not belong to the target population anymore (eg. moved outside the country) are dropped from the survey › Development of the loyalty (presents, New Year card, etc)  high response rate › Statistical Processing › The validity of income variables and their variations is verified compared to the previous value, the coherence is checked within the dataset… Imputations in case of missing values

Page 9 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (1/4) › The Aim of the Study › Understanding the factors that determine the transitions between poverty and non-poverty or the persistence of poverty ; measuring the influence of these factors › To do so : study of the individuals dynamics through the years and the sociodemographic characteristics implying changes as regards poverty

Page 10 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (2/4) › The Concepts › Poverty line, based on the income distribution › The ‘present – present’ population › Methods › Acceptable changes (= as real changes) : variation superior to 10% under (to become poor) or above (to come out of the state of poverty) the poverty line › Breakdown of the disposable income in 4 groups › What does ‘becoming poor’, ‘coming out of the state of poverty’ or ‘remaining poor’ mean ?

Page 11 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (3/4)

Page 12 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (4/4) › What kind of Models ? Models for ‘individuals’ › To become poor › To come out of the state of poverty Modèles au niveau « ménages » › To remain poor › Global model

Page 13 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (1/8) General Results › Between 2003 and 2006, 22% of the individuals have been poor at least a year › The year-to-year transitions are comparable between 2003 and 2006

Page 14 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (2/8) › Transitions Statistics

Page 15 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (3/8) › Direct Link between the Evolution of Incomes and Transitions › The ‘newcomers’ to the state of poverty : the income related to their activity has severely decreased (40 % on average between the reference year and 2006) – the part of state helps (housing or other helps) in the disposable income increases › People coming out of their state of poverty : clear rise of the income related to their activity

Page 16 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (4/8) › Modelising Multiple factors › Family events have an important impact on the probability to become poor › Being employed can prevent from becoming poor : once a person as slipped below the poverty line, being unemployed decreases their chances to rise above the poverty line

Page 17 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (5/8) › A partner being idle is a factor contributing to the persistence of poverty › The local economy has an influence on the transitions

Page 18 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (6/8)

Page 19 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (7/8) › Le modèle global

Page 20 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (8/8) › Limits of the Study › Building econometrics using the panel aspects  neutralize the unobservable individual effects › Attrition : the poor is a population liable to move rather frequently

Page 21 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, Publicity … ! The paper is to be released in a forthcoming publication concerning incomes

Page 22 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, Thank you for your attention !!

Page 23 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, I’m not gone yet Any questions ?