Decision Making H Edu 4790/6790

Dealing with problems Problem avoiders Problem solvers Problem seekers

Steps of problem solving Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating

Problem definition State the problem precisely Set objectives Assumptions Structural assumptions Personal assumptions The problem itself

Steps of problem solving Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating

Analyze the problem Get the facts Analyze the facts Some common mistakes Too broad or too narrow Symptoms rather than causes Wrong problem Escalating commitment

Steps of problem solving Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating

Identify Alternative Solutions Brainstorming Nominal Group Technique Computer-based decision support

Brainstorming All criticism is ruled out “Freewheeling” is welcomed Quantity is important Building on one another’s ideas is encouraged

Nominal Group Participants work alone and write possible solutions to a stated problem Ideas are read aloud without discussion All ideas are recorded Ideas are clarified Voting Steps 4 & 5 repeated as necessary

Steps of problem solving Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating

Decision criteria Environments of decision making Certainty Risk Uncertainty Decision matrix

N1N1 N2N2 N3N3 S1S1 R 11 R 12 R 13 S2S2 R 21 R 22 R 23 S3S3 R 31 R 32 R 33 S = strategy N = states of nature R = results

Decision matrix UPMI LF PovertyRetired Community Dentist ++/-+ Ortho +-- Dentist & Ortho +-+/-

Decision matrix $200k$250k$300k 2 R.N.s ($100k) $100k$150k$200k 3 R.N.s ($150k) $50k$100k$150k 4 R.N.s ($200k) 0$50k$100k

Steps of problem solving Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating

Selecting, Implementing, Evaluating Evaluate alternatives Rank alternatives Types of analysis Decide on best solution Implement Evaluate

How managers deal with problems System thinking Intuitive thinking Multidimensional thinking Strategic opportunism

Factors that influence… The problem The problem solver The situation External environment Internal environment

Quality The Ape Story Define quality CQI = continuous quality improvement

Approaches to CQI - Deming Tally defects Analyze and trace them to the source Search for a way to improve the process Make corrections Keep a record of what happens afterwards Use statistics

Approaches to CQI - Juran Quality trilogy Planning Control Improvement

Approaches to CQI - Crosby Cost of quality Price of non-conformance Price of conformance Do it right the first time The customer first, last, and always

Tools Benchmarking Cause and effect diagram FOCUS-PDCA

Reengineering Inside-out planning Outside-in planning Reengineering (text)

An Example Case…the Carbondale Clinic