© London Asia Capital plc 1 Global Energy Security November 2005 Simon Littlewood CEO
© London Asia Capital plc 2 About London Asia Asian focused merchant banking group: Private equity investment of own & third party funds Over 35 investments made since 2002 Focus on education, financial services, TMT, and Energy & Environment Corporate finance advisory services M&A; Fund raising; Capital market transactions Fund management Manage the £50 million UK listed London Asia Chinese Private Equity Fund Structured finance Listed on UK’s AIM Stock Market since 2002 Over 50% owned by UK institutional shareholders International network of offices and joint ventures: China (32 offices)LondonNew York Hong Kong GermanySingaporeMongolia MalaysiaCanadaVietnam
© London Asia Capital plc 3 Existing E&E Investments Management team track record of over 10 years in the E&E sector made first energy investment in China in 1996 Raised over €500 million for projects in Europe and North America Current Asian investments: China New Energy (UK PLUS listed) – ethanol equipment Asia Wind – wind technology & projects in Asia Asia Water (S’pore listed) – water supply & treatment; China Solar - solar thermal Devotion Ecothermal Technology (S’pore listed); Energy efficient heating equipment Green Coke & other clean coal/oil technology Asia Power (S’pore listed) – renewable power generation in China China Climate Exchange – leading Chinese CDM consulting business Coal mines & coal bed methane
© London Asia Capital plc 4 Energy Security - The Problems Rising demand Dwindling supplies of fossil fuels Environment sacrificed for energy security Limited alternative strategies Existing infrastructure can’t cope with demand Short term solutions delay the inevitable
© London Asia Capital plc 5 Rising Demand – to continue IEA estimates 53% increase in energy consumption by 2030 Demand growth 3.7% pa for non OECD countries Driven mainly by India and China – India % India’s Energy consumption up 208% from = 5.4% pa China up 130% - 4.3% pa India’s Production & consumption 11 th biggest energy producer (2.4% of world production) 6 th biggest consumer (3.3% of consumption)
© London Asia Capital plc 6 Supply Shortages Increasing reliance on a smaller number of source countries IEA estimates non OPEC crude oil production will peak by 2015 Rush to secure the last remaining supplies Economic, political & military conflict; Compromising long term stability and principles for short term solutions Rising costs biggest hit are developing countries without adequate natural resources – cut backs on education & health to fund it Source: Shell
© London Asia Capital plc 7 India’s Position Coal 90 billion tons reserves – 10% of world total 200 years worth at current consumption 3 rd largest coal producer in the world – 8.5% of world production 3 rd largest coal consumer – 9% of global consumption Responsible for over 50% of India’s energy 70% of electricity production Demand 50% greater than 10 years ago Oil: Proven reserves 5 billion barrels of oil – 4.5% of world total Potentially up to 11 billion barrels 25 th largest producer of oil – 1% of world output 6 th largest oil consumer – 2.9% of world consumption 30% of India’s energy from oil 60% of it imported Estimated consumption of 3 million bpd by % increase in consumption in last 10 years
© London Asia Capital plc 8 India’s Energy Position Gas: Reserves 0.5% of world total Consumption growing 4.8% pa Hydro 6 th largest producer in the world – 3.7% of world total Another 30,000 MW under construction India’s energy consumption per unit of GDP – 0.19kg oil equivalent per dollar World average 0.21
© London Asia Capital plc 9 India’s Position (cont’d) 6th biggest generator of electricity – 4% of world total 6 th biggest electricity consumer – 3.5% of world total Electricity consumption & generation up 64% in last decade Projected 8-10% pa increase till 2020 India’s Primary Energy Resources and energy use (2006)
© London Asia Capital plc 10 Environment Sacrificed Environmental cost accelerating Healthcare Agriculture Climate related damage Decreasing quality of supplies + increased use = more pollution IEA estimates 55% increase in CO2 emissions by 2030 China & India produce 21% of global CO2 emissions Expected to rise to 36% US 23% Rest of G7 16% India’s carbon dioxide emissions per capita 1 tonne World average 4 tonnes Developed nations up to 19,000 tonnes Public opinion Civil unrest
© London Asia Capital plc 11 Alternatives Expensive Coal, gas and oil relatively cheap & efficient Energy efficient and renewable technology relatively expensive government incentives and legislation required Those countries which can least afford more expensive forms of energy production are those showing the largest energy growth Production (and related energy use and pollution generation) is shifting to the lowest cost countries Increasing pressure from consuming countries to reduce production cost
© London Asia Capital plc 12 Infrastructure Needs Upgrading IEA estimates US$20 trillion investment required in energy supply and infrastructure from Infrastructure needs upgrading to reduce risk Oil reserves storage Gas pipelines Development of new resources in undeveloped countries Legacy systems expensive to replace
© London Asia Capital plc 13 Existing Solutions Reduce, reuse, recycle Use more Coal Adequate resources for several hundred years in India & China Dirty & difficult to enforce pollution control Massive damage to agriculture & water supply Clean coal technology unproven Nuclear Cost – current and future Supply of raw material Public concern Risk
© London Asia Capital plc 14 Existing Solutions Biofuels Planting opportunities in India India has 540m tonnes of crop & plantation residue 150m tonnes economic in current environment = 19,500MW 537MW under commission, 536MW under construction 1% of global road transport fuel currently On current trends, IEA projects 4% by 2030 IEA optimistic scenario is 7% by 2030 Currently needs subsidies in most countries Competes with food production Technology needs to be developed to take fibrous feedstock Carbon capture/sequestration
© London Asia Capital plc 15 Existing Solutions Wind: 4.4MW installed in India end 2005 Up 48% in 2005 Growth of MX pa planned - another 5MW planned by 2010 Tax breaks & speedy approval process Technology needs further development Efficiency Cost Low speed turbines Solar sunny days a year in India Large program already in place: 83MW installed PV 3 million m2 solar thermal systems – 15m litres per day hot water Manufacture in India & China – India a net exporter of modules Technology still inefficient and expensive Need a technology breakthrough to progress Silicon supply shortages
© London Asia Capital plc 16 What’s Required Long Term Encouragement of energy efficiency Education Cheaper Technology Flexibility on intellectual property Government investment in R&D Mass manufacturing Favourable legislation Long term incentives Target the consumer, not the producer Low energy consumer products eg LED’s, Light bulbs Quicker planning process True costing of existing fossil fuel resources Carbon credits International co-operation
© London Asia Capital plc 17 India-EU Co-Operation EU-India Summit in 2005 covered energy Created EU-India Energy Panel, with working groups on: Energy efficiency & renewables Coal & clean coal conversion Fusion energy India a huge market for E&E solutions Europe has leading E&E technology and operational know-how Joint ventures Licensing Outsourcing manufacturing
© London Asia Capital plc 18 India-China Co-operation January 2006 India-China Co-operation agreement on hydrocarbons Work together on various topics including: Sourcing supplies Refining R&D China has low cost manufacturing capability Outsource manufacturing China a large market for E&E goods
© London Asia Capital plc 19 Contact Details Simon Littlewood London Asia Capital plc