Meeting future demand for rental housing for lower income older Australians: social or market sector supply? Andrew Jones Housing Policy Research Program,

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Pathways to Housing … The Experiences of Sponsored Refugees and Refugee Claimants in Accessing Permanent Housing in Toronto Robert Murdie Geography Department.
Advertisements

The territorial implications of demographic change in the North Sea Region – scope for a transnational planning approach? Stefanie Dühr, Radboud University.
March 2012 Ports and Cities Conference Newcastle Dorte Ekelund, Executive Director Major Cities Unit Department of Infrastructure and Transport
Demographics and Market Segmentation: China and India
Private Rented Sector: Montague and beyond Mary Stallebrass Department for Communities and Local Government CIC 19 November 2012.
Towards a Sustainable Private Rented Sector in the UK Lessons from Abroad What we have learned? Kath Scanlon and Christine Whitehead.
State Housing Needs 1. Housing Needs and Community Economic Vitality are Intertwined Economic conditions drive housing need and demand. Unaddressed housing.
Aging Seminar Series: Income and Wealth of Older Americans Domestic Social Policy Division Congressional Research Service November 19, 2008.
Public policy history and overview of affordable housing issues Adam Farrar.
“Real Estate Principles for the New Economy”: Norman G. Miller and David M. Geltner Chapter 5 Residential Market Analysis.
CEET Conference 2011 Funding VET for Social Inclusion Competitive tendering and contestable funding in VET: approaches to supporting access and equity.
RCVS Network Meeting - Health & Social Care 3 rd June 2014 Richmond Council Update Cathy Kerr, Director Adult & Community Services.
Housing Market Demand and Needs Study 2007 Planning sub-group - Scrutiny Committee 11th December 2007 Shahla Zandi / Matt Doherty.
Shelter Training 08b – Belgium, 16 th –18 th November, 2008 based on content developed by p This session identifies the six transitional reconstruction.
Social Housing Germany Experiences and current issues Thomas Knorr-Siedow.
The Urban Infrastructure Challenge in Canada: Focusing on Housing Affordability and Choice Presentation by CHBA – [Name] to The Municipal Council of [Name]
AUSTRALIAN DEVELOPMENTS IN WELFARE TO WORK Budget
Kathleen Dunmore Three Dragons 13 October 2010 Modelling demand for older persons accommodation.
Finance for Rental Housing Steve Bevington Managing Director Community Housing Limited Group, Australia.
Housing options Dream or reality? affordable housing in western Sydney 17 th August 2010.
Heads of Planning in Scotland Annual Conference, 11/12 June 2015 Keith Anderson CEO Port of Leith Housing Association, and Chair of Chartered Institute.
The Australasian private rental sector; A tenure under severe stress Professor Terry Burke.
Housing Affordability: has the great Australian dream ended? Judy Yates University of Sydney.
P. Gurstein & A. Lesnikowski, UBC Vancouver Presented At ACSP 2014 Conference.
Aging in A Mid-Sized City: The Experiences of Seniors in Kelowna's Housing Market Heather Brown and Carlos Teixeira (University of British Columbia – Okanagan)
Bowen Island Affordable Housing Needs. What is a housing needs assessment? Current housing situation Future trends Gap between demand and supply at various.
Age-specific housing in Australia are low income people adequately served: A provider and policy perspective Catherine Bridge 1 ; Laura Davy 1; Bruce Judd.
Local Housing Strategy. LHS Presentation Angus LHS Review New Style LHS LHS Guidance 2008.
The Future Delivery of Housing Steve Normington Director of Economy Confident Places Scrutiny Committee.
Presented by: ECONorthwest March 3, Agenda Project progress report (5 minutes) Preliminary results of the HNA (20 minutes) Presentation by ECONorthwest.
CO-OPERATIVE HOUSING FROM HIPPIE IMAGE TO VIABLE SUSTAINABLE HOUSING DR TOM ALVES PRESENTATION TO THE THRIVING NEIGHBOURHOODS CONFERENCE OCTOBER 2013.
Accommodation and associated services for older people in Northern Ireland: future need and demand Chris Paris, Emeritus Professor of Housing Studies,
Ministerial Forum on Homelessness and Social Housing Where we are today Dr Ian Winter Executive Director Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.
The housing scenarios facing young people in PRS 2020 David Clapham, Peter Mackie.
David Cowans Group Chief Executive Places for People.
IPC The Regional Housing Market for Older People in the South West Exeter 24th th September 2008.
An exploration of female home ownership patterns in Australia 18 th European Real Estate Society Conference Eindhoven, 15 th – 18 th June 2011 Valerie.
The Housing Affordability Challenge Judy Yates September 12th, 2007 Presentation based on results from AHURI NRV3 Final Report and associated Research.
1 1 Finance & Investment Club Real Estate Sector Summer 2012 Real Estate Senior Analyst : Christian Woo.
Regional Housing Group and Sub-Regional Housing Priorities Councillor Peter Connor – Lead Member for Housing Bob Osborne – Deputy Director – Housing and.
BROKENHEAD COMMUNITY SUSTAINABLE HOUSING INITIATIVE OCT. 6,
Housing Delivery Conor Skehan Chairman, Housing Agency Meeting Housing Demand in Fingal 12 th November 2014.
Housing Studies Association conference paper Assessing the growth of the private rented sector: choice versus constraints Paul Sissons and Donald Houston.
Halifax Housing Needs Assessment Planning & Development CDAC October 28, 2015.
Thinking differently about housing solutions A life for the new generation A life that combines the best of home life and work life YNYER HOUSING NETWORK.
OneMECK Affordable Housing Overview January 5, 2016.
Affordable Housing Delivery by the Private Sector Lessons from elsewhere Integrated Housing Delivery CfHE 2015 Symon Sentain Symon Sentain Associates.
Real Estate Finance Residential decision making: Buy or lease?
Provision of social housing REPORT OF THE AUDITOR-GENERAL No. 8 of 2015–16.
Laying the Groundwork Report Tables and Charts 1 fairersaferhousing.vic.gov.au.
Commonwealth Housing Task Force Zoning Overlay Districts & State Financing Recommendations May 28, 2003.
19553 Blue Lake Loop Bend, OR Tel: 541/ City of Redmond Affordable Housing Plan Phase II: Affordable Housing Strategies November 14, 2006.
Ireland’s Social Housing Strategy: Opportunities and Challenges Bairbre Nic Aongusa Department of the Environment, Community & Local Government, IRELAND.
The Housing and Support Partnership, Stanelaw House, Sutton Lane, Sutton, Witney, OX29 5RY. Tel:
@CHEconDev [ Chapel Hill: Housing ] Come Learn with us: Affordable Housing IV Come Learn with us Chapel Hill: Affordable Housing – 30 years.
Changing Housing Density? Insights from the 2006 Census and Implications for Future Sustainability Professor Andrew Beer School of Geography, Population.
Parental background and young adults’ housing outcomes in England and Wales, Rory Coulter SLLS Annual Conference, Dublin, 19/10/2015.
IPC Assessing Regional Housing Markets and Developing Effective Strategies for Meeting Older Peoples Housing Demands in the South West Region June 2008.
Affordability Later in Life. Future markets for older people’s housing June 2011.
In Our Own Homes- Working with older adults with moderate learning disabilities/complex needs Kathie Martin Care & Repair England.
Wootton Bridge Parish Council Housing Needs Assessment 2013 Report summary.
STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY PRESENTATION
Active asset management to unlock financial capacity
Affordable housing: current outlook and challenges for the future Professor Christine Whitehead, LSE and CCHPR, University of Cambridge Westminster Social.
The ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’
Housing and Homelessness Sector Briefing
22/09/2018
Developing a Strategic Approach to Housing for Older People
Delivering Central Bedfordshire Council’s Vision for Accommodation for Older People Julie Ogley Director of Social Care Health and Housing 1.
MEETING 2 Developing Objectives
Presentation transcript:

Meeting future demand for rental housing for lower income older Australians: social or market sector supply? Andrew Jones Housing Policy Research Program, UQ and AHURI Qld Research Centre Housing Researchers Conference, June 2007, Brisbane

2 The population group Lower income older renters Defined as those aged 65+ with income below $600 per week (lowest quartile) Renting in many types of dwellings and arrangements (10 types identified) Older renters are a minority group % of the older population and 13.9% of older householders 58% are female; 57.8% aged 65-74; 32.5% 75-84; 9.7% 85+ Most older renters have a pension as their main income source (87% compared with 60% for owner-occupiers) Low income: 54.3% less than $400 pw compared with 37.7% owner- occupiers Almost half (48%) of older rental households are lone person households compared with 26% for owner-occupiers Tenure divided between the social and market sectors: 5.0% public, 0.7% community; 5.4% market

3 The policy problem ‘The persistence of the great divide between owners and renters’ (Howe 2003)’ A problem that has been recognised, but only partially addressed, for many decades Affordability –Housing costs for older householders: 7% of income (owners); 21% public renters; 28% private renters (1999) –Lone person households paying average 49% of income in private sector (1999) –30% of private renters paid 30%+ ‘after CRA payment’ (AIHW 2004) Security, suitability, quality, choice –No strong evidence, but much anecdotal evidence of significant problems Relativity to older owner-occupiers –‘their housing circumstances set them apart from the majority of older Australians for whom home ownership provides security of tenure, low housing costs, a source of equity, and a foundation for ageing well’

4 The research project Research project designed to explicitly and directly address a policy question Research question: ‘What policy settings are required to ensure an adequate supply of affordable housing for lower-income older Australians in the context of population ageing?’ Funded by AHURI and report available on the AHURI web-site Team comprised a demographer (Martin Bell), ageing researcher (Cheryl Tilse), policy analysis (Andrew Jones) and property and finance (George Earl) An example of policy focused research – not only research for policy but also research about policy Strong support received from Commonwealth, SHAs and community and market sector during the conduct of the research Provides a comprehensive evidence base for policy – details the problem and proposes a way forward

5 The research design and methods A ‘demand and supply’ research design in four parts What is the likely demand for affordable rental housing over the next two decades (population projections)? What are the expressed and emerging housing needs, preferences and choices of lower-income older renters (focus groups with diversity of older renters)? What is the current and anticipated capacity of the social sector to supply affordable rental housing for older people (policy analysis based on documents and key informant interviews)? What is the current and anticipated capacity of the market sector to supply affordable rental housing for older people (documents and key informant interviews)? What are the implications for policy and research?

6 The findings: demography and demand The number of low income rental households & individuals will more than double from Method –Based on 2004 ABS household projections series B –Assumption that the proportion of people in each household type who are low income renters remains stable –Proportions based on 2001 census household sample file Findings re low income rental households –Number of persons aged 65+ will increase from 195,000 to 419,000 –Number of households will rise from 154,000 to 336,000 –Proportion will rise only slightly from 8.0% to 8.2% –Increase in number of low income renters will be 103% for 65-74, 114% for 75-84, and 194% for 85+

7 The findings: changing needs and preferences There are four major sub-groups of older renters and diversification of needs and preferences Method –13 focus groups (and some individual interviews) involving 130 older people in a diverse range of rental housing types –Representation of people in public, private, cooperative, assisted-living, Abbeyfield, retirement village, Indigenous, rural, high need –Detailed analysis of existing literature Findings –Common values: autonomy, affordability, security, sociability –Great diversity of perceived advantages and disadvantages in different types of rental housing –Main sub-groups: Long term tenants Those choosing to move to rental age-specific housing Those forced to move to rental housing (1/4 previous home owners) The marginally attached to housing

8 The findings: social sector supply The social sector does not have the capacity or clear intent to address this increasing demand Method –Detailed analysis of documents and data on current supply and stated intent –Key informant interviews in all jurisdictions (68 interviews) Findings –The expansion of affordable rental housing for older people is not an identifiable national policy priority of the CSHA –This issue has a low priority in the ageing strategies, and most of the social housing and affordable housing strategies of of the States and Territories –Older people are a major group of existing public housing tenants (28.4%) but the proportion of new allocations to older people is much lower (11.4%) –Older people face high competition for limited resources in a public housing sector focused on ‘high needs’ –The capacity of the community sector re older persons’ housing is unrealised

9 The findings: market sector supply The market sector has shown considerable interest in expanding supply but has experienced major difficulties Method –Key informant interviews with investors, developers and managers (26 interviews) as well as public sector informants –Detailed analysis of company documents and reports Findings –SHAs are involved in expanding market supply through disparate projects and initiatives rather than in the form of a concerted strategy –Major growth of private companies in providing assisted-living rental villages Sunnycove, Village Life, Oxford Crest Financial problems Problems with the housing model and management –Significant potential for private sector investment in affordable rental housing for older people

10 The research conclusions In order to meet the demand for low cost rental housing over the next two decades a new policy approach is required The number of low income rental households & individuals will more than double from There are four major sub-groups of older renters and diversification of needs and preferences The social sector does not have the capacity or clear intent to address this increasing demand The market sector has shown considerable interest in expanding supply but has experienced major difficulties

11 The policy implications The choice is between an expansion of social housing or a new governance approach A new governance approach would involve an integrated, multi- sector strategy, directed by the public sector, and drawing on the resources of the state, community and private sectors –Policy and service system definition – affordable housing for older people needs to be developed as a service system rather than a component of social housing policy [compare the aged care system] –Steering capacity – the capacity to plan and develop good quality, diverse supply through directing or influencing several sectors –Network enhancement – the development of effective networks involving the state, community and market sectors –Change management capacity – capacity to manage extensive changes over next two decades in population AND in public sector management

12 The research implications Research must be proactive in anticipating policy problems and putting issues on the agenda This research study provides an unambiguous foundation for policy development We need to find ways for effective engagement with the policy community around this issue AND ongoing research We need research on the governance of housing (collaboration, integration, inter-sector relations especially with market sector) We need research on specific groups of older renters – especially older renters in the ‘old’ private rental market We need to know more about the ‘new’ private rental providers We need to know more about the community sector and older person’s housing But is the priority need for more research or for more policy development?