Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 13 Energy Calculation Review & Some Important Quantities.

Per Capita Value Compare the per capita energy consumption in the US with per capita energy consumption in China. US: 97 x Btu/ 284x10 6 = 342 million Btu China: 40 x Btu/ 1.29x10 9 = 31 million Btu

Unit Conversion Annual hydroelectric energy consumed in the US equals 209 billion kWh Convert this value to Btu, using the conversion factor: 10,400 Btu/kWh 2.09x10 11 kwh x 1.04 x10 4 Btu/kWh =2.2 x10 15 Btu = 2.2 QBtu

Daily Value US annual oil consumption equals 7.2 Gbo. Express this value in millions of barrels per day. US Oil consumption = 7.2x10 9 bbl/ 365 days = 20 million bbl/day (11 million bbl day imported)

Global Population Growth Current Global Population: 6.3 billion Growth Rate = 1.15 % Population Growth = x 6.3 billion = 73 million

Simple Lifetime Assuming constant level of consumption, estimate the lifetime of US oil resources Lifetime = 98 Gbo / 7.2 Gbo/year = 14 years What is wrong with this assumption?

Growth Rate In 2000, China consumed 40.1 QBtu of Primary energy. In 2001, this value jumped to 41.9 QBtu From this data estimate the growth rate in G = (41.9 – 40.1)/40.1 = 0.045%

Doubling Time During 2003, India consumed 13 QBtu of primary energy. Suppose the growth of Indian energy consumption equals 5%. What will be India’s consumption level in 2059? DT = 70 / 5 = 14 years 56 y / 14 y = 4 Doubles 4 times: 2x2x2x2 = 16 In 2059: 16 x 13 = 208 QBtu

Temperature Conversions  T (F) = 1.8  T( o C) Temperature rise of 5 o C is equivalent to a temperature rise of 9 F T (F) = 1.8 T(C) + 32 F 5 o C is equivalent to 41 F

Calculate US Carbon Emissions US Carbon Emission = 26 MMT/QBtu x 22 QBtu + 19 MMT/QBtu x 38 Qbtu + 14 MMT/QBtu x 23 QBtu = 1.6 Billion Metric Tons

Fraction US / Global = 1.6 BMT / 6.6 BMT = 24 % The US emits 24% of Global CO2.

Concepts Energy Growth Global Warming

The QBtu Best energy unit for global scale is quadrillion Btu (QBtu) 1 QBtu = 1x10 15 Btu A Btu = British Thermal Unit

Oil and Gas Units Gbo billion barrels of oil. G stands for Giga. Used for global and US oil resources TCF trillion cubic feet. Used for global and US natural gas resources.

Reserves and Resources Reserves are known sources that are extractable with current technologies at current prices. Resources include sources not currently being exploited because of cost and sources not yet discovered.

Fossil Fuels Coal, Natural Gas, and Oil are fossil fuels and are the source of 85% of the primary energy used worldwide.

World Primary Energy Consumption (QBtu) Global 403 US 97 Western Europe 73 China 40 (2001 values)

Global Energy Consumption (QBtu) Petroleum 156 (39%) Coal 96 (24%) Natural Gas 93 (23%) Hydro 27 (7%) Nuclear 26 (6%) Renewables 5 (1%)

Global Oil Resources Saudi Arabia26% Iraq11% Iran10% Kuwait10% UAE 6% Russia 5% United States 3%

Global Oil Production Saudi Arabia12% United States11% Russia10% Iran 5% Mexico 5%

When will Global Oil Production Peak?  Difficult to predict.  Depends on geology and economics.  Best estimates are sometime between 2004 and 2050.

Coal Resources and Consumption Global Recoverable 1,000 billion tons Global Consumption 5.2 billion tons/year US Recoverable 274 billion tons US Consumption 1.1 billion tons/year

US Oil Reserves, Resources, Consumption Oil Reserves 22 Gbo Resources 98 Gbo Consumption 7.2 Gbo

US Production Peaked in 1970

US Sources of Energy (QBtu) 56% of oil consumed in US is imported

Global Coal Resources United States 25% Russia 16% China 12% India 9% Australia 8% Germany 7%

US Energy Consumption (QBtu) Petroleum 38 (39%) Coal 22 (23%) Natural Gas 23 (24%) Nuclear 8 (8%) Hydroelectric 3 (3%) Renewables 3 (3%)

US Coal Consumption 80% used by electric utilities

US Population Growth Current US Population: 293 million Growth Rate = 0.87% Population Growth = x 293 million = 2.5 million 2050 Population: 403 million

Global Population Growth Current Global Population: 6.3 billion Growth Rate = 1.15 % Population Growth = x 6.3 billion = 73 million 2050 Population: 9.1 billion

Global Population Growth More/Less Developed Countries Now World: 6.3 billion MDC: 1.20 LDC: World: 9.1 billion MDC: 1.25 billion LDC: 7.84 billion

Growth in Energy Consumption MDCs & LDCs Now World: 400 QBtu MDC: 270 QBtu LDC: 130 QBtu 2050* World: 800 QBtu MDC: 320 QBtu LDC: 480 QBtu * A mid-range prediction

The Earth is in an Interglacial Period  Last Glacial Maximum was 18,000 years ago and Global temperature was approximately 10 F colder than now  The last ice age ended 11,000 years ago.

Average Earth Temperature increased 0.6 o C (1 F) during 20 th Century

Current temperature: highest in 1000 years.

Greenhouse Gases Carbon dioxide – fossil fuel combustion. Methane – fossil fuel production, decomposition of organic wastes. Nitrous oxide - agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of solid waste and fossil fuels.

Global warming is anthropogenic.

Humans emit 24 billion tons per year. 60% stays in atmosphere Increases atmospheric CO 2 by 0.4% / year. 25% increase from 280 ppm to 350 ppm Atmospheric CO 2

Temperature Increase: 1.5 o C – 6 o C by 2100

Global warming  Extinctions “ When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (18%) than mid-range (24%) and maximum- change (35%) scenarios.”

Global Carbon Emission Global Carbon Emission of C in the form of CO2: 6.6 billion metric tons Convert to CO2: 44/12 x 6.6 billion metric tons = 24 billion metric tons

Adaptation and Mitigation