© T. M. Whitmore Today Sub-Saharan Africa & Development

© T. M. Whitmore Last Time Infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa – especially HIV/AIDS

© T. M. Whitmore Sub-Saharan Africa & Development Development = bettering of society or of a people (many definitions)  Economic measures  Non-economic measures

© T. M. Whitmore Least developed (poorest) countries I Low labor productivity -- mostly in agriculture Large proportion of population in poverty Food supplies are limited or risky Health problems abound Limited environmental variety or natural resources - especially much aridity

© T. M. Whitmore Least developed (poorest) countries II Isolated and/or land locked countries Heritage of colonialism and political mis-management Internal ethnic or political problems and/or conflicts & external conflicts Highly skewed wealth

© T. M. Whitmore Many countries in SS Africa are among the least developed Why so many here?  Sahelian West Africa  Humid west Africa  East and east-central Africa

Some of the “Least Developed”

© T. M. Whitmore Why so many in SS Africa? Remnants of colonialism SS African environments and human uses SS African environments and human uses  Environmental concerns Role of conflictconflict Importance of population & Demography Importance of population Agricultural production Role of disease Role of debt Structure of African economies

© John Wiley & Sons Sahara Sahel Savanna Equatorial

Sahel

Variability of annual rainfall

© John Wiley & Sons

Per capita water availability 2004 m 3 /yr

© Freeman & Co.

© T. M. Whitmore Role of conflict Origins, complexities, causes — very complex  Economic — conflicts over limited resources  Ethnic — conflicts over power  Cold war surrogates and over armaments  Colonial residuals only add to this

© T. M. Whitmore Conflicts Ethiopia — 30 yr civil war now with drought Uganda — colonial Brits set up minority peoples as rulers Rwanda and Burundi — ethnic and political majority/minority Somalia — cold war based political struggle Sudan — N-S religious (and other) civil war for 30 yrs; Sudan - Darfur

© T. M. Whitmore Conflicts generate millions of Refugees and/or Internally Displaced PersonsRefugees and/or Internally Displaced Persons Refugees  Globally ~ 8.7 m (UNHCR ’05 report)  SS African ~ 2.6 m (~30% of global total) IDPs  Global ~ 23.7 m  SS African ~ 12.1 m (~50% of global total!)

© T. M. Whitmore Role of population growth Population = ~ 788 m  1.1 billion by 2025; 1.7 b by billion by 2025  Vast areas empty, some very dense Vast areas empty, some very dense Growth rates (rate of natural increase)  Very high at ~ 2.5%/yr.

© T. M. Whitmore Consequences of growth Very youthful population  ~43% less than 15 yrs Population momentum  > 1 b in your lifetime Urbanization  Low % now (~ 34%) but rapidly increasing  Urban problems: crowding, slums, environment & health, provisioning,

UN Projection

© T. M. Whitmore SS African Demography High death rates: High death rates  Average life expectancy at birth ~ 49 yrs (and declining in places!)  High Infant death rates ~ 9% (92/1000 live births) High birth rates TFR = 5.5!TFR = 5.5  Declining less than elsewhere  This looks like a mid-stage 2 or early 3 in the DT model Why is fertility so high? Why is fertility so high

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years

© T. M. Whitmore Why has fertility not declined? Early age of marriage Desire for large families High infant and youth mortality ratesyouth

© T. M. Whitmore Role of food and population Local food production up over last 20 yrs – but declining per capitadeclining per capita  Trails rest of world Trails rest of world Imports not sufficient to fill need either Healthy diet is 2, ,000 kcal/day (USA diet ~ 3,500 kcal/day)USA diet  No country in SS Africa (except S Africa) has > 2,500 kcal/daySS Africa  29 of 45 have inadequate diets

Undernourished Populations

© Menzel & D’Aluiso (Hungary Planet) 1 week’s food for a family in Raleigh, NC

1 week’s food for a family in Chad © Menzel & D’Aluiso (Hungary Planet)

© T. M. Whitmore “Natural” and social causes of the food problem Social  Poverty - ~ 75% of population lives on less than $2US/day Population growth: greater than growth of food crops Poverty  Political and other conflicts and refugees Political and other conflicts and refugees  Structural problems  Government and other mismanagement  “Structural Adjustment”

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau Population Living on Less Than US$2 per Day 2002 Percent Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.

© Menzel & D’Aluiso (Hungary Planet) 1 week’s food for a family of Darfur refugees

© T. M. Whitmore “Natural” causes of the food problem Production shortfalls  Drought: major problem in 1970s and 1980s Drought  Fertilizer “gap” Fertilizer

National Geographic Society

© International Fertilizer Industry Association