2009 Winter in review: El Nino, US drought and global Hazards April 2010 University of California Santa Barbara Acknowledgements: most graphics from Climate Prediction Center (CPC/NCEP/NOAA)

O UTLINE  ENSO evolution and current conditions  Winter precipitation and US Drought conditions  Global Hazards during winter 2009

Summary El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures ( o C) Longitude Time Since the beginning of June 2009, SST anomalies have been at least +0.5°C across most of the equatorial Pacific. During December 2009, positive SST anomalies increased across much of the equatorial Pacific. From late December 2009 to mid- February 2010, positive SST anomalies decreased across portions of the central and east-central Pacific. Recently, positive SST anomalies have decreased over the central Pacific.

Niño Region SST Departures ( o C) Recent Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 1.0ºC Niño ºC Niño 3 0.7ºC Niño ºC

SST Departures ( o C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 120°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures ( o C) During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures ( o C) for the Last Four Weeks During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific. During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific.

Since mid-February 2010, the positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave Recently, the Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sub-Surface Temperature Departures ( o C) in the Equatorial Pacific Most recent pentad analysis Longitude Time

U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During the Last 30 and 90 Days 30-day (ending 27 Mar 2010) temperature departures (degree C) 90-day (ending 28 Mar 2010) % of average precipitation 90-day (ending 27 Mar 2010) temperature departures (degree C) Last 30 Days Last 90 Days 30-day (ending 28 Mar 2010) % of average precipitation

US Drought Conditions

Current US Drought Conditions

NCEP CPC Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks

17 Global Weather Hazards – December 2009 Devastating drought was the most costly weather disaster in the U.S in 2009, causing nearly $4 billion in crop losses

18 Two significant rainfall events on December 4 th and 9 th caused widespread flooding and induced mudslides in southern Brazil 26 people dead On the night of December 8 th, the Sao Paulo city received half of its total average December precipitation (7.5” = 19 cm). Along the southern border with Uruguay and Argentina, in the Rio Grande do Sul state, rivers swelled to 10 meters (33 feet) above normal levels and 18,000 people were forced from their homes. A state of emergency was declared in over 130 towns and cities in the area.

December Over two feet (61 cm) of snow accumulation in North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. heaviest snow event to ever affect Washington, D.C. in December; 16 inches (41 cm) of accumulation 6 th greatest snow storm in D.C. history inches (59 cm) of accumulation in Philadelphia; 2 nd highest snowfall ever for a single event.

20 Global Weather Hazards – January 2010 Floods and over 80 different mudslides on January 1 st and 2 nd in southeast Brazil killed at least 76 people in the Sao Paulo, Rio De Janeiro, and Minas Gerais states. Over 200 houses at Angra dos Reis were deemed uninhabitable by local authorities, leaving 125 homeless and leading to the evacuation of another 238. The direct losses were estimated to be up to 145 million U.S. dollars

21 Series of intense extratropical cyclones affected the west coast and southwest region of the United States January Rainfall amounts over 12 inches (30 cm) and snow accumulations over four feet (122 cm) Severe thunderstorms; seven tornadoes being reported in California The third and last storm of the series broke numerous records across the West, including all-time record low pressures over roughly 10–15 percent of the United States Record low pressures: LA (983.3 mb), San Diego (987.0 mb), Salt Lake City (979.9 mb), Las Vegas (983.0 mb), and Phoenix (983.0 mb)

22

23 Ventura Tornado Information At approximately 12:20pm on Thursday, January 21st, a small EF-0 tornado touched down on the east side of Ventura. The damage path was approximately 1.5 miles in length, and 200 feet wide at times. Damage consisted of: Large trees blown over or snapped above the ground Asphalt shingles blown off roofs Dented garage doors One car tipped on its side against a tree Damaged crop shelters One metal roof lifted off a small outbuilding

24 Global Weather Hazards – February February 'Snowmageddon' Snow storm dumped more than 16” Colesville Maryland—suburb of Washington D.C.—received the most snowfall, with 40 inches (102 cm) Preliminary all-time records reported: state record of 26.5 inches (65.3 cm) in Wilmington, Delaware Washington Dulles Airport received 32.4 inches (82.3 cm), its largest two-day snowfall total on record

25 State of the Climate Global Hazards National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center