Drought

What is Drought  Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate  Originates from precipitation deficiency over extended period of time, usually a season or more  Considered relative to some long-term average  Compare current situation to historical average, often a 30-year period of record.  Threshold (e.g., 75% of average precipitation over a specified time period) usually established somewhat arbitrarily

 Droughts are major natural disasters  Cause much loss of lives and can destroy economies

 Droughts cost money  Impact government’s ability to function and provide services

 Graphs show developing countries suffer most

 Note projected drought areas  Note areas that your group is responsible for.

Projected Temp & Precip Trends in Africa  Temperature projected to increase especially at about N&S latitude  Precipitation decrease in these areas IPCC

Asia

South America

Southern Africa

 As of 2002, poor harvests  14 million people in need of food  Caused by droughts and flood  Civil strife, HIV/Aids problems  Hard for countries to cope  Climate change will increase drought/floods

 Low rainfall in Malawi, Zimbabwe, Zambia  Crop failure up to 90%  Maize prices up 400%  More than 30% of people infected w/HIV/AIDS  Civil war in Angola  Land conflicts in Zimbabwe  International issues, economic policies also impact food production  IMF/WTO/World Bank forced policies on countries  E.g. Malawi warned it was spending too much on food reserves

Climate Change Impacts  Rainfall more episodic  Lead to more droughts  1/3 of national income in Africa from agriculture  70% of population are farmers  40% of all exports = agricultural products  In sub-Saharan Africa, poor spend up to 70% of income on food  up to 90% agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, is rain-fed, accounts for 70% of regional employment and 35% of gross national product.  Climate change will worsen food supplies  Temperatures may rise up to.5 o C per decade  Central southern Africa will feel greatest rise  Droughts will increase

Mitigation & Adaptation  Mitigation: actions that tackle the causes of climate  E.g.. reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  Adaptation: actions that minimize the consequences  Both are linked  How much adaptation depends on greenhouse gas emissions

Adaptation—A case study  NERICA—New type of rice  Cross of African/Asian rice  Early maturing, drought tolerant, pest resistant, thrives in saline soil  Planted in Guinea, Uganda  Reduced reliance on importing rice when droughts hit

Yemen  Agriculture is important resource  Accounts for 58% of employment  96% of children in rural areas work in agriculture  60% of women in agriculture  Depends on resources sensitive to climate change  Wheat and potato important  Wheat not too sensitive to climate change  Climate varies from hyper-arid to sub-humid

Yemen Water  Scarce  Annual decline in aquifers of 1-8 m  Water pumped is 138% of annual renewable level  Water reservoirs will dry up in 50 years  Limited water is main problem for crop production

Yemen Adaptation  Awareness of crop sensitivity to climate change  Improved irrigation techniques  Improved water storages