"There are so many fish being caught it's crazy." (According to a veteran troller for king salmon out of California's Half Moon Bay) - Pacific Fishing September 2002 "Washington's coastal troll season was productive when the biggest run of the biggest kings seen in years just kept coming." - Pacific Fishing March 2003 "There's been a lot of good stuff (chinook salmon) coming out of Oregon off the coast...the Columbia River was a real good run this year - beautiful fish - the best run I've seen out of there in many, many years." - Alaska Fisherman's Journal July 2003

Peterson and Schwing GRL, 2003

Mantua et al. 1997

Positive PDO Negative PDO

Victoria’s Secret: On the Recent Shift in the State of the North Pacific Ocean Nick Bond, Jim Overland, Mick Spillane, Phyllis Stabeno, Muyin Wang Winter - The PDO takes a break Summer - The plot thickens GCM projections for the early 21 st century

Gargett 1997

Observed coastal ocean temperature changes in summer C on July 14 ~11C on July 20 Stonewall Banks Buoy SST 18 June - 2 August July 2005 NOAA CoastWatch image Buoy SST plolt courtesy of Pete Lawson

Salmon catches in June surveys: Catches of coho salmon in June 2005 were lower than June 1998 during the El Ni ñ o. True also for Chinook salmon

worst year on record for Farallon Island auklets (42 km west of San Francisco) Mean productivity = 0.70

Differences between and SST Clouds 700 mb OmegaPrecip. H2O

Warm SST off Coast Cool SST off Coast

SLP SST Omega H2OH2O

More Precipitable H2O Fewer Clouds

North Pacific SST Animations (and follow your nose)

E. Curchitser, Lamont-Doherty

G.A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) – Leading Mode of N.Pacific SSTA BCCRCGCM3-T63 CCSM3 CGCM3-T47 CSIROGISS-AOM GISS-EHGISS-ERINM IPSLMIROC-HiMIROC-Me MRIPCM1UK-HadCM3

Principal Components Black – Observed PDO

2 nd Leading Mode of SST Variability

Temperature anomaly o C Ice concentration

Hori and Ueda, GRL, 2006

Summary 1.The “classic” PDO mode is incomplete in characterizing North Pacific climate variability. 2.The wintertime North Pacific SST variability during the last decade is dominated by a shift in the 2nd leading mode in the late 1990s. 3.This switch in the 2nd mode may help explain the occurrence of increased productivity in the CCS along with continued productivity in the GOA. 4.The summertime PDO shifted from positive to negative in the late 1990s. 5.SST anomalies along the U.S. west coast may have tangible impacts on the weather inland.

GCM Projections of North Pacific Climate 1.Some modeling systems appear capable of mimicking the observed variability during the 20th century. 2.The Bering Sea shelf represents a particularly useful (and important) testbed for evaluating these models.