How do voters make decisions???

Campaigns in Voting Theories VotersRole of Campaigns IgnorantTo manipulate

Campaigns in Voting Theories VotersRole of Campaigns IgnorantTo manipulate Bounded rationality

Campaigns in Voting Theories VotersRole of Campaigns IgnorantTo manipulate Bounded rationalityTo provide simple information to help people use shortcuts

Campaigns in Voting Theories VotersRole of Campaigns IgnorantTo manipulate Bounded rationalityTo provide simple information to help people use shortcuts Highly socialized

Campaigns in Voting Theories VotersRole of Campaigns IgnorantTo manipulate Bounded rationalityTo provide simple information to help people use shortcuts Highly socializedMeaningless?

Funnel of Causality Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions Current policy preferences and perceptions of current conditions Retrospective evaluations of the president concerning results Impressions of the candidates’ personal qualities Prospective evaluations of the candidates and parties Vote choice

Sociological factors

Voting in 2008 by race

Percent of blacks who voted Democratic minus percent of whites who voted Democratic

Gender In 1992: –Male: 1% more D than R –Female:16% more D than R In 2004: –Male: 1% more D than R –Female:11% more D than R –Gender Gap in voting in 2008: 11%

Gender gap

Religion In 1992: –Committed mainline Protestant: 17% more R than D –Nominal mainline Protestant 10% more R –Committed evangelical Protestant 3% more R –Nominal evangelical Protestant 20% more D –Committed Catholic 31% more D –Nominal Catholic 28% more D –Jewish 64% more D –Non-religious 18% more D

Religious voting

Vote choice by degree of religious commitment (white protestants)

Party identification A socialized, psychological attachment to a political party An information processing shortcut An information screen A predictor of vote choice

Party ID as predictor of vote choice for president

Strong partisans More likely to vote, be informed, and participate

Did you read a newspaper about the 2004 presidential election?

Did you vote in the 2004 presidential election?

Strong partisans More likely to vote, be informed, and participate Why? Better information processing Got somebody to root for

So how should a campaign activate strong partisans?

What do we know about independents?

Independents There are fewer of them than partisans

Partisanship

Independents There are fewer of them than partisans Many who say they are “independent” actually lean Leaners are fairly reliable party voters Some other “independents” are clueless Only about 10% of voters are true political independents

Of the Independents…

Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Dems)

Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Reeps)

Independents There are fewer of them than partisans Many who say they are “independent” actually lean Leaners are fairly reliable party voters True attitudinal independents less likely to be informed, vote, participate Behavioral independents / split ticketers do determine election outcomes

Behavioral independents, Dems

Behavioral independents, Reps

Other factors affecting vote choice

Funnel of Causality Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions Current policy preferences and perceptions of current conditions Retrospective evaluations of the president concerning results Impressions of the candidates’ personal qualities Prospective evaluations of the candidates and parties Vote choice

Partisanship and approval of presidential job performance

Retrospective evaluations of George W. Bush and 2008 vote choice

Who among these voters should a campaign focus its energies on? Who should it ignore?