3 Astrology …lots and lots and lots of math. 2/18/1996

3 Goals Non-scientific theories. Is astrology a science? Why should we care? Is science just another belief?

3 Theories So: a theory is a highly successful hypothesis. All hypotheses make predictions. All theories make predictions. All theories can be tested. Result: Any scientific theory is subject to change as our ability to make tests, or make observations of a test’s results, improves with time.

3 Concept Test Consider the following hypothesis: An all powerful being created the universe 12 days ago with all our memories and all physical evidence intact.

3 Limitations of Science Key to the scientific method is The Test. Q: What can and cannot be tested? Q: What is and is not reproducible? A: Magic, the Divine, matters of faith cannot be tested and are not reproducible. Result: 1.Science is the search for natural or material explanations to the Universe. 2.Science is limited to those questions of which natural or material explanations can be applied.

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3 Limitations of Science Can science disprove the existence of God? Can science disprove the existence of Divine Action? Science is limited to the search for natural explanations.

3 What can Science Say? Is there evidence for un-natural explanations? –The unknown versus the unknowable! –God of the Gaps. –Intelligent Design. Are we justified in assuming that natural or material explanations are sufficient to describe the world? Are we justified in assuming the Universe isn’t random.

3 Theories So: a theory is a highly successful hypothesis. All hypotheses make predictions. All theories make predictions. All theories can be tested. Result: Any scientific theory is subject to change as our ability to make tests, or make observations of a test’s results, improves with time.

3 Concept Test Which of the following DO NOT satisfy the requirements of a scientific theory? a.Objects of different mass fall to Earth with the same acceleration. b.In the case of a very high mass in very small volume, there is a distance from the object inside of which one must travel faster than the speed of light to escape. c.The better a species is adapted to its environment the more likely it is to pass on the ability to survive to its descendents. d.Outside our universe is another universe with which we have no contact. e.The making of leavened bread requires yeast.

3 Non-scientific Theories Make no predictions Un-testable Can’t be falsified

3 Non-scientific Theories Cholesterol too high?  Aliens are clogging your arteries with invisible probes. Spaghetti is bland?  You were meant to eat bland food. Cholesterol too high?  Gods must be angry. Spaghetti is bland?  At the instant of tasting, tongue is transported to alternate dimension where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens instantaneously.

3 Falsification A real Scientific Theory tells you what observations are necessary to falsify it. –Not so proponents of: Face on Mars Moon Hoax Astrologers

3 Non-scientific Theories Viking Orbiter (1976)Mars Global Surveyor (1998)

3 Concept Test Consider the following hypothesis: An all powerful being created the universe 12 days ago with all our memories and all physical evidence intact. This is not a scientific hypothesis because: a.Does not explain what is seen. b.Postulates a supreme being. c.Makes no predictions. d.Disagrees with currently accepted theories. e.None of the above.

3 Concept Test Consider the following theory. Why does it not satisfy the requirements of a scientific theory? “The chain of events needed for life to arise is too complicated to have happened by chance, a divine intelligence must therefore have caused life to arise (Intelligent Design).” a.It assumes the natural process by which life arose isn’t just unknown, but is unknowable. b.It makes no prediction which can be tested. c.It requires causes that are not material. d.All of the Above. e.None of the Above.

3 Recap Science is a way of making theories to explain the physical world. Scientific theories: –Explain what is already seen –Predict what can be seen in the future. Predictions can be tested. Scientific theories can be falsified. Reproducible and self-correcting.

3 Astrology The date, time, (and place) of birth affect: –Your personality –Your actions –Events that will affect your life Horoscopes appear in most papers. Millions of people read them daily.

3 Astrology Like other “-ologies”, is it a science? –Explain what is seen? –Make predictions? Does it work? What test would falsify astrology?

3 Astrology Tests Come up with a test of astrology. Using no more than: –People in this room. –Available newspapers (past or present). –Time available.

3 Does Astrology Work? Does it pass the test? Does it work better than chance? Does it matter? “One of the other prime uses of astrology is in connection with the basic psychology of children and recognizing in children, at an early age, a basis for later psychological difficulties. The horoscope is perhaps the best method to reveal these tendencies while the child is still in infancy. When parents know from the beginning where the seeds of difficulties lie in the child's life, early care and training might mitigate much later unhappiness.” - The Cosmic Palette: Astrology 101 by Haizen Paige

3 Science vs. Astrology Scientists are skeptical of astrology because: a.It takes power out of the hands of scientists. b.It can’t be tested. c.It has failed when tested. d.It proposes forces that are non-physical. e.It threatens our belief in a knowable universe. But no one believes astrology so who cares?

3 Astrology and the President (TIME, May 16, 1988) -- “The First Lady dabbled in astrology as far back as In 1981 [Joan] Quigley made Nancy [Reagan] a believer …. And from then on, no presidential public appearance was slated without the Friend's say-so. To this day, Nancy's Friend continues to influence the President's schedule. For the Reagan-Gorbachev Washington summit, she cast the charts of both men and determined that 2 p.m. on Dec. 8, 1987, was the most propitious moment for them to sign the intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty. At Nancy's behest, the entire summit was built around that hour. For the upcoming Moscow summit, Gorbachev's chart (he is a Pisces) has been recast alongside Reagan's (Aquarius).” “[Former White House Chief of Staff, Donald] Regan and others make a compelling case that in 1986 and 1987 astrological influence dramatically reduced the presidency's effectiveness, at least partly, by keeping Ronald Reagan under wraps for much of the time. Nancy's intrusions in the scheduling process, Regan said in an interview with TIME last week, ‘began to interfere with the normal conduct of the presidency.’” (TIME, May 16, 1988)

3 Homework #3 Due Wednesday 13-Sept: Read Sg3 The Harmony of Worlds from Cosmos. 1.On page 64 Carl says “Kepler stood on the cusp of history; the last scientific astrologer was the first astrophysicist.” What’s the difference between these two and what does it mean to make the transition from one to the other? 2.Bennett, Chapter 3 (B3), Problem 32 3.Last year Mike Brown at Caltech discovered an object orbiting the Sun in the outer-reaches of our solar system. Preliminary observations indicate it is larger than Pluto. According to Brown, the planet orbits (on average) 70 AU (astronomical units) away from the Sun. How many years does it take this new planet to make one complete orbit of the Sun? a.70 years b.140 years c.490 years d.590 years e.4900 years.