The Politics of Congressional Elections Gary C. Jacobson

Context of Congressional Elections Constitutional Framework Congressional Districts Election Laws Political Parties Social and Political

Gerrymandering Partisan Tempered by incumbent protection (another use of the gerrymander) and candidate focused voters Facilitated by new computer programs Districts with multiple incumbents Colorado and Texas Davis v. Bandemer – partisan gerrymander unconstitutional if sufficiently egregious. Iowa: a model for reform? Racial Thornburg v. Gingles – districts should not discriminate against minorities. California’s 6 th District in 1982 North Carolina’s 12 th Shaw v. Reno and Miller v. Johnson – limits placed on blatant racial redistricting Hunt v. Cromartie – race can be considered if primary motivation is partisan.

Incumbency Reelection Rates – generally higher in House (rarely under 90%) than in Senate (ranges from 55% to 97% in post-WWII elections) Sophomore Surge & Retirement Slump  Slurge Vanishing Marginals Some Sources of the Incumbency Advantage Institutional Characteristics of Congress (Mayhew) Voting Behavior Constituent Service Discouraging opposition through casework, mailings... Career in the District (Fenno) Expansionist  Protectionist Money Spending far more important for nonincumbents, especially challengers So, why are there challengers? Naiveté Easy road to nomination Demonstrate party presence Rewards in simply running

Money FECA Private Individuals (largest source) PACs Party Money Money from Colleagues Self-Financing

Voting Behavior Who votes? Educated, wealthier, older Role of Party ID (on decline?) Information - Often limited to name identification - Recall versus Recognition - Big advantage for incumbents Contacting Voters (personal, mail, mass media, indirect) - Cumulative effect of various methods - Incumbent advantage - Reason for importance of campaign spending Winning Challengers - Better known - Better financed

Elements of a Campaign Organization - Some have campaign staff perpetually in place - Buying one complete (general consulting firm or team of specialists) - Assemble your own - Volunteer based (bargain basement approach) Strategy Media (Free/Earned & Paid) TV, Radio, Newspapers, Billboards, The Internet… Personal Campaigning Message Defining the choice Going Negative GOTV or Depressing Turnout Non-Candidate Advertising “Voter Education” “Issue Advocacy”

Reform Options Problem? Reelection rates are exceptionally high. Problem? Legislators are disproportionately wealthy, well-educated, male and white. Problem? Voting rates are low. Problem? Legislators are strong partisans, most people are not.