CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Ionosphere-Thermosphere Modeling Tim Killeen, Stan Solomon, and the CISM Ionosphere-Thermosphere Team

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Ionosphere-Thermosphere Overview

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Perturbations in the Ionosphere-Thermosphere System Positive & Negative ionospheric storm effects (TIE-GCM simulation, R. Roble, B. Foster) Changes in neutral density following geomagnetic disturbances alters satellite orbits due to atmospheric drag, resulting in tracking anomalies

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Coupling E LFM Model Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Coupler TING Model J ll, n p,T p Conductivities:  p  h Electric potential:     P  J ll Particle precipitation: F e, E 0 One Way CouplingTwo Way Coupling

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Comparison of Coupled Models — Energy Flux & Ion Drift One Way CouplingTwo Way Coupling

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Comparison of Coupled Models — Conductivities One Way CouplingTwo Way Coupling

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Current Research: High-Resolution Polar Cap Model with Multiple Levels of Nested Grids Regular Grid (5°) Nested Grid (~1°) Electron Densities at F 2 Peak (pressure level 2.0)

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Ionosphere-Thermosphere Validation Matrix 1 Below ~130 km 2 O/N 2 during the day, electron densities at night, also coupling parameters. Useful composition data could not be obtained from POLAR and IMAGE ‡ In situ or mainly in situ measurements, DE 2 and AE were multi-instrumented missions † Only some of these variables were available on any particular rocket flight. Generally sporadic. 3 Derived quantities with assumptions

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March M-I Coupling Validation Matrix 1 AMIE uses measurements of B by ground-based magnetometers and of E and B from DMSP and NOAA satellites. The resulting conductivities and potential pattern are reconciled, so the errors in potential are not large. However, the original estimates of conductivies come from ISR measurements that were developed using a Bates profile to describe the neutral atmosphere to derive the collision frequency. A Bates profile is not an accurate description of the thermosphere, especially in regions of auroral precipitation. Low latitude conductivities should not be used at all (see validation document). 2 See 1 for the difficulties with ISR conductivities. 3 Derived quantities with assumptions. * Archived DE 2, UARS data † Imagers provide measures of brightnesses in the UV. E 0 and F can be derived from these brightnesses ‡ In situ

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Rationale A robust set of metrics are needed that will be available for the foreseeable future. The data used for these metrics should not be subject to uncorrectable instrument drift and should be measured in the same way all the time. These metrics should reflect those developed by the Space Weather Programs metrics panel as closely as possible. Plan Proposed metrics for the ionosphere: the maximum electron density at the F 2 peak; the height of the F 2 peak; and as a secondary product the maximum electron density at the E-region peak. Densities will come from ionosondes and height from incoherent scatter radars, although GPS measurements should also be considered when they become routine. Proposed metrics for the thermosphere: satellite drag and accelerometer densities; FPI red line temperatures; and O/N 2 from satellite imaging when it becomes regularly available. Metrics

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Research Plan Outline Year 1 Complete preliminary coupling of the TING model to the Dartmouth MHD model. (70%) Test magnetosphere/ionosphere model with observations with and AMIE analysis. (10%) Begin transition to nested-grid version of the TIE-GCM coupled with the MHD model. (50%) Participate in development of model coupling framework design and specifications. (90%) Year 2 Couple MHD model and Rice convection model with the TIE-GCM. Implement multi-processor version of coupled model, using coupling framework. Initiate observational validation of magnetosphere/ionosphere coupled model. Initiate development of graphical interfaces for output analysis. Year 3 Initiate development of algorithms to assimilate observational data into the TIE-GCM. Continue observational validation of magnetosphere/ionosphere coupled model. Continue development of graphical interfaces for output analysis. Support coupling of solar wind model to magnetospheric model to create CISM model. Year 4 Extend TIE-GCM altitude range to include the plasmasphere. Integrate new TIE-GCM with magnetosphere MHD model and Rice convection model. Support validation of CISM model with observations. Support installation of CISM model on NCAR computational facilities. Year 5 Transition to pre-operational model on special-purpose NCAR computational facility. Implement data assimilation system with CISM model. Conclude observational validation activities. Conclude graphical interface development activities.

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Meetings & Activities Magnetosphere-Ionosphere coupling meeting Monthly, Access Grid NCAR-wide general CISM meeting Monthly, HAO Ionosphere-Thermosphere model development meeting Bi-Weekly, HAO CISM executive committee Bi-Weekly, Telecon CISM general meetings May kickoff, September retreat, March advisory council Space Weather Summer School Lectures & Labs, BU

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March Issues and Challenges Auroral energy flux and conductivity feedback (including solar ionization) — parameterization of auroral acceleration Three-way coupling with the LFM and RCM — unified solution to potential fields? Plasmasphere - ionosphere interactions — incorporation of plasmasphere model into TIE-GCM Ion outflow Sub-grid-scale phenomena and model resolution Lower and middle atmosphere effects Validation & metrics Approach to data assimilation