How Might Future Climate Change Affect Lake Temperature, Mixing, Algae, and Small Invertebrates? John T. Lehman University of Michigan 15 June 2001.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Ecology & the Environment
Advertisements

Principles of Ecology You will describe ecology and the work of ecologists. You will identify important aspects of an organism’s environment You will trace.
The Geography of Biological Diversity. Species-Area Curves S = species richness A = size of the sampling plot (eg. m 2 ) c and z are fitting parameters.
Principles of Ecology Chapter 2.
CONSERVATION ECOLOGY.
Populations.
Chapter 10 Marine Ecology Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display.
1 Community Ecology Chapter Biological Communities A community consists of all the species that occur together at any particular locality.
Chapter 10 Marine Ecology.
Marine Ecology Shipley’s Marine Biology.   Ecology is the interaction between organisms and their environment.  These interactions affect the survival.
Indicator Species. What is an indicator species? A species whose presence, absence or abundance reflects a specific environmental condition, habitat or.
Introduction to Ecology
There are levels of organization in an ecosystem:
Roadmap for remaining lectures: 1.Combine the abiotic world (Earth + Climate) with the biotic world (life). A. First talk about “Ecosystems”, and generally.
The Ocean’s primary Productivity
Biotic & Abiotic Influences
The interaction of organisms with the environment.
Community  Collection of species populations  Members from most kingdoms  Linked in a web  Mainly predator/prey  Environment & habitat / Dominant.
Grade 9 Academic Science – Unit Ecosystems The following is a set up “Flip Card” to help learn the definitions of the ecosystem unit.
An ecosystem is made up of a community of organisms and the non-living environment. The living components of the ecosystem are called biotic factors, which.
Ecosystems and Communities
ECOLOGY CHAPTERS Study of the interactions between organisms & the living & non-living components of their environment.
Ecology.
Ecosystems and Communities Chapter 20. The role of Climate  What is climate? –Temperature, precipitation, other environmental factors combine to produce.
Ecology.
Chapter 56: Conservation Biology and Global Change
Climates April 25, 2013 Mr. Alvarez. What is Climate?  Weather- The day-to-day conditions of Earth’s atmosphere at a particular time and place  Climate-
BIOMES If a friend asked you, “Where do you live?” you would give them your street address. But what if someone asked you to describe the BIOME that you.
4-2 What Shapes an Ecosystem?
Ch. 18- Ecology - The Biosphere. What is Ecology? It is the scientific study of interaction among organisms and between organisms and their environment.
ECOLOGY. What is Ecology? Ecology is the scientific study of the relationship between organisms and their environment Ecologists study these relationships.
Ecosystems and Communities Chapter The Role of Climate What is climate? –Weather is temperature, precipitation, other environmental factors –It.
Ecosystems and Communities Chapter 4. 4–1 The Role of Climate.
2.1 Ecosystem Structure. Ecosystems Have Living and Nonliving Components Abiotic – Non-living Water Air Nutrients Rocks Heat Solar energy Biotic- Living.
Mrs. Geist Biology, Fall Swansboro High School.
ECOLOGY (Ch ) 1 Species dispersal and distribution Why is species X absent from an area? Does dispersal limit its distribution? Does behavior.
Ecosystems and Communities Interdependence in Nature Chapter 4.
Click on a lesson name to select. Population Biology Lesson 6.
Interactions in Ecosystems 2 CHAPTER Ecosystems are made up of living things (biotic factors) and non-living things (abiotic factors), which are connected.
Warm Up 2/10 & 2/11 1.In which trophic level would you place an herbivore? 2.How much energy is transferred from one trophic level to the next? 3.In which.
Ecosystems and Communities. What is Climate? Weather is the day-to-day condition of Earth’s atmosphere at a particular time and place Weather is the day-to-day.
Chapter 4: Evolution, Biological Communities, and Species Interactions Advanced Environmental Science.

Ecology & the Environment. Chapter 20 Ecology Study of the interactions that take place among organisms and their environment.
LAST PERSON STADING ECOLOGY EDITION. 1. A certain plant requires moisture, oxygen, carbon dioxide, light, and minerals in order to survive. This statement.
200 pt 300 pt 400 pt 500 pt 100 pt 200 pt 300 pt 400 pt 500 pt 100 pt 200 pt 300 pt 400 pt 500 pt 100 pt 200 pt 300 pt 400 pt 500 pt 100 pt 200 pt 300.
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Invasive Species Process Studies —the foundation of ecosystem.
Heat Transfer in the Biosphere – Winds and Currents Similar patterns of heating and cooling occur in Earth’s _______. Cold water near the poles ______.
ECOSYSTEMS.
Chapter 17 Biological Communities Coach Fults. Interaction Among Species Some interactions among species are the result of a long evolutionary history.
ECOSYSTEMS Mr. Harper 8 th Grade Science. WHAT’S AN ECOSYSTEM? Ecosystems are complex, interactive systems that include both biological communities (biotic)
Ecology One. Planet Earth _w&feature=related _w&feature=related.
Chapter 3: The Biosphere. What is Ecology? Scientific study of interactions among organisms and between organisms and their environment. Scientific study.
Climate and Ecosystems. 4-1 The Role of Climate Weather: day-to-day condition at a particular place and time Climate: average, year-after-year conditions.
Ecology. Scientific study of the interactions between __________ and their environment.
Ecology & the Environment. Study of the interactions that take place among organisms and their environment. Chapter 20.
Ecology 1.Ecosystems 2.Biomes 3.Ecosystem Interactions 4.Cycles of Matter 5.Ecosystem Response to Change Resources 1.Skim Chapters Vocab Chart.
Biomes by Windows User.
Ecology & the Environment
Chapter 4: Ecosystems & Communities
4-2 What Shapes an Ecosystem?
Ecosystems and Community
Define: Community, Ecosystem, Biome
Populations.
Chapter 8 Understanding Populations
Ecology & the Environment
Ecosystems a community of living organisms in conjunction with the non-living components of their environment (things like air, water, and soil), interacting.
AIR BIOLOGY REVIEW Ecology.
Ecology Review.
Presentation transcript:

How Might Future Climate Change Affect Lake Temperature, Mixing, Algae, and Small Invertebrates? John T. Lehman University of Michigan 15 June 2001

What types of Ecological Knowledge do we need to understand and predict the effects of climate change? What types of Ecological Surprises might occur? How can we obtain an environmental insurance policy against detrimental effects and surprises? Climate Change and the Great Lakes

Air Temperature Humidity Winds Precipitation Cloud Cover UV Radiation What are the climate forces that are likely to change?

Lake surface temperature Evaporation rates Surface currents and mixing depths Duration of thermal stratification Ice cover What physical features of the lakes are sensitive to these forces?

General Types of Ecological Knowledge Individuals and Single Populations Population Interactions Communities Materials and Energy

Uniqueness of individuals (sexual, asexual reproduction) Life history and demography Behavior Genetics and evolution Sex ratios Dispersion and distribution Individuals and Single Populations

Predator-Prey (and defense mechanisms) Parasitism Symbiosis: mutualism, commensalism Competition (exploitation, interference) Indirect Effects Fundamental and Realized Niche Population Interactions

Species Composition, Richness, Diversity Indicator Species Trophic Structure Keystone Species Stability and Resilience Invadability Substitutability Ecological Succession Communities

Primary Production Secondary Production Bioenergetics Biogeochemistry Biological Magnification or Concentration Materials and Energy

Do we possess complete catalogs of ecological knowledge about the species now present in the Great Lakes? Managing in the Face of Uncertainty Absolutely not! Does the knowledge we do possess permit us to make any predictions at all? Certainly.

Projected duration of thermal stratification under Canadian Climate Centre climate scenario.

Projected maximum temperature of the mixed layer under Hadley Centre climate scenario.

Projected average temperature of the mixed layer under Canadian Climate Centre climate scenario.

Projected average temperature of the lake bottom at average lake depth under Hadley Centre climate scenario.

Projected minimum mixing depth under Canadian Climate Centre climate scenario.

Existing theory about algal ecology teaches us that mixing pattern is a Master Variable for algal population growth and community composition. Given extended thermal stratification and elevated temperatures, what are the: effects on Diatoms? effects on colonial Greens and Bluegreens? Ecological Effects on the Algae

Existing ecological knowledge points to an impending change from fast-growing, opportunistic, rapid-sinking species to slower growing, stress-tolerant, loss-minimizing species. Rapid-sinking diatom species are presently key to the transfer of energy-rich food from the water column to the sediments, and to the benthic food web. Ecological Effects on the Algae

Most of the Great Lakes are presently optically shallow, in the sense that much light reaches below the mixed layer and permits the growth of metalimnetic and hypolimnetic algal populations. Climate factors alone will not change this condition. However, if nutrient loading from watersheds and airsheds increase, the optical state could change. Ecological Effects on the Algae

Metabolism by invertebrates varies with temperature. Temperature affects Growth rate Egg and embryo development Generation time Feeding, respiration, and excretion But temperature also raises the metabolism and activity of most lake predators on the invertebrates, as well. Ecological Effects on Lake Invertebrates

Most of the Great Lakes presently harbor a group of cold stenothermic invertebrate species which cannot tolerate warm temperatures. Deep, cold water habitat for these species will not disappear. However, the oxygen content of that habitat could become compromised by the end of the thermal stratification period, particularly if nutrient loading were to increase. Ecological Effects on Lake Invertebrates

Increased foraging and predation by planktivorous fish will result in changes of invertebrate species toward small bodied forms. The vertical range of zebra mussels may expand, but other benthic invertebrates may suffer from diminished inputs of high quality diatoms as food, and from potential decreases in oxygen. Ecological Effects on Lake Invertebrates

Complex interactions among many species increase the likelihood of indirect effects, some of which will lead to ecological surprises. Species invasions New or invigorated parasites Changes in breeding windows Altered distribution patterns Ecological Surprises

Further surprises await us regarding the transformations and fates of environmental toxins. Some toxins, such as Mercury or PCBs, become biomagnified up a food chain. Their chemistry, transport, and effects are tied to biology.

Increase rates at which dissolved elemental mercury is oxidized to ionic mercury Increase rates of methylation of ionic mercury Increase accumulation of methyl mercury in food chains leading to large fish Ecological Surprises For example, elevated UV radiation and elevated temperature could

Science relies on the testimony of evidence rather than the fervor of belief. Observation and theory are the antidotes to ignorance, fear, and doubt. Thoughtful measurements and analyses can provide an early warning system for changes within the Great Lakes ecosystem. How does the rational Public protect itself from disaster and surprise?

Regional assessment of Great Lakes response to environmental changes must become a regular activity. This assessment has uncovered many gaps in ecological knowledge that must be filled. Research and reporting collaborations among federal agencies, academic scientists, and interested citizens require public support. How does the rational Public protect itself from disaster and surprise?

Special thanks to Art Brooks and the Workshop sponsors. GCM-projected climate data for the Great Lakes were supplied by NOAA-GLERL.