The Democrats The Sprint that Turned into A Marathon

The Rules Matter  Proportional Representation with a 15% threshold  There is a prize for second place  Once you get a lead, it is hard to lose it

The Democratic Field  Those who didn’t run  Those who ran, but had not chance  Those who mattered

Those Who Didn’t Run  Gore  Kerry  Mark Warner  Evan Bayh

Those Who Had Little Chance  Dennis Kucinich  Mike Gravel

Other Also Rans  Chris Dodd  Bill Richardson

Joe Biden

The Top Tier- Those Who Mattered  Hillary Clinton  Barack Obama  John Edwards

John Edwards

Hillary Clinton- Advantages  Fundraising  Name Recognition  Experience

Hillary Clinton- Disadvantages  Polarizing  Iraq Vote  The Clinton Years

Obama in 2004, A Rise from Obscurity  Benefits from A Primary and General Election Scandal  Steals the Show at the 2004 Democratic Convention

Obama’s Strengths and Weaknesses  Strengths  Weaknesses

THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY

The Early Money Game  Clinton and Obama Forgo public money  Advantages of this for the candidates

Clinton’s Money Strategy  Scare off Potential Rivals  Control the debate through spending  Use the expected early victory to reload

Why the Clinton Strategy fails  Obama almost matches her 2007 Haul  How Obama does it

Delegate Strategy  Obama’s Strategy  Clinton’s Strategy

Electoral Bases  Obama Younger voters Upper-income voters Liberals and Netroots African-Americans  Clinton Women Lower & Middle Class Hispanics Originally African- Americans

Obama’s Message  About Himself  About Clinton

Clinton’s Message  About Herself  About Obama

December 31, 2007  Clinton Leads by 17% Nationwide  Obama on the Rise  Obama Leads in Some Iowa Polls

THE CAMPAIGN BEGINS (Finally)

The Iowa Results

Iowa- Why Obama Wins  Obama Outworks Clinton  Enthusiasm and Turnout were high

The Fallout  The Losers Leave  This is a disaster for Clinton  The Rocky IV AnalogyAnalogy

New Hampshire  Some said this was Clinton’s Last chance  Clinton Comes back hard on Obama

The New Hampshire Primary

The Results  Clinton Regains Her Base  Richardson is done  Edward’s is now the 3 rd of 3 candidates

S.C. and the Change in African- American support  Obama wins by 28 Points  Edward’s drops out  African American support tilts to Obama  The Clintons get angry

Nevada, Michigan and Florida  Clinton wins Michigan and Florida, but no one cares  Clinton wins Nevada, but loses the delegate count

Super Tuesday: The supposed Clinton Coronation.  Obama wins 13 states  Clinton Wins more votes but fewer Delegates  No knockout blow  Clinton Trails by 55 delegates at days end

The Clinton Camp in Disarray  No Money  No Strategy

March 4 th : Clinton’s last chance  February Belongs to Obama  Texas and Ohio  American meets William Ayers

The 3:00 AM Ad

March 4 th favors Clinton  Popular vote wins in Both States  BUT Marginal delegate gains

The Final Months  Jeremiah Wright and the Speech on RaceWright  Proportional Representation  Clinton’s Last Grasp

Putting Superdelegates to the Test  Obama’s belief  Clinton’s Counter  The Last Day of Voting

How Obama Won  Money  Knowing the Rules

How Obama Won- Caucuses  Advantages  Results

The Advantage of the Long Campaign  Scrutiny  Kept him in the News  Tested his leadership  Made the party enthusiastic