The Pre-VOCA Model Assessment Matt Wyant Roberto Mechoso Rob Wood Chris Bretherton with help from participating modeling groups, Dave Leon (U Wyo), Rhea.

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Presentation transcript:

The Pre-VOCA Model Assessment Matt Wyant Roberto Mechoso Rob Wood Chris Bretherton with help from participating modeling groups, Dave Leon (U Wyo), Rhea George (UW)

Southeast Pacific Climate - A Modeling Challenge MODIS cloud droplet conc. World’s most persistent subtropical low cloud regime. Cloud-aerosol interaction SST, clouds poorly simulated by GCMs

GOAL: Assess the forecast skill and biases of global/ regional model simulations of SE Pacific boundary-layer clouds and aerosols on diurnal and longer timescales. WHAT? Daily hindcasts for October 2006 over the SE Pacific. WHY? Learn how to optimally use REx, satellite and cruise data for model assessment and improvement. WHO? 14 modeling groups using regional and global models, including climate models run in forecast mode. WHEN? Data submission is complete; analysis in progress, journal submission early

ModelLevelsResolution [km] (inner domain) NRL COAMPS42 81 (27) COLA RSM2850 IPRC Reg_CM (IRAM)28~25 LMDZ3850 PNNL (WRF-Chem)4445 (15) UCLA (WRF)3445 (15) U. Chile (WRF)4345 ECMWF oper. 3-12h forecast91~25 ECMWF 5-day forecast91~40 ECMWF coupled fcst ensemble62~125 GMAO GEOS-5 DAS72~56 JMA 24-30h forecast60~60 NCEP oper h forecast64~38 UKMO oper h forecast50~40 NCAR CAM3.5/626/30250 GFDL24250

PreVOCA observational data ISCCP FDRadiative fluxes at surface, TOA TMILWP, WVP AMSRLWP, WVP MODISCloud fraction, optical depth, droplet size, cloud-top height NOAA ESRL Stratus Cruises Temperature, moisture soundings, surface fluxes, drizzle properties, aerosols QuikSCATOcean surface winds NCEP ReanalysisVertical velocity CALIPSOCloud top height COSMICTemperature soundings CloudSatDrizzle properties

Analysis PreVOCA analysis focus: Cloud/PBL structure and their dynamical setting. Shown here:Monthly mean Also analyzed:Diurnal cycle, subsidence waves Soon:Synoptic variability

Oct m vector wind (m s -1 ) - models agree fairly well Global Regional

Omega at 850 hPa (Pa s -1 ) - also not too bad Global Regional

Low Cloud Fraction

Liquid Water Path (g m -2 )

October soundings at IMET BUOY location 20S 85W sounding comparisons Regional Global forecast Climate qvqv θ

NCEPUKMOEC-oper IPRCCOAMPSUChile WRF Obs pinv 20S Cloud liquid water [g kg -1 ]

Mean Boundary Layer Depth Along 20S

Conclusions from PreVOCA Much scatter in PBL/Sc properties, esp. among the regional models: an issue for aerosol-cloud interaction? UKMO and ECMWF models perform best overall, correctly capturing most geographic variations in PBL depth/structure and cloud cover. Sharpness of inversion challenges even the highest- resolution models. Cloud variability and aerosol feedbacks are cutting-edge challenges to the best global and regional models. VOCALS SE Pacific datasets are wonderful tools for assessing and improving cloud and aerosol simulations.

From PreVOCA to VOCA... VOCA: Similar protocol to preVOCA using REx observations from 15 Oct -15 Nov 2008 More focus on chemical transport, aerosol concentrations and r eff vs. in-situ and CALIPSO data. We will send out a detailed protocol early this year. All modeling groups are welcome (with or without chemical transport modeling capability).

Extra Slides

VOCALS The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study A multiyear study of boundary layer cloud, aerosol, and upper ocean heat/constituent transport WHOI stratus flux-reference buoy at 20S 85W (2000+) Annual instrumented cruises in austral spring (starting with EPIC 2001 stratocumulus cruise). Regional Experiment (REx) in Oct.-Nov. 2008, including 4 aircraft based in northern Chile, two ships, coastal site: PI: Rob Wood (UW). Satellite data analysis of cloud properties Atmosphere and ocean modeling (LES to global).

Data from REx for Model Assessment ~35 days of Ron Brown ship observations near 20S (cloud radar, scanning 5 cm radar, lidar, sondes, surface met/fluxes, aerosols, sulfur chemistry, oceanography) Numerous night/day flights sampling 20S along 70-85W (aerosols, chemistry, cloud radar, dropsondes). NSF C-130 NOAA Ronald H Brown UK BAe146

Great cloud radar, microphysics, aerosol data Courtesy Dave Leon RF03