Financial Statement Modeling MGT 4850 Spring 2008 University of Lethbridge.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Chapter 3 Working with Financial Statements
Advertisements

Cash Flow Analysis Lindsay Dastrup. Overview Direct method Indirect method Cash flow patterns Cash flow ratios Free cash flow.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth.
DES Chapter 6 1 Projecting Consistent Financial Statements.
Valuation and Evaluation. Basic Valuation Assets have value by virtue of being expected to produce cash flows Cash flows to equity holders are “dividends”
Evaluating Commercial Loan Request
Chapter 14. Short-term Financial Planning Chapter Objectives Percent of sales method to forecast financing requirements Sustainable rate of growth Limitations.
Financial Statements Forecasting
Tire City Case Pro forma income statements and balance sheets for 1996 & /2 page – project the need for financing for the warehouse project determined.
© 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth Chapter Four.
Chapter McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth.
© 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth Chapter Four.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Financial Statement Analysis
Using Financial Statement Models for Valuation MGT 4850 Spring 2007 University of Lethbridge.
Lecture 7 The Value of Common Stocks Managerial Finance FINA 6335 Ronald F. Singer.
Using Financial Statement Models for Valuation MGT 4850 Spring 2008 University of Lethbridge.
Key Concepts and Skills
Drake DRAKE UNIVERSITY Fin 200 Firm Valuation A Discounted Cash Flow Approach.
The Value of Common Stocks Chapter 4. Topics Covered  How Common Stocks are Traded  How To Value Common Stock  Capitalization Rates  Stock Prices.
Pro Forma Financial Statements. Projected or future financial statements. Pro forma income statements, balance sheets, and the resulting cash flow statements.
Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth
Key Concepts and Skills
Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth
FIN 819: lecture 2'1 Review of the Valuation of Common Stocks How to apply the PV concept.
4-0 Financial Planning Model Ingredients 4.2 Sales Forecast – many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales (often estimated using a growth rate.
Ratio analysis CHAPTER 3 Analysis of Financial Statements.
CHAPTER 3 Working With Financial Statements. Key Concepts and Skills Know how to standardize financial statements for comparison purposes Know how to.
1 CHAPTER 12 Financial Planning and Forecasting Financial Statements.
4-1 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth Chapter 4 Copyright © 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Reporting and Analyzing Cash Flows Chapter 17. Purposes of the Statement of Cash Flows Designed to fulfill the following: – predict future cash flows.
VANDERBILT INVESTMENT BANKING VANDERBILT INVESTMENT BANKING Meeting 6: Financial Accounting.
1 Chapter 2 Financial Statement and Cash Flow Analysis.
©2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited Learning Objectives 1.Prepare and analyze the four basic financial statements. (LO1) 2.Examine the limitations of the.
FINANCE MAP By Gaylen K. Bunker. Objectives of Workshop Principles: Time lag between investment and return. Compounding versus Summing Value = Discounted.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth.
1 Topics in Chapter 16: Capital Structure Business risk & financial risk Impact of financial leverage on returns Analyzing alternative capital structures.
Chapter 2 Financial Ratio Analysis. 2-2 Example 2.1 Problem  Rylan Enterprises has 5 million shares outstanding.  The market price per share is $22.
Chapter 4 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
CHAPTER 4 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth.
Chapter 2 Introduction to Financial Statement Analysis.
Class Business Debate Proforma Assignment. Business Cycle – Peak – Trough Industry relationship to business cycles – Cyclical – Defensive Business Cycles.
Financial Planning & Forecasting Pro Forma Financial Statements.
Chapter McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth.
Sales forecast Assets required to support sales Required assets -Existing assets = Required investment Investment Module Total assets > Total liabilities.
1 CHAPTERS 15 & 25 Corporate Valuation and Merger Analysis.
Key Concepts and Skills
Questions What are the major categories of financial ratios?
© 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Long-Term Financial Planning and Corporate Growth Chapter Four Prepared by Anne Inglis, Ryerson.
Introduction to Financial Accounting Horngren | Sundem | Elliott | Philbrick 11e Chapter 5 Statement of Cash Flows.
DES Chapter 4 1 DES Chapter 4 Estimating the Value of ACME.
Financial Planning, Forecasting, and Cash Budgets 15 CHAPTER Financial Planning Process Long-Term Strategic Goals Short-Term Operating Plans Sales Forecast.
Chapter McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth.
Principles of Finance with Excel, 2 nd edition Instructor materials Chapter 7 Financial Planning Models and Valuation.
Estimating the Value of ACME 1. Steps in a valuation Estimate cost of capital (WACC) – Debt – Equity Project financial statements and FCF Calculate horizon.
Rivanna Investments: Intro to Equity Research. Rivanna Investments First step is to gather information Financial statement and reports (EDGAR)
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS.
Business Finance Michael Dimond.
Financial Statement Analysis
Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth
Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth
Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth
Chapter 4 The Value of Common Stocks Principles of Corporate Finance
Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth
Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth
Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth
Projecting Consistent Financial Statements
Lecture 4 The Value of Common Stocks
Projecting Consistent Financial Statements
Projecting Consistent Financial Statements
Presentation transcript:

Financial Statement Modeling MGT 4850 Spring 2008 University of Lethbridge

Topics Pro forma Financial Statement –Firm valuation and its securities –Credit analyses (how much financing will be needed) –What if scenarios Mathematical structure –Simultaneous linear equations predict both the balance sheets and the income statements

How Financial Statements Work Models are sales driven –Functional relationships and policy decisions

The “Plug” Balance sheet item that “closes” the model The firm sells no additional stock, doesnot raise or retire debt, therefore financing comes from the cash and marketable securities

Projecting Next Year Inc. St.

Projecting Next Year Bal. Sh.

Recalculating the statements Go to Tools/Options/Calculation click iteration

Extending the model to more years Copy and paste the columns

Free Cash Flows

Reconciling the Cash Balances Consolidated statement of cash flows explains the increase in the cash account in the balance sheet as a function of the cash flows from the firm’s operating, investing and financing activities

Cash and marketable securities

Using the FCF to Value the firm and its Equity

Enterprise Value of the Firm The value of the firm’s debt, convertible securities and equity or PV of the firm’s future anticipated cash flows. Example: WACC=20%, FCF projection for 5 years plus terminal value. Terminal Value – after 5 years the cash flows will grow at 10% –FCF 5 *(1+growth)/(WACC-growth)

Terminal Value Terminal Value=Year5 book value of debt + Equity (assumes book value correctly predicts market value) Terminal Value=(Enterprise market/book ratio)*(Year5 book value of debt + Equity) Terminal Value=P/E *Year5 profits +Year5 book value of debt Terminal Value=EBITDA ratio *Year5 anticipated EBITDA

Cash and Marketable Securities in the Valuation Add in initial (year 0) cash and mkt. securities (assumptions) –They are not needed to produce the FCF –They are “surpluses” that could be drawn down or paid out to the shareholders without affecting future performance Can be treated as negative debt

Half-Year Discounting Cash flows occur smoothly throughout the year

Sensitivity Analysis What is the effect of the sales growth rate on the equity value?

Sensitivity Analysis Effect on equity valuation of the sales growth and the WACC

Debt as a “Plug” Increased sales growth, current and fixed assets requirements, dividend payouts → needs of more financing (p. 73)

Proforma balance sheet Cash and marketable securities turning negative p.73

DEBT test Current assets + Net Fixed assets>Current Liabilities + Last year’s debt + Stock + accumulated retained earnings – we need to increase debt to finance the firm’s productive activities Current assets + Net Fixed assets<Current Liabilities + Last year’s debt + Stock + accumulated retained earnings – there is no need to increase debt (cash and marketable securities are positive)

No Negative Cash p.74

Incorporating a Target Debt/Equity Ratio

Project Finance Borrowing money to finance a project may entail: –No dividends should be paid out until the debt is paid off –No new equity issue –Pay back the debt over a specific period A new project set in year 0 Firm assets -2,200; current liab. =100; debt=1,000 and equity = 1,100 Debt will be paid in equal installments over 5 years

Debt Repayment Schedule p.77 Repayment reflected in debt balances

Constant Fixed Assets p.78

Credit Analysis p.79

Return on Equity Book Value of the firm at year 5 is: Profit/NI5+Accumulated Retained Earnings+Stock If we decrease the initial equity investment we can increase the return on equity (leverage effect)

ROE and Initial Equity Investment