Population Maps of Latin America Glenn Hyman, Andy Nelson, German Lema International Center for Tropical Agriculture Cali, Colombia

Outline Why we need population maps The Database Gridding methods Verification Relationships between population and other variables Future Research

Why we need population maps

Raster Population Surface Potential Agricultural Productivity Population summed by zones Note: Areas en black are cities. Zones in Purple are higher rural population densities. Zones in green are low rural population densities.

The Database

10,400 units most are municipios Municipio level Parroquia level CIAT Administrative Division Database

Population Density in Latin America and the Caribbean < >100 people/km 2 Source: CIAT’s Population Database

r = ( ln ( pf / pi ) ) / t where: r = rate ln= logaritmo natural pf = population at final time pi = population at initial time t = period of time Growth rates were calculated from ECLAC’s population database at the department level An exponential growth rate function was used Population was estimated to the year 2000 We used figures from the last 2 population censuses at department level to calculate population growth rates

Gridding Methods Equal distribution (total population / number of cells in unit) Pycnophylactic Accessibility Weight model

Roads and Rivers from DCW Caminos y Rios Pendientes Luces Nocturnas Nighttime Lights Slope from 1 km DEM

Continental Scale Accessibility Mapping Model based on travel time to populated places Model uses roads, rivers, populated places, slope, and land cover to estimate travel time

Population from Census Accessibility Model

Verification

MunicipioDistrito Ecuador Peru

Verification data from different scales and independently collected Model where municipal level data is verified from data aggregated to finer district level

PERU Variable N Mean Minimum Maximum CV Sum DAREA DPYCNO DACCESS DACCESS_ DWEIGHT ECUADOR Variable N Mean Minimum Maximum CV Sum DAREA DPYCNO DACCESS DACCESS_ DWEIGHT Modeled population counts compared to census data for Peru and Ecuador verification data sets: percentage differences

Ecuador BEST Frequency Percent area access access_ pycno weight Peru BEST Frequency Percent area access access_ pycno weight

Relationships between population and other variables

Distribution of Rural Population in Latin America and the Caribbean Central America, the Andes, and the Caribbean have the highest rural population densities >100 No Data People per km 2 Source: CEPAL

Rural Model Variable R 2 Cumulative R 2 URBANO AGUA PEN25_ Variable Parameter F Prob > F Estimate AGUA URBANO PEN25_

Urban Model Variable R 2 Cumulative R 2 URBANO LUC LUC AGUA Variable Parameter F Prob>F Estimate URBANO LUC LUC AGUA

Future Work Gridding using statistical results Further verification using data from Peru, Honduras and Ecuador Compare to other work (eg. ORNL 1 km database) A Rural population map? New Map with 2000 Census round focusing on Amazon basin, Central American hillsides, Latin American savanas.