Thomas Veillet December 16 th IT’S OVER !!!

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 2 Top Words of 2008  Bailout  Subprime  Credit Crisis  State Banks  Billions  Trillions  Paulson (Hank)  Paulson (John)  Bernanke  AIG  Lehman  Bear Stearns  Bear Market  Volatility  Obama  Chapter 11  Foreclosure  Oil  Commodities  Hedge Funds  Leverage  Capital Protected  ETF  Rate cut  Automaker  Worst off reverse convertible  Jérôme Madoff

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 3 Picture of the year / S&P

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 4 NRJ Award of the year 96$147$40.5$ What a ride…

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 5 Gold Medal

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 6 Vix : A Brand New World… 89% 10%

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 7 Hedge Fund Year HFRX US Global Hedge Fund Index Net Asset Value

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 8 Man of the year

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 9 Numbers of the year  700 Billions TARP  89.53% of Volatility on the S&P500  200 Billions for Freddie & Fannie  130 Billions for AIG  306 Billions for Citigroup  540 Billions for Mortgage refinancing  1000 Euros, price paid on Volkswagen on the 28th of October  -60% performance of the China Index CSI300  -70% performance of the Russian Index  10 trillions is the value in $, destroyed by the US market this year  100$, the spread between the top and the low of the year for the barel  historical high for the Gold, the 8th of April 2008  +33% Best performance of the S&P500 for 2008 (Rohm & Haas)  % Worst performance of the S&P500 for 2008 (AIG)  50 billions dollars fraud

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 10 Key dates for 2008  January 24 (S&P )  The National Association of Realtors announced that 2007 has seen the largest drop in existing home sales in 25 years. We speak about « Great Depression »  March 16 (S&P )  Bear Stearns is out of the game, JP Morgan make a « take-under » at 2$. The deal is backed by the FED providing $30B to cover possible losses.  May 6 (S&P1418)  UBS announce that they gonna cut 5’500 by middle 2009  June 18 (S&P1337)  Christopher Dodd (Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee) propose le Bailout de Countrywide Financial and admit at the same time that he got some support from the same Countrywide during is campaign  June 19 (S&P )  Ex_Bear Stearns Fund Managers were arrested for fraud. They misrepresented the real value of their funds.

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 11 Key dates for 2008  July 11 (S&P )  Indymac Bank is gone… It became the fourth largest bank failure in US. The Credit Crisis start to take it’s toll. Indy was the seventh larger originator of mortgage in USA, and the Crude Oil is hitting historical new high, we’ve never see that level since then.  July 17 (S&P )  Major banks and financial institutions had borrowed and invested heavily in mortgage backed securities and reported losses of approximately $435 billion as of 17 July 2008  July 30 (S&P )  President Bush signs a law who ‘s going to give some help to subprime borrowers. Bill : 300 $BN..  September 7 (S&P )  Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which at that point owned or guaranteed about half of the U.S.'s $12 trillion mortgage market, effectively nationalizing them. This causes panic because almost every home mortgage lender and Wall Street bank relied on them to facilitate the mortgage market and investors worldwide owned $5.2 trillion of debt securities backed by them.

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 12 Key dates for 2008  September 14 (S&P )  Merill Lynch is gone… sold to Bank of America to avoid chapter 11  September 15 (S&P )  Lehman Brother is gone… This time the Government failed to find a solution and Lehman is out of the game and filing for chapter 11. Didn’t apply for the rule « to big to fail »  September 16 (S&P )  The Genius from Moody’s & S&P are downgrading the rating of AIG forcing them to go on the ground.  September 17 (S&P )  The US Federal Reserve loans $85 billion to American International Group (AIG) to avoid bankruptcy.  September 21 (S&P )  Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley becomes banks  September 23 (S&P 1188)  Paulson propose a first version of the Rescue plan

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 13 Key dates for 2008  September 25 (S&P )  Washington Mutual was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and its banking assets were sold to JP MorganChase for $1.9bn.  September 29 (S&P )  Wachovia is out of the game, reminds will be boughts by Citigroup, but a fight will explode between Wells Fargo & Citi and Wells Fargo will get the cake.  October 1 (S&P )  US Senate passes the 700 billions TARP plan, President will sign it on the 3rd. The Hedge Funds Insustry have had their worst month since… a longtime. Credit Crisis is spreading in Europe.  Warren Buffet invest in Goldman Sachs  October 6-10 (S&P )  Worst week for the stock market in 75 years. The Dow Jones lost 22.1 percent, its worst week on record, down 40.3 percent since reaching a record high of 14, October 9, The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 18.2 percent, its worst week since 1933, down 42.5 percent in since its own high October 9, 2007

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 14 Key date for 2008  October 6 (S&P )  Fed will provide $900 billion in short-term cash loans to banks  October 7 (S&P )  Fed makes emergency move to lend around $1.3 trillion directly to companies outside the financial sector.  October 8 (S&P )  Central banks in USA, England, China, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland and the European Central Bank cut rates in a coordinated effort to aid world economy.  Fed also reduced its emergency lending rate to banks by half a percentage point, to 1.75 percent.  White House considers taking ownership stakes in private banks as a part of the bailout bill.  October 11 (S&P )  Historical record of volatility 89.53%, even Michael Phelps couldn’t go that fast…  The G7, meet in Washington and agree to urgent and exceptional coordinated action to prevent the credit crisis from throwing the world into depression. The G7 did not agree on the concrete plan that was hoped for.

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 15 Key dates for 2008  October 16 (S&P )  The Swiss Confederation in becoming shareholder of UBS.  October 21 (S&P )  The US Federal Reserve announces it will spend $540 billion to purchase short-term debt from money market mutual funds.  November 4  Barack « Superman » Obama has landed  November 12 (S&P )  Treasury Secretary Paulson abandons plan to buy toxic assets under the $700 billion troubled asset relief program (TARP). Mr. Paulson said the remaining $410 billion in the fund would be better spent on recapitalizing financial companies.  November 15 (S&P )  The group of 20 of the world’s largest economies meets in Washington DC and releases a statement of the meeting. Although no detailed plans were agreed upon, the meeting focused on implementing policies consistent with five principles; 1) strengthening transparency and accountability, 2) improving regulation, 3) promoting market integrity, 4) reinforcing cooperation, and 5) reforming international institutions.

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 16 Key dates for 2008  November 24 (S&P )  Citigroup is rescued and becomes most recent bailout in history (until GM, Chrysler & Ford).. Government will inject more than 20 billions in capital and offer a guarantee up to 300 billions for toxic assets.  December 10 (S&P )  Automaker got their bailout almost…  December 12 (S&P )  Senat says : NO !!!! Gm, Chrysler & Ford are back to hybrid again…  But Treasury says : YES BUT!!!... This story can on forever…  December 15 (S&P )  Bernard Madoff is kicking Jérôme Kerviel out of the first place.. And is taking a huge lead over the rest….  December 16 (S&P850)  Fed is cutting rates… again we’re getting very close to 0.25%

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 17 Merry X-Mas & Happy New Year

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 18 Quotes of the year  "And according to 'The Washington Post,' during his eight years in office, President Bush spent 2,496 hours on the treadmill, elliptical machine, and mountain bike. And spent another 15 minutes working on the economy." --Jay Leno

Thomas Veillet Morningbull 19 Solution for 2009