Factors Affecting Jeffry Ahlvin, Darren Doi Eric Luckwald, Charles Rabkin Micah Witt, Jong Woo, Calvin Yeung November 29, 2004

What are we doing? The Big-shot hollywood producers want to know what factors most affect gross revenue of their blockbuster films. We can help.

Dataset US movies grossing over $150 Million –Released Since 1990 Four Factors –Genre (Action/Suspense, Comedy, Drama, Sci- fi/Fantasy, Other… musicals & animated) –Release Season –MPAA Rating (G, PG, PG13, R… no XXX) –Production Budget Data source:

Technical – Revenue vs. Budget

Technical – Regression Effects of budget & genre variables –Drama appears most significant

Technical – Regression Similarly… Rating and Season regressions indicate: –PG –Release in the Winter Problem 1: Titanic is skewing the data Problem 2: Factors not independent

Technical – Alternate Approach Utilize contingency tables

Technical – Alternate Approach Observed tables for other Factors PG-13 Action released in summer is most probable to exceed $150M

Results How does U.S. Gross depend on Budget for selected factors –PG13 –Summer –Action Predicted $0.86 Revenue/$Budget

Conclusions Recommend a Summer Action movie with content limited to PG-13 –Inherently open to broadest audience No effective age limits School out Action movies have high repeat appeal Significant limitation of analysis –No failures included… big budgets with revenue below $150M Results are conditional on a good script

Future Analysis Who should star in the movie?