5 January 2010 NCAR Research Applications Laboatory “Science in Service to Society” Roy Rasmussen Research Applications Laboratory

Non-profit corporation formed in 1959 to serve the atmospheric and related science and education community $215 million annual research funding (90% government –500 scientists in 1200 person organization 69 Member North American universities; 46 International affiliate institutions Operates NCAR (an FFRDC) and the UCAR Office of Programs (UOP) UCAR (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)

NESL NCAR Earth Systems Laboratory EOL Earth Observing Laboratory RAL Research Applications Laboratory CISL Computational and Information Sciences Lab NCAR Laboratories

Research Applications Laboratory Mission: To develop and transfer knowledge and technology to US government agencies, the private sector, and foreign governments –Expand the reach of atmospheric science into weather-sensitive human endeavors New uses for atmospheric science to benefit people and industry –Contribute to the depth of fundamental and practical understanding in atmospheric science Perform cutting-edge research –Develop new sources of support for such research –Partnerships with other groups Approach: normal business practices, including –Performance as promised –Emphasis on quality –Discussions regarding the “art of the possible” –Attention to customer needs “Science in Service to Society”

The RAL program has been built around the simple idea, well substantiated now, that there are weather inefficiencies and safety concerns built into the way that people (and industries) do things –Furthermore, if you can find a way to point this out, you can convince people to fund a program designed to mitigate these issues This leads to a program of directed research and technology transfer with substantial societal impact –Expands the reach of atmospheric sciences –Develops new sources of support for research –Contribute to the depth of fundamental and practical understanding We have many, many examples where such atmospheric research and development has led to societal benefit The societal need for better weather and climate information is quite far from being met, the vulnerability is increasing, and the recognized need is growing Mission Research Applications Laboratory

RAL application areas (examples) Aviation weather –Icing, snowfall, storms, turbulence, oceanic, ceiling, visibility, volcanic ash Hydrometeorology –Thunderstorm forecasting/nowcasting, rainfall estimation, surface hydrology, aerosol/precipitation studies, cloud seeding studies National security applications and range meteorology –NWP systems, applications (e.g., transport and diffusion), climate downscaling, urban meteorology Surface transportation –Road weather, decision support tools Testbed for advanced numerical techniques –WRF, data assimilation, new verification methods Climate Impacts –Regional adaptation to climate change –Climate and health Renewable energy –Wind, solar

RESEARCH APPLICATIONS Aviation Safety Microburst

RESEARCH APPLICATIONS Aviation Safety Microburst TECHNOLOGY Systems Engineering Real-Time Oper- ational Systems Specialized Displays Algorithm development System demonstration Validation End User

Thunderstorm Nowcasting Snowfall and Freezing Drizzle Precipitation & Air Chemistry Information Technology Reservoir of Capability Public Forecast Improvements Aviation Weather Hydromet- eorology Climate Impacts Surface Transportation Atmospheric Turbulence Land-Surface Modeling Systems Engineering Remote Sensing Numerical Weather Prediction Precip. Nowcasting Hybrid Forecast Techniques Wind Field Retrieval Hydrologic Applications Icing and Related Cloud Physics Real-Time Oper- ational Systems Specialized Displays National Security Energy Algorithm development System demonstration Validation End User Instrument Development & Evaluation Ceiling & Visibility Verification Research Social Science RESEARCH APPLICATIONS TECHNOLOGY Weather products Decision support aids Operational systems Expert advice Education Training Commercialization Advocacy

Thunderstorm Nowcasting Snowfall and Freezing Drizzle Precipitation & Air Chemistry Information Technology Reservoir of Capability Public Forecast Improvements Aviation Weather Hydromet- eorology Fire Weather Surface Transportation Atmospheric Turbulence Land-Surface Modeling Systems Engineering Remote Sensing Numerical Weather Prediction Precip. Nowcasting Hybrid Forecast Techniques RESEARCH TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS Wind Field Retrieval Hydrologic Applications Icing and Related Cloud Physics Real-Time Oper- ational Systems Specialized Displays National Security Marine Weather Algorithm development System demonstration Validation End User Instrument Development & Evaluation Ceiling & Visibility Weather products Decision support aids Operational systems Expert advice Education Training Commercialization Advocacy Verification Research Societal Impacts

Aviation Applications Program (AAP) Bruce Carmichael, Director National Security Applications Program (NSAP) Scott Swerdlin, Director Hydrometeorology Applications Program (HAP) Roy Rasmussen, Director Climate Science and Applications Program (CSAP) Lawrence Buja, Director Weather Systems and Assessment Program (WSAP) Bill Mahoney, Director Joint Numerical Testbed (JNT) Barb Brown, Director Research Applications Laboratory Brant Foote, Director Richard Wagoner, Deputy Director Liz Hoswell, Acting Administrator Organization (~ 225 people) Deputy Directors for engineering and science Emphasis on: Project mgmt structure Staffing matrix Steady history of growth

DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h WRF-NMM 10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05 Pronóstico Observado Falsas alarmas Ayudas Ausentes Societal Impacts and Social Science Some program history and highlights

Alphanumeric Alarm Display Graphical Situation Display Used by: Supervisors/Managers Controllers RAL’s first decision support tool (now have more than a dozen different examples)

U.S. Fatalities Associated with Aviation Wind Shear Accidents Wind Shear R&D Pilot Training TDWR * * Final accident report on AA accident at Little Rock, AR not completed. May be wind shear with 10 fatalities. No TDWR system at Little Rock. Source: NTSB Weather: 70% of delays > 15 min 1/4 of all accidents

Aviation Weather R&D at NCAR 27 years of progress

ceiling & visibility ground de-icing support In-flight icing clear-air turbulence terrain-induced turbulence volcanic ash convective weather Aviation Weather R&D at NCAR

NASA — ASAP Program NASA — ASAP Program NASA’s “Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products” initiative was started in 2002 to help transfer new satellite observing systems and products into operational use through by means of a collaborative effort with the FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP). Current program elements at NCAR include:  In-flight Icing  Turbulence  Convective Weather  Space Weather (ADDS)  NextGen Support External collaborators include:  NASA LaRC  Uinversity of Wisconsn CIMSS  Univ. of Alabama Huntsville  MIT/LL & NRL-Monterey

Incorporating NASA satellite products… Current Icing Product (CIP) Enhancement Testing NASA cloud-top estimate and satellite-derived cloud phase parameter shows reduction of over-predicted icing areas and improvement in PODn. Operational CIP Method Experimental NASA Enhancements

Feature Identification… MODIS Water Vapor Imagery Helps Identify Mountain Waves Clear-air mountain wave features over Colorado, visualized using enhanced 6.7μm satellite imagery (figure courtesy UW-CIMSS). Complex wave patterns with intersecting features may be related to moderate or greater turbulence. Red & orange circles show pilot reports with moderate or greater turbulence.

Activities started more recently Renewable energy Climate change in relation to: –Water resources –Health –Urban emissions, adaptation, & vulnerability –Assessing vulnerability and adaptation in native communities (ASP post doc)

Colorado Headwaters Convective Parameterization NCAR Water System Program How Does the Water Cycle Change as Climate Changes? Societal Impacts Global Water Cycle Studies Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation In the Lee of Topography 1D cloud model

NCAR Research Applications Laboratory DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h WRF-NMM 10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05 Pronóstico Observado Falsas alarmas Ayudas Ausentes