September 16, 2008 From the Paved State Back to the Garden State Mobility without Highways for New Jersey Alain L. Kornhauser Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Transportation Research Program Princeton University Presented at PodCar Conference, Ithica, NY

September 16, 2008 Background I’ve been dabbling in PRT for over 35 years In many ways, I’m very disappointed in our lack of progress: –A long time ago: Exec. Director of APTA said: “Alain: PRT is the transportation system of the future… And Always will be!!!” But we have made progress: –Morgantown has proven that it can be done –APMs are a standard of every modern airport –Automation and computer controls have become ubiquitous, reliable and cheap –There is broad movement towards energy independence and alternatives to the petroleum economy

September 16, 2008 So… Premise: –NJ in 2008 is very different from NJ in 1908 A look at what might be NJ’s Mobility in 2108 (or before)

September 16, 2008 Looking Back In the beginning, it takes a while let’s look at the automobile: Daimler, 1888

September 16, 2008 Central Ave. Caldwell NJ c. 1908

September 16, 2008

Bloomfield Ave. & Academy Rd. c Before it was paved

September 16, 2008 Muddy Bloomfield Ave. c. 1908

September 16, 2008 Muddy Main St. (Rt. 38) Locke, NY. c. 1907

September 16, 2008 Automobile Congestion present Finally:

September 16, 2008 Starting to Look Forward Daimler, 1888 Morgantown, 1973

September 16, 2008 So…

September 16,

September 16, 2008 PRT as the Dominant Mode. What would it take? Had my undergrad Transportation Systems Analysis class (Orf 467) looking at this for each of the past 3 years Def. “Dominant Mode”: Serve >90% of all intra NJ trips + access to existing mass transit serving NYC and Phila Def. “Serve”: Less than 5 minute walk to a station; stations all interconnected; all existing rail mass transit connected/

September 16, 2008 Sketch Planning Process Precisely geolocate all trip ends by purpose Extensive use Google Earth and Msft. Virtual Earth to provide spatial reality perspective to trip end concentrations and Physical constraints Manually locate all stations and interconnection Analytically assign the trip end demand to stations and flow the trips on the interconnected network. Manually iterate the location of stations and interconnection

September 16, 2008 Basic NJ Transport Stats ElementValue Population (2006 est.)8.725 million Growth rate3.7% (6.4% nw) Population density1,134.5 ppsm (highest in US) 190ppsm (Salem) – 12,800pps (Hudson) Persons < 5 years old 6% Persons % Persons % Persons 65 and over13% Total Person trips per day29.46M 2007 $ Spent on Personal Mobility by NJ Citizens (mostly on Automobile) $24B Source of Electricity GenerationNuclear: 45%; Natural Gas: 41%; Renewables: < 0.2%

September 16, 2008 Briefly on Energy

September 16, 2008 OPEC Cuts World Petroleum Demand Forecast, Nov 17,2008 EIA World oil Demand, Nov 12, 2008: Mbpd

September 16, 2008 Glouchester County

September 16, 2008 Essex County

September 16, 2008 Middlesex County

September 16, 2008 Morris County

September 16, 2008 Passaic County

September 16, 2008 Sussex County

September 16, 2008 Union County

September 16, 2008 Warren County

September 16, 2008 Number of Stations by County & Main Trip End CountyTranspSchoolHomeRecreOfficeIndustryPublicShopReligiousMultiUseOtherTOTAL Atlantic Bergen ,117 Burlington Cape May Cumberland Essex Gloucester Hudson Hunterdon Mercer Middlesex Monmouth Morris Ocean Passaic ,185 Salem Somerset Sussex Union Warren TOALS 222 1,297 3,011 1,114 1, , ,295

September 16, 2008 CountyStationsMilesCountyStationsMiles Atlantic191526Middlesex Bergen1,117878Monmouth Burlington597488Morris Camden482355Ocean5401,166 Cape May976497Passaic11851,360 Cumberland4371,009Salem Essex595295Somerset Gloucester412435Sussex Hudson467122Union Hunterdon405483Warren Mercer413403Total11,29512,261

September 16, 2008 Bottom Line ElementValue PRT Trips per day (90%)26.51M Peak hour trips (15%)3.98M Fleet size530K Fleet Cost $100K/vehicle Stations11,295 Station $2M/Station Guideway12,265 miles Guideway $5M/mile Total Capital Cost$143B

September 16, 2008 Conclusions It’s a lot It does a lot It’s one design focused on existing land use / mobility patterns We should be able to do better Thank you