Production and Consumption on the Century Timescale: Can Alternative Energy Technologies Replace Fossil Fuels Fast enough?

A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000) Industrial Output: 40 Marine Fish Catch: 35 CO 2 Emissions: 17 Total Energy Use: 16 Coal Production: 7 World Population: 4 No More Fish by 2100 at this rate of Consumption

Waveforms of Growth

The Terrawatt Power Scale Currently we are a 15 TW Planet Currently we are a 15 TW Planet 40 years ago we were at 5 TW 40 years ago we were at 5 TW

The Earth Limited Scale Scaling from the last century leads to the absurd: 235 TW of required Power Well, what kind of facilities/infrastructure would need to be built to generate 235 TW of Power?

Option 1: Build 40,000 more of these worldwide:

Hey What about World Wide Wind? We would need to build 50 million of these 5 MW machines This requires 75 Billion Tons of Steel  whoops, we ain’t got that much Steel left

Option 3: Pave the Deserts We only need 30 million square kilometers spaced out continuously in each time zone. Note that the entire Sahara desert is 9 million square km.

Implications This Century can not scale in terms of material consumption the way that the last century did  BAU can’t be supported We are starting to run out of raw materials needed for basic infrastructure We are definitely running out of rare materials needed for some advanced technologies

Business As Usual Scenario Population stabilizes to billion by the year 2100 Population stabilizes to billion by the year 2100 Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years 40 TWyr is compromise between current 15 TWyr and scaled (ridiculous) 235 TWyr 40 TWyr is compromise between current 15 TWyr and scaled (ridiculous) 235 TWyr

Ultimately Recoverable Resource Conventional Oil/Gas Conventional Oil/Gas Unconventional Oil Unconventional Oil Coal Coal Methane Clathrates Methane Clathrates Oil Shale Oil Shale Uranium Ore Uranium Ore Geothermal Steam - conventional Geothermal Steam - conventional 1000 TWy (1/4 need) 1000 TWy (1/4 need) ,000 20,000 30,000 30,000 2,000 2,000 4,000 4,000

Other Possibilities Hot Dry Rock Hot Dry Rock Sunlight/OTEC Sunlight/OTEC Wind Energy Wind Energy Gulf Stream Gulf Stream Global Biomass Global Biomass 1,000,000 1,000,000 9,000,000 9,000, , , , ,000 10,000 10,000 In Principle, Incident Energy is Sufficient  but how to recover and distribute it in the most cost effective manner?

Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Land use per unit Material Use 20 KW power buoy 20 KW power buoy 5 MW Wind Turbine 5 MW Wind Turbine LNG closed cycle LNG closed cycle Wind Farm Wind Farm PV Farm PV Farm Stirling Farm Stirling Farm Pelamis Farm Pelamis Farm 850 Tons per MW 850 Tons per MW 100 Tons per MW 100 Tons per MW 1500 MW sq km 1500 MW sq km 600 MW sq km 600 MW sq km 50 MW sq km 50 MW sq km 40 MW sq km 40 MW sq km 30 MW sq km 30 MW sq km

The Current US Situation Electricity power is at.97 TW (2007) Approximately 450,000 MW (0.45 TW) is provided by Coal Annual Coal emissions for electricity generation are almost exactly equal to total annual emissions from gasoline powered vehicles National Goal  replace 450,000 MW of coal fired electricity

But replace with what Beware the nuclear comeback  would require building 450 new nuclear power plants (currently 109 exist) LNG  this is our current path About 95% of new generating capacity added over the last 10 years is NG fired electricity LNG path is fraught with political peril; Russia and Iran have more than 50% remaining supply

LNG Infrastructure

Rapid Escalation of Import Facilities

Demand and Supply

Large Scale Renewables CSP  40 MW per square km  100 x 100 km section of central Nevada  400,000 MW (about equal to current Coal)  but only for about 6-8 hrs per day CSP  40 MW per square km  100 x 100 km section of central Nevada  400,000 MW (about equal to current Coal)  but only for about 6-8 hrs per day Great Plains Wind Project  1 10 MW Turbine per 10 square km  450,000 MW (but at about 50% wind reliability) Great Plains Wind Project  1 10 MW Turbine per 10 square km  450,000 MW (but at about 50% wind reliability)

More Possibilities Off shore wind/wave energy devices  make hydrogen (electricity carrier) and fresh water Off shore wind/wave energy devices  make hydrogen (electricity carrier) and fresh water Aleutian Island corridor  about 200,000 MW available there Aleutian Island corridor  about 200,000 MW available there 1000 km Gulf Current Turbine corridor  1 TW available 1000 km Gulf Current Turbine corridor  1 TW available Regionally: Multi-element Tidal fence topped with Wind Turbines across the straits of Juan de Fuca  50,000 MW. Regionally: Multi-element Tidal fence topped with Wind Turbines across the straits of Juan de Fuca  50,000 MW.

Summary Scale similar to 1930’s BLM engineering of the West or 1960’s endeavor to reach the moon The scale of this challenge is large (~5 TWyr new electricity generation in the US ) and requires year implementation timescale Think seriously about using Hydrogen as a proxy for transmission of electricity (Aleutians; OTEC) No one technological solution exists  need Network of regionally based alternative energy facilities

Solutions Exist It takes commitment and recognition of the total scale of the problem As long as we remain in denial and treat the Earth as infinite, then we can not move towards sustainability Energy conservation is one of the best forms of sustainable energy.