Climate Change in the Middle East: Complex Causes and Effects

Climate Change Predictions for MENA Higher temperatures (1-2 degree rise by 2050) Reduced or steady (low) precipitation Increased incidence of drought, heat waves Reduced surface water; increased stress on already depleted groundwater reserves Sea level rise of.5 meter by 2100 Reduction in agricultural output Relatively low carbon emissions--focus on adaptation Challenge for hydroelectric generation and irrigation

In an already arid region, climate change will reduce agricultural productivity through desertification and drought, increased soil salinity, inability to irrigate increase stress on urban populations and their access to safe water, inundate many coastal areas, forcing population relocation and further reducing agricultural output

Water is:  Geography:  climate change  Middle Eastern aridity  localized adaptation

Water is:  Science:  new desalinization techniques  Adaptation of new plants tolerant of higher salinity  traditional water gathering/storing/transporting  Newly discovered aquifers in the desert, etc.  New health challenges and disease vectors

Water is:  Economics: Agriculture Hydroelectric projects Fisheries Transportation Urbanization Tourism Restrictions on development

Water is:  Politics legitimacy for govts (GAP, Libya pipeline, agriculture in Israel, Jordan river/Golan) Food shortages/riots Inequities in water use/access disputes over river flows and water sovereignty (Tigris/Euphrates, bargaining chip in other issues) Exacerbation of conflict between neighbors (Israel/Palestine, Israel/Jordan, Turkey/Iraq) international challenge: how do we solve regional issues with global implications?

Water is:  Society: food riots in Egypt, urban centers with too little water, health problems from contaminated water due to reduced river flows, new environmentalist civil society vs. new aspirations

Water is:  Culture: marsh Arabs, Bedouin, urbanization, changing sustenance farming and fishing villages disruption of traditional water-sharing mechanisms

Four case studies: Egypt Turkey Iraq Israel-Palestine

Egypt

Egypt’s impact on global emissions

Sea Level Rise Effects on Egypt

Turkey

Istanbul skyline

Southeast Anatolian Project

Iraq

Tigris-Euphrates Flow

Measuring Salinity of Soil

Israel-Palestine

Jordan River

Unequal water access