Evidence for Milankovitch theory (wikipedia!). Px272 Lect 3: Forcing and feedback.

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Presentation transcript:

Evidence for Milankovitch theory (wikipedia!)

Px272 Lect 3: Forcing and feedback

Figure TS.5 Anthropogenic Radiative Forcings IPCC AR4 2007

Aerosol direct forcing Nature 438, 1138 (Dec 2005)

Aerosol indirect forcing effect

Figure TS.5 Radiative Forcings IPCC AR4 2007

G/house gas and aerosol buildup Rise of global Greenhouse gases with industrial era ( IPCC S/PM 2001) CO2 emissions continue to accelerate (IPCC 2007)

IPCC 2007

(b) Sulphate aerosols deposited in Greenland ice Industrial sulphate aerosols appear to have peaked for Greenland record.

Response and Feedback

Water vapour feedback Water saturation (mid troposphere) <-Simulation Observed->

Cloud Radiation Feedback Potentially quite large Altitude dependent Net highly uncertain

Ocean Circulation Feedback Huge heat capacity - delays warming Circulation driven by: temperature difference salinity difference rotation of earth - redistributes regionally: more winter heat to NW Europe from ocean transport than from sun - global heat redistribution still dominated by atmosphere

Ice Albedo Feedback

Arctic sea ice decrease

(ca 2002)

Changes in atmospheric composition IPCC fig 3.4

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