Climate Change in New York Findings of the UCS Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment and The Cornell Climate Impacts Initiative Art DeGaetano Professor, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University Director Northeast Regional Climate Center

The Climate of New York is Already Changing Annual temperatures across New York have warmed almost 2 º F since 1970 Winter temperatures have warmed by nearly 5° F since 1970 The date of the last spring frost has become 1 week earlier since 1950 There are about 2 more days >90°F since 1970

Northeast Winter Temp

Significant Change in Winter Climate! Latitude ( o N) Winter (DJF) Mean Temperature ( o F) Boston New York Philadelphia Washington, DC 4.8 o F o

The Precipitation Climatology is also Changing Average rainfall has increased by more than 3 inches since 1950 There is about one more 2 inch rainfall per year since 1950 Snow fall has declined by as much a 20 inches in some parts of the state since 1970 In Lake Effect areas, there has been a long term increase in snowfall

New York Extreme Precipitation Events (>2 inches in 48 hrs)

These Changes Affect Design Criteria for Flooding Central Park yr yr yr yr yr yr Ithaca

Lake Effect Snow

Adirondacks Snow Cover

What About Beyond 2007?

Anthropogenic Forcing

Clicker Question What are the major sources of anthropogenic methane a)Landfills b)Fossil fuel combustion c)Agriculture d)Plastic manufacturing

Emission Scenarios Source: IPCC 2001 HIGHER A1FI LOWER B1

Projecting Climate

From Global to Local Scale

Projections and Observations 2 o F warming since 1970 Higher: o F Lower: o F

Source: NECIA, 2007 (see:

Timing of Seasons By : Spring will be arriving earlier by 1-2 weeks (lower) or almost 3 weeks (higher) The growing season is projected to be extended by 4 weeks (lower) and up to 6 weeks (higher) Summer is expected to arrive earlier by weeks (lower) or 3 weeks (higher) and stay longer by 2 weeks (lower) or 3 weeks (higher)  Lilacs: 4 days earlier  Apples: 9 days earlier  Grapes: 6 days earlier

Increasing annual precipitation

Extreme Precipitation Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across the Northeast Under both emissions scenarios –rainfall is expected to become more intense. –periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent.

Anticipating Impacts Geographic scope: Nine Northeast states, Sectoral scope: coastal, marine, forests, agriculture, winter recreation, health, solutions. Analytic approach : Assess potential impacts of climate change through 2100 under lower and higher scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions

Sea-Level Rise These estimates do not include the potential for additional increases due to more rapid melting of major polar ice sheets. Higher: 8-33 inches Lower: 4-21 inches Associated Press

Clicker Question What causes more than 50% of this sea level rise? a)Melting of mountain glaciers b)Melting of Greenland c)Melting of Antarctica d)Thermal expansion of water

Credit: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.. NECIA, 2007 (see: NYC : Today’s 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years under the Higher-Emissions Scenario

More Coastal Erosion Wetland Inundation and Loss

Lake Ontario Levels

Impacts on Human Health Extreme Heat Air Quality Pollen Allergens

Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes: New York City Photo credit: Associated Press

Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: Increasing Risk of Poor Air Quality

Changes in Suitable Climate Conditions For Different Forest Types by Late-Century spruce/fir: Anastasiya Maksymenko; maple: Birthe Lunau; oak: Dave White; ash: Chad Davis; loblolly: Kentucky Division of Forestry. Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: Jerry and Marcy Monkman

USDA Impacts on Agriculture Dairy Crops Pests and Weeds

Percent Years Meeting 1000-hr Winter-Chill Requirement (dark orange- most years meet requirement)

Days Below -4 F (dark orange- potential spread of Kudzu range)

July Dairy Thermal Heat Index (THI > 72 (yellow-orange to red) reduces milk production)

The Changing Face of Winter Intraresearch, d.b.a. MapMart

Source: NECIA, 2007 (see:

Key Climate and Impacts Findings Changes consistent with global warming are already evident across New York Over next few decades, changes similar under both emissions scenarios By mid-century, most changes are greater under the higher scenario By late-century, under the higher scenario many changes almost twice those seen with lower emissions

Meeting the Climate Challenge Reducing Emissions Adapting to unavoidable climate change

Keys to Adaptation

Electric power Renewable energy Buildings Transportation Industry Forest/agricultural land management Methane recovery Reducing New York Emissions Harbec Plastics Yahoo!/REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine

Available for download at:

Questions?