Understanding Metropolitan Change: The Urban Turnaround, Boomburbs, and Growth Counties Robert Lang, Ph.D. Professor and Director Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech Alexandria, Virginia Census 2000 Conference UC Berkeley November 1, 2002

Key Trends 1990s were the best decade for big, traditional cities since the 1940s A new category of suburban super city, or “boomburb” is emerging Many metropolitan core counties are growing more diverse, while peripheral counties remain mostly white

36 Large Cities in the “Urban Turnaround” Analysis Akron, OHJersey City, NJPortland, OR Atlanta, GAKansas City, MOProvidence, RI Baltimore, MDLouisville, KYRichmond, VA Birmingham, ALMilwaukee, WIRochester, NY Boston, MAMinneapolis, MNSan Francisco, CA Buffalo, NYNew Orleans, LASeattle, WA Chicago, ILNew York, NYSt. Louis, MO Cincinnati, OHNewark, NJSt. Paul, MN Cleveland, OHNorfolk, VASyracuse, NY Dayton, OHOakland, CAToledo, OH Denver, COPhiladelphia, PAWashington, DC Detroit, MIPittsburgh, PAWorcester, MA

Criteria for Cities 200,000 or more population in 1950, which in 1950 came to 50 cities At least two decades of decline from 1950 to 2000, which resulted in 36 cities

Numbers of Older Industrial Cities Gaining and Losing Population by Decade, s1960s1970s1980s1990s Source:Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA (mi.vt.edu) Tabulations of decennial census data by Patrick A. Simmons and Robert E. Lang

Best and Worst Decades For Population Growth in Older Industrial Cities (Based on Numeric Population Change) Source:Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA (mi.vt.edu) Tabulations of decennial census data by Patrick A. Simmons and Robert E. Lang 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

The 53 Boomburbs Arizona: Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Scottsdale, Tempe California: Anaheim, Corona, Costa Mesa, Fontana, Fullerton, Irvine, Lancaster, Moreno Valley, Ontario, Orange, Oxnard, Rancho Cucamonga, Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Ana, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Chula Vista, Escondido, Oceanside, Daly City, Fremont, Santa Rosa, Sunnyvale Colorado: Aurora, Lakewood, Westminster Florida: Coral Springs, Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Clearwater Nevada: Henderson, North Las Vegas Texas: Arlington, Carrollton, Garland, Grand Prairie, Irving, Mesquite, Plano Other States: Naperville, IL; Salem, OR; West Valley City, UT; Chesapeake, VA; Bellevue, WA

Criteria for Boomburbs Double-digit growth for each decade since 1950 Population above 100,000 by 2000 Census Not the largest central city in the region Located in one of the 50 largest regions in the US, which runs from Richmond, VA to New York

What are Boomburbs? Urban in fact, but not in feel Lack a large downtown relative to their size (there is no skyline) Have “hybrid” problems: urban sprawl and increasing poverty Come in two major types: immigrant dominated and traditional suburban

Boomburbs that had the largest increase in population in the 1990s: Metro AreaIncrease Gilbert, AZ Henderson, NV North Las Vegas, NV Peoria, AZ Pembroke Pines, FL Chandler, AZ 276% 170% 142% 114% 110% 95% Phoenix Las Vegas Phoenix Miami Phoenix Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA (mi.vt.edu)

Boomburbs 300,000 or More Metro AreaYear startedStart pop.2000 pop. Mesa, AZ Phoenix ,790396,375 Santa Ana, CA Los Angeles ,433337,977 Arlington, TX Dallas , ,969 Anaheim, CA Los Angeles ,556328,014 Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA (mi.vt.edu)

Growth County Criteria Double-digit growth for each decade since 1950 Located in largest 50 metropolitan areas New Metropolis Counties added since 1971

Growth County Share of U.S. Population: 1950 and 2000

MEGA Counties

Edge Counties Placer, CAWill, ILButler, OH Santa Cruz, CAJohnson, KSCleveland, OK Solano, CAAnne Arundel, MDClackamas, OR Sonoma, CAHarford, MDMarion, OR Ventura, CAHoward, MDWashington, OR Arapahoe, COOttawa, MIBucks, PA Boulder, COAnoka, MNChester, PA Jefferson, CODakota, MNBrazoria, TX Lake, FLWashington, MNDenton, TX Pasco, FLSt. Charles, MOFort Bend, TX Seminole, FLDurham, NCGalveston, TX Clayton, GAMecklenburg, NCDavis, UT Cobb, GAWake, NCHenrico, VA DeKalb, GAHillsborough, NHPrince William, VA Gwinnett, GARockingham, NHKitsap, WA Kane, ILGloucester, NJPierce, WA Lake, ILOcean, NJSnohomish, WA McHenry, ILOrange, NYThurston, WA

New Metropolis Counties

mi.vt.edu Urban Turnaround (Census Note 01) Boomburbs (Census Note 05) Growth Counties (under Current Research) Coming Soon (Spring 2003): Bruce Katz and Robert Lang. Redefining Cities and Suburbs Robert Lang. Edgeless Cities: Exploring the Elusive Metropolis Both from the Brookings Institution Press