Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Kurt Unger CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of.

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Presentation transcript:

Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Kurt Unger CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington WA State Dept. of Ecology Climate science in the public interest

The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project This 3-year research project (now in the final stages of completion) is designed to provide a comprehensive suite of 21 st century hydroclimatological scenarios for the Columbia River basin and coastal drainages in OR and WA. Collaborative Partners: WA State Dept. of Ecology (via HB 2860) Bonneville Power Administration Northwest Power and Conservation Council Oregon Water Resources Department BC Ministry of the Environment

297 Streamflow Sites Provide a wide range of products to address multiple stakeholder needs Increase spatial and temporal resolution Provide a large ensemble of climate scenarios to assess uncertainties Address hydrologic extremes (e.g. Q100 and 7Q10) Project Goals and Objectives

CBCCSP Research Team Lara Whitely Binder Pablo Carrasco Jeff Deems Marketa McGuire Elsner Alan F. Hamlet Carrie Lee Se-Yeun Lee Dennis P. Lettenmaier Jeremy Littell Guillaume Mauger Nate Mantua Ed Miles Kristian Mickelson Philip W. Mote Rob Norheim Erin Rogers Eric Salathé Amy Snover Ingrid Tohver Andy Wood chap1_intro_final.pdf

Overview of Scenarios

Mote and Salathé, Climate Impacts Group 2009, WA Assessment, Ch. 1 Climate Change Scenarios Figure shows change compared with average IPCC AR 4 Emissions Scenarios: A1BMedium High B1Low

Seasonal Precipitation Changes for the Pacific Northwest s 2040s 2080s

Available PNW Scenarios 2020s – mean ; 2040s – mean ; 2080s – mean Downscaling Approach A1B Emissions Scenario B1 Emissions Scenario Hybrid Delta hadcm cnrm_cm ccsm3 echam5 echo_g cgcm3.1_t47 pcm1 miroc_3.2 ipsl_cm4 hadgem1 2020s s s109 Transient BCSD hadcm cnrm_cm ccsm3 echam5 echo_g cgcm3.1_t47 pcm Delta Method composite of s s s11

Website Updates

Overview of Hydrologic Products

Hydrologic Products

Changing Watershed Classifications: Transformation From Snow to Rain * Based on Composite Delta Method scenarios (multimodel average change in T & P) Map: Rob Norheim

Snowmelt-Dominant Basins: Snake River at Milner

SWEStreamflow

Changes in Hydrologic Extremes

2040s Changes in Natural Flood Risk Boise River at Boise A1B B1 Historical 10 Member Ensemble Using the Hybrid Delta Downscaling Approach

Study results (which currently are in final form) are already being used and evaluated by a wide range of stakeholders including: USGS WA Dept of Ecology/WSU (HB 2860) Bonneville Power Administration U.S. Bureau of Reclamation U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Forest Service U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Boise Aquatic Research Laboratory National Marine Fisheries Science Center Who’s Using the Data?

Project Extensions

Extended Products for the Western U.S. The approach has been extended to additional western US watersheds in partnership with: US Forest Service US Fish and Wildlife Service Boise Aquatic Sciences Lab Trout Unlimited

Regional Climate Modeling at CIG  WRF Model (NOAH LSM) 36 to 12 km  ECHAM5 forcing  CCSM3 forcing (A1B and A2 scenarios)  HadRM 25 km  HadCM3 forcing

Extreme Precipitation from RCM Simulations Change from to in the percentage of total precipitation occurring when daily precipitation exceeds the 20 th century 95 th percentile larger increase on windward slopes of Cascades, Columbia basin small increase or decrease along Cascade crest

Ongoing Support for PNW Stakeholders and Water Professionals: Meetings and Workshops Webinars Short Courses Targeted Research Projects