Enrollment Projection July 17, 2007 Terrance L. Seethoff, Dean College of Arts and Sciences

NMU Frosh FYES Enrollment

NMU Frosh FYES Enrollment vs. Michigan 18 Year Olds NMU Freshman FYES is strongly correlated with Michigan 18 year old population. Correllation = 0.88; r-squared = 0.77

Out of State FYES Recent Frosh FYES enrollment has Grown faster than 18 year old population.

Michigan 18 Year Old Population Projection Source: US Census Bureau 2005 Projection of Population by Age

Michigan 18 Year Old Population Projection vs. National 18 Year Old Population

Midwest Recruiting Region18 Year Old Population Projection Source: US Census Bureau 2005 Projection of Population by Age

Midwest Recruiting Region18 Year Old Population Projection vs. National 18 Year Old Population. Source: US Census Bureau 2005 Projection of Population by Age

Public High School Graduates: Cumulative Change From 2008 StateUPLP West Central UP East UP Northern LP Central LP East Central LPSE LPSW LP 20090%-5%0%-5%-2%1% -2%1% %-9%-2%-7%-5%-3%1%-5%-1% %-12%-4%-11%-9%-5%-1%-8%-3% %-15%-9%-16%-12%-10%-4%-15%-8% %-19%-11%-20%-14% -5%-18%-9% %-19%-14%-19%-18%-15%-7%-23%-10% %-20%-15%-20% -17%-8%-25%-11% %-25%-16%-23%-22%-18%-9%-26%-10% %-22%-17%-22%-23%-20%-9%-29%-9% %-28%-17%-27%-23%-20%-9%-29%-8% %-26%-19%-25% -21%-11%-31%-9% %-30%-22%-27%-30%-24%-15%-34%-12% %-30%-23%-27%-31%-26%-15%-35%-12% Base Data: Center for Educational Performance Information (Michigan) N.B. the data above are cumulative, and not annual changes. Regional Projections of High School Graduates Cohort Survival Analysis

The 18 year old population will decline through 2016 in Michigan and as well in our Midwest recruiting region. The Michigan 18 year population is projected to remain stagnant at its 2016 lows for the foreseeable future. The 18 year old population in neighboring states is projected to rebound after 2016, but not as robustly as the nation.

Correlation 18 Year Old Projection

Undergraduate FYES Projection Data through AY 2008 are actual; Data for 2009 and beyond are projections.

Public High School Graduates: Cumulative Change From 2008 StateUPLP West Central UP East UP Northern LP Central LP East Central LPSE LPSW LP 20090%-5%0%-5%-2%1% -2%1% %-9%-2%-7%-5%-3%1%-5%-1% %-12%-4%-11%-9%-5%-1%-8%-3% %-15%-9%-16%-12%-10%-4%-15%-8% %-19%-11%-20%-14% -5%-18%-9% %-19%-14%-19%-18%-15%-7%-23%-10% %-20%-15%-20% -17%-8%-25%-11% %-25%-16%-23%-22%-18%-9%-26%-10% %-22%-17%-22%-23%-20%-9%-29%-9% %-28%-17%-27%-23%-20%-9%-29%-8% %-26%-19%-25% -21%-11%-31%-9% %-30%-22%-27%-30%-24%-15%-34%-12% %-30%-23%-27%-31%-26%-15%-35%-12% Projection UG Pct Change from , ,947-1% 20107,742-4% 20117,597-5% 20127,461-7% 20137,254-10% 20147,049-12% 20156,878-14% 20166,763-16% 20176,662-17% 20186,606-18% 20196,634-17% 20206,587-18% 20216,499-19% 20226,452-20% 20236,353-21% 20246,315-21% 20256,355-21% 20266,404-20% 20276,460-19% 20286,520-19% 20296,571-18% 20306,608-18%

Michigan 2005 Projected Population vs. Annual Updated Estimates Undergraduate enrollment estimates based upon projected 18 year old populations are probably too high. The total state population as projected in 2005 is substantially higher than recently revised estimates.

Thanks