1 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) What is the Decision Support Tool?

2 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) What is the DST? A way of helping make decisions related to hybrid vehicles Decisions can be complex, multi-faceted and often have to be made with limited information…..using the DST will make decision-making easier, faster and repeatable.

3 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) Who is it applicable to?

4 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) Who is it applicable to? Vehicle Manufacturers Suppliers Local/National Government Commercial Users Members of the public

5 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) How does it work?

6 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) How does it work? STEP 1 – DECISION QUESTION Start by defining the decision to be supported. Decisions categorised by decision maker type and decision type to aid selection. EXAMPLE I’m a private consumer PUBLIC I’m making a decision relating to vehicle PURCHASE Decision – I need to decide … … which vehicle to purchase from a set of identified vehicles?

7 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) How does it work? STEP 2 – VALUE PROFILE Identify what is important to the decision maker – their value set. Nesting allows for level of detail to reflect knowledge of user. EXAMPLE – Vehicle Purchase Specify importance on 0 (lowest) to 10 (highest) importance for set of factors relevant to purchase decisions. Both quantifiable aspects such as purchase cost and subjective factors such as aesthetics (appearance) can be included.

8 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) How does it work? STEP 3 – VALUE PROFILE(2) Identify how the decision maker’s preference varies with variations in the factors on which the decision is based. EXAMPLE – Purchase Cost When does a difference in price between 2 vehicles impact your preference for a vehicle? e.g. if you are considering between 2 £20k vehicles, does £100 difference in price influence your decision, or are you indifferent to such a small price difference?

9 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) How does it work? STEP 4 – DECISION SPECIFICATION Define the scenario in which the decision is being made i.e. information which provides context for the decision. EXAMPLE – Vehicle Purchase Information captured about how and where the vehicle is used. road types – motorway, urban etc. driving style across congestion charging zone? annual mileage

10 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) How does it work? STEP 4 – DECISION SPEC N (2) Specify each of the options being considered and evaluated, both factual and subjective impressions. EXAMPLE – Vehicle Purchase Information captured about the vehicles. Factual – weight, drag co-efficient etc. Subjective – aesthetics, image etc. Data, such as fuel economy might be entered directly, or generated through simulation.

11 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) How does it work? STEP 5 – DATA PROCESSING Input data is now processed using PROMETHEE methodology. Might include simulations, cost model calculations etc. to generate data. EXAMPLE – Vehicle Purchase Vehicle simulation - WARPSTAR returns fuel economy for a drive cycle generated based on users use profile. Figure more representative of real-world economy. g/km

12 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) How does it work? STEP 6 – RESULTS Options ranked. This might include continuous options such as determining optimum price. Confidence in results also indicated. EXAMPLE – Vehicle Purchase Vehicles ranked according to preference of decision maker Based on specified value set and specification data. VehicleSatisfaction Index Toyota Prius5.45 Honda IMA3.2 Jaguar X Type 4.5

13 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) How does it work? STEP 7 – DESIGN BY ITERATION What if questions analysed. Tool could be used recursively but slow. Automation through inputs as variables or targets. EXAMPLE – Vehicle Purchase What if someone else also drives the vehicle? What if I do less/more miles per annum? What if …. ?

14 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) What are the benefits of using the DST?

15 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) What are the benefits of using the DST? Improved decision making through consideration of factors in a structured format. ability to test sensitivity to changes. assistance in generation of accurate data e.g. link to simulation. capture of different perspectives across business in a formal, non-technical manner.

16 Hybrid Vehicle Projects © 2006 IARC Decision Support Tool (DST) What are the benefits of using the DST? Leads to : Accelerated decision taking through clear process and identification of required information. Reduced changes in programme. Easy-to-review reasoning behind decisions taken as auto captured and documented. Easy to see the effects of changes during programme if assumptions used differ from reality. Business Benefits : Reduced time to market Reduced rework