UNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL PROJECTIONS September 23, 2009 Frederick R. Ignatovich, Professor Emeritus Michigan State University

September F. IGNATOVICH 2 Listen To Advice And Accept Instruction, That You May Gain Wisdom For The Future. (Proverbs 19:20)

A Context for Regional and Local Events National Trends Michigan Trends

THE NATIONAL PICTURE BIRTHS ENROLLMENTS / PROJECTIONS

September F. IGNATOVICH 6 The National Birth Profile The post war baby boom peaked in 1961 (4.27 million) The baby bust started in 1962 and continued through 1976 (3.17 million) The echo boom started in 1977 and peaked in 1990 (4.16 million) Since 1990 births first declined (3.88 million in 1997) and then generally increased (to 4.25 million in 2008) Source: National Center for Health Statistics

September F. IGNATOVICH 8 The National Picture – K-12 Enrollments have annually risen since the school year with a slight slowdown in the rate of increase in recent years K-12 Public school enrollments will continue to moderately rise over the next five years (from until ) increasing approximately million or 3.8% (less than 1% per year) Source: National Center for Education Statistics

September F. IGNATOVICH 10 The National Picture – K-5 Echo boom enrollments peaks in (21.75 million). Slow modest decline from until Gradual increase from to (From to million). K-5 Public school enrollments will continue to moderately rise over the next five years (from until ) increasing approximately million or 5.6% (slightly greater than 1% per year). Source: National Center for Education Statistics

September F. IGNATOVICH 12 The National Picture – 6-8 Enrollments increased from to a 17.4% gain over 12 years (from to million). Slow modest decline from until a -3.3% loss over 5 years (from to million). 6-8 Public school enrollments will continue to moderately and consistently rise over the next five years (from until ) increasing approximately.735 million or 6.7% (approximately 1.33% per year). Source: National Center for Education Statistics

September F. IGNATOVICH 14 The National Picture – 9-12 Enrollments increased from to a 30.2% gain over 16 years (from to million). A modest decline was expected from to a -0.9% loss (from to million) Public school enrollments will continue to slightly and consistently fall over the next five years (from until ) decreasing approximately.186 million or -1.3% (approximately -0.25% per year). Source: National Center for Education Statistics

September F. IGNATOVICH 16 The National Picture – Senior Class Senior Class enrollments increased.903 million students from to (from to or +37.1% over 15 years) From to a decline to students was expected (a loss of.016 million students or -0.5%) Senior Class Public school enrollments will continue to modestly and consistently fall over the next five years (from until ) decreasing approximately.120 million or -3.6% (less than 1.0% per year). Source: National Center for Education Statistics

THE STATE PICTURE BIRTHS ENROLLMENTS / PROJECTIONS

September F. IGNATOVICH 19 The Michigan Birth Profile The post war baby boom peaked in 1957 (208, 488). The baby bust started in 1958 and continued until 1976 (131,378). (Continued on Next Slide)

September F. IGNATOVICH 20 The Michigan Birth Profile The echo boom started in 1977 but was attenuated due to an economic downturn in the early 80’s. The echo boom ended in 1990 with 153,080 births. Since 1990 births have slowly declined to a new low in 2008 at 124,635 (provisional data). Source: Michigan Department of Community Health

September F. IGNATOVICH 22 The Michigan Picture – K-12 Generally a moderate enrollment increase occurred from to (increasing from 1,548,817 to 1,690,990 students or +9.2% over nine years) then five years of moderate decline to (from 1,690,990 to 1,612,425 or -4.6%) The Most Likely Projection indicates a substantial and consistent decline from to from 1,612,425 to 1,489,131 (approximately a 123,000 student loss or -7.6% over five years) The Low Projection indicates a very substantial consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 1,612,425 in the Fall of 2008 to 1,449,840 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 163,000 or -10.1% over five years) The High Projection indicates a consistent moderate loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 1,612,425 in the Fall of 2008 to 1,529,482 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 83,000 or -5.1% over five years) Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years) Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU

September F. IGNATOVICH 24 The Michigan Picture – K-5 Generally a moderate enrollment increase occurred from to (increasing from 752,215 to 796,202 students or +5.8% over four years) then ten years of moderate decline to (from 796,202 to 712,200 or -10.6%) The Most Likely Projection indicates a moderate and consistent decline from to from 712,200 to 669,019 (approximately a 43,000 student loss or -6.1% over five years) The Low Projection indicates a substantial consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 712,200 in the Fall of 2008 to 651,578 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 61,000 or -8.5% over five years) The High Projection indicates a consistent modest loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 712,200 in the Fall of 2008 to 686,698 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 26,000 or -3.6% over five years) Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years) Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU

September F. IGNATOVICH 26 The Michigan Picture – 6-8 Generally a modest enrollment increase occurred from to (increasing from 356,991 to 415,455 students or +16.4% over nine years) then five years of substantial decline to (from 415,455 to 364,773 or -12.2%) The Most Likely Projection indicates a moderate and consistent decline from to from 364,773 to 344,547 (approximately a 20,000 student loss or -5.5% over five years) The Low Projection indicates a substantial and consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 364,773 in the Fall of 2008 to 340,629 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 24,000 or -6.6% over five years) The High Projection indicates a consistent moderate loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 364,773 in the Fall of 2008 to 348,599 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 16,000 or -4.4% over five years) Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years) Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU

September F. IGNATOVICH 28 The Michigan Picture – 9-12 Generally a very substantial enrollment increase occurred from to (increasing from 439,611 to 549,290 students or +24.9% over thirteen years) then a one year substantial decline to (from 549,290 to 535,452 or -2.5%) The Most Likely Projection indicates a substantial and consistent decline from to from 535,452 to 475,565 (approximately a 60,000 student loss or -11.2% over five years) The Low Projection indicates a very substantial and consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 535,452 in the Fall of 2008 to 457,633 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 78,000 or -14.5% over five years) The High Projection indicates a consistent substantial loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 535,452 in the Fall of 2008 to 494,185 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 41,000 or -7.7% over five years) Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years) Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU

September F. IGNATOVICH 30 The Michigan Picture – Senior Class Generally a very substantial and consistent enrollment increase occurred from to (increasing from 91,704 to 126,352 students or +37.8% over fourteen years) The Most Likely Projection indicates a very substantial and consistent decline from to from 126,352 to 108,745 (approximately a 18,000 student loss or -13.9% over five years) The Low Projection indicates a very large and consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 126,352 in the Fall of 2008 to 102,079 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 24,000 or -19.2% over five years) The High Projection indicates a consistent and substantial loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 126,352 in the Fall of 2008 to 115,735 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 11,000 or -8.4% over five years) Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years) Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU

SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS UNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOLS FROM TO GRADE LEVEL UNITED STATES PUBLIC – MOST LIKELY MICHIGAN PUBLIC – HIGH MICHIGAN PUBLIC– MOST LIKELY MICHIGAN PUBLIC– LOW K % -5.1% -7.6% -10.1% K % -3.6% -6.1% -8.5% % -4.4% -5.5% -6.6% % -7.7% -11.2% -14.5% SENIOR CLASS -3.6% -8.4% -13.9% -19.2%

September F. IGNATOVICH 32 A Thought From Socrates “The unexamined life is not worth living.” Source: Socrates in Plato, Dialogues, Apology Greek philosopher in Athens (469 BC – 399 BC)

September F. IGNATOVICH 33 What Is The Picture In Your Part Of The Forest?