Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in million metric tons of carbon)

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in million metric tons of carbon)

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Global Carbon Cycle (in billions metric tons carbon)

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/ (in ppmv) Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations ppmv in ppmv in pre- industrial time

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Global Carbon Emissions: present & future (in millions metric tons of carbon equivalent)

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including Carbon dioxide GHGs are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect.

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 The Greenhouse effect A T M O S P H E R E S U N

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Without GHGs, Earth's surface would be on average about 33°C colder than at present.

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Rise in the concentration of four GHGs

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and other industrial activities since the industrial revolution have increased the GHGs in the atmosphere to such a level that the earth’s surface is heating up to temperatures that are very destructive to life on earth. Global Warming

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Compare the above with the fact that the global temperature has not varied by more than 1 or 2 o C during the past 100 centuries. The global temperature has risen by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century (from 1906 to 2005). Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Global warming has begun, and so has the Climate Change.

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Consequences…………

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Consequences………… Source: Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the Carteret Islands. Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops. The islands were declared uninhabitable by the government in 2005 and expected to be completely submerged by World’s first environmental refugees from Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea.

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 death of coral reefs fewer cubs for p olar bears spread of dengue and other diseases heavy rains & severe draughts fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes changed rainfall patterns warming and aridity loss of biodiversity Consequences…………

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Rate of increase of CO 2 concentration (in ppmv/year) 1.8 ppmv/year in 2011 ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 CO 2 concentration in the future (ppmv) global temperature may be up by 2 o C

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov Accelerated Climate Change -Mass extinctions -Ecosystems breakdowns -Large scale discontinuities At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO 2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO 2 will be reached in 2017, and it is probable that the global temperature would go up by 2 o C (compare it with the 0.01 o C per decade estimate by WWF).

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Some say, forget about the 2 o C. The limit is not 400 ppmv CO 2. It is 550 ppmv CO 2 (which is nearly twice the pre-industrial value), which we may reach not.

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 CO 2 concentration in the future (ppmv) We are lucky. Are we?

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): Computer models of future CO2 emissions and controls on atmospheric CO2 have been developed by CCSP. 75% 550 ppm These models indicate that projected annual global emissions during the next century would need to be reduced by more than 75% in order to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at about 550 ppm. require a transformation of the global energy system, including reductions in the demand for energy, and changes in the mix of energy technology and fuels According to the CCSP, stabilizing atmospheric CO2 would "require a transformation of the global energy system, including reductions in the demand for energy, and changes in the mix of energy technology and fuels."

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Discussion Point 5: Should we place a upper sealing limit on the global CO 2 emissions to ensure sustainable development?

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Sustainable Limit Calculations

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 1. Virgin material supply limit: To stabilize the atmospheric CO 2 concentration below approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about 7 to 8 x kg (= 7 to 8 giga tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996). Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov Allocation of virgin material: Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal share of carbon emissions. That is roughly 1 tonne (1000 kg) of C equivalents per person per year, which is roughly 3.8 tonne of CO 2 equivalents per person per year. Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Sources: USA Sri Lanka Sustainable limit

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Sources: USA Sri Lanka Sustainable limit Norway Singapore Japan Iceland

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI) HDI = LI 3 + EI 3 + GDPI 3 LI (Life Index) = Life Expectancy GDPI (GDP Index) = ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100) ln(40000) - ln(100) EI (Education Index) = 2 Adult Literacy School Enrollment

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Sources: Sustainable limit HDI > 0.8 Unsustainable amount of per capita CO 2 emissions are required to reach super high HDI (> 0.9) USA Sri Lanka

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Take 10 mins. Discussion Point 6: How to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit?

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 But, we replace our forests with cities, highways & golf courses. Emissions Reduction Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs). Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees.

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 The forest cover is already too small to help reducing global warming. How long does it take to grow a tree like this?

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Emissions Reduction Option 2: Change to non-CO 2 emitting energy sources What are they? Nuclear Hydro Renewables (Geothermal, Solar, Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in BTU)

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 There is no immediate financial benefits for a switch to renewable energy in the profit- oriented energy markets.

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Projection of World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) United States Energy Information Administration, 2011

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 More people More pollution Emissions Reduction Option 3: Reduce Population

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 If you are in USA, you will be lighting 18.5 bulbs, each with 200 W power If you are in China, you will be lighting 3 bulbs, each with 200 W power Electricity use in 2006

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 in 2005

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 in 2005

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 CO2 emissions per capita has stronger links with GDP per capita than with population.

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Emissions Reduction Option 4: Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Controversial since permanent storage of CO 2 underground is not guaranteed

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Controversial since the impacts on marine ecosystem (very fragile) are not known

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 AdvantageProblems Oil and Gas Reservoirs Well-characterized volume Known seal Potential fuel recovery to offset cost Smallest capacity (~25 gigatons carbon) Limited in number Requires infrastructure to transport CO2 Formations Containing Saline Water Large capacity (~250 to 900 gigatons of carbon) Wide distribution Poorly characterized Greatest geologic uncertainty Unknown seal effectiveness Unmineable Coal Beds Adjacent to many large power plants (CO2 source) Potential fuel (methane) recovery to offset cost Poorly characterized Difficult to define "unmineable" coal Potential coal resources may be rendered unusable

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov Environmental issues: Potential for mobilization of ground-water contaminants; leakage of CO2 and CO2-saturated saline water; induced seismicity Regulatory issues: Determination of rules affecting injection wells; multiple regulatory jurisdictions (State, Federal, local); post-injection ownership and liability

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): The CCSP models illustrate the widely held view that sequestration is necessary but insufficient to control atmospheric CO2. substantial changes in energy sources and use as well as carbon management Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 is likely to require substantial changes in energy sources and use as well as carbon management.

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Take 10 mins. Discussion Point 7: What could you do to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit as an engineer?

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Food for thought: What are the Engineering Challenges to sustainability? Global climate change Energy production and use Food production Resources depletion Toxics in the environment Making sustainable lifestyles attractive Base for your CP551 project

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 “Scientists study the world as it is, engineers create the world that never has been.” - Theodore von Karman

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 “Scientists study the world as it is, engineers create the world that never has been.” - Theodore von Karman “sustainable engineering is about taking the world back to where it had been, while making it more civilized than it was then.” - shanthini

Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 The supreme Greek God Zeus told Prometheus: “You may give men such gifts as are suitable, but you must not give them fire for that belongs to the Immortals.” – Roger Lancelyn Green Tales of the Greek Heroes Puffin Classics