World commodity prices 2004 - 2005 AIECE Spring Meeting Kiel, May 6 2004.

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Presentation transcript:

World commodity prices AIECE Spring Meeting Kiel, May

AIECE Commodity Report - May Commodity markets are thriving and prices are soaring…

AIECE Commodity Report - May

4

5 …as activity and trade recover

AIECE Commodity Report - May Latest market developments Surge in raw materials prices…  HWWA overall index up 72% between December 2001 (latest trough) and April 2004  Industrial commodities and foodstuffs have surged more than energy prices …due to the Chinese “heat wave”…  China, the world’s workshop, was in 2003 the world’s largest consumer of coal, absorbing 40% of total world production steel and nickel, absorbing 25% of total world production aluminium, absorbing 19% of total world production  as natural resources become scarcer or uncompetitive in China …highlighting capacity constraints worldwide  Lack of investment in basic industries: overinvestment in ICT to the expense of basic industries  Prices of raw materials were until recently quite low on an historical perspective, too low to boost investment

AIECE Commodity Report - May Where China matters Example of coal prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May Where China matters Example of nickel prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May Prices of raw industrial materials on a longer term perspective

AIECE Commodity Report - May AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Factors which could push raw material prices down  In Europe: strong euro  Seasonnal factors (agricultural commodities) Factors sustaining raw material prices  Strong growth expected in industrial demand in Asia, with China more and more decisive for prices  Supply deficit even on markets believed to be structurally in excess supply (steel for example)  Investment from pension funds away from bourses to commodity markets (speculation on the London Metal Exchange) The environment for European raw materials purchasers has deteriorated sensibly, despite a strong euro; no significant downturn is expected in prices before 2006.

AIECE Commodity Report - May AIECE Commodity Group forecasts

AIECE Commodity Report - May AIECE Commodity Group forecasts

AIECE Commodity Report - May AIECE Commodity Group forecasts

AIECE Commodity Report - May AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Aggregate prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Energy prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Non-ferrous metals prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Ferrous metals prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Agricultural prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Food and beverages prices

World commodity prices AIECE Spring Meeting Kiel, May