The Public between elections: A Check on Presidential Power?

Bush’s job approval (CNN/USAToday/Gallup)

Bush’s job approval CBS/NYTimes poll 10/14/2008 ApproveDisapprove Republicans5335 Democrats592 Independents2064

Why do presidents’ job approval ratings go up and down?

How do people form opinions about the president’s job performance? Partisanship The economy

How do people form opinions about the president’s job performance? Partisanship The economy News about outcomes

How do people form opinions about the president’s job performance? Partisanship The economy News about outcomes Rally effects

What are the consequences of changes in presidential approval ratings? Can affect relationships with members of Congress Can affect relationships with members of Congress Can affect presidential strategy Can affect presidential strategy Can have electoral impacts Can have electoral impacts

How do Presidents try to manipulate public opinion to their advantage?

Going Public A strategy whereby the president promotes himself and his policies in Washington by appealing to the American public for support A strategy whereby the president promotes himself and his policies in Washington by appealing to the American public for support

TR on his relationship with Republicans in the Senate “Gradually I was forced to abandon the effort to persuade them to come my way, and then I achieved results only by appealing over the heads of the Senate and House leaders to the people, who were the masters of both of us.” --The Works of Theodore Roosevelt (20: 342)

Why is Going Public a more common strategy in the late 20 th Century? Rise in presidential travel Rise in presidential travel Rise in accessible communications (TV) Rise in accessible communications (TV) Rise in animosity of national press Rise in animosity of national press Declining number of people watching major television addresses Declining number of people watching major television addresses Move from institutionalized pluralism to individualized pluralism Move from institutionalized pluralism to individualized pluralism

Public Appearances of Presidents (in and out of Washington), from Going Public

Presidential Addresses (from Going Public)

Going Public: Bush gets great press in the San Francisco Chronicle for a minor local speech, May 3, 2003.

How do Presidents try to manipulate public opinion to their advantage?

Organization of the White House/ Executive Office of the President Office of Communications Office of Communications Office of Public Liasion Office of Public Liasion Office of Public Affairs Office of Public Affairs Political Advisers on staff Political Advisers on staff

Doonesbury 5/1/03

Rally effects

Bush’s job approval (CNN/USAToday/Gallup)

Terrorist Attacks Invasion of Iraq Saddam Hussein found in hole

What is a rally effect? A sudden and substantial increase in public approval A sudden and substantial increase in public approval In response to dramatic international events In response to dramatic international events

What creates a rally? Major military developments (positive) Major military developments (positive) Summits Summits Sudden military interventions Sudden military interventions Major diplomatic actions Major diplomatic actions Dramatic technological developments Dramatic technological developments Attacks on American soil Attacks on American soil

Why? Invokes patriotism Invokes patriotism Invoke head of state role Invoke head of state role Depend on reaction of partisan opponents Depend on reaction of partisan opponents

Consequences No long term effects for president or party No long term effects for president or party Short term effects can impact elections Short term effects can impact elections