ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 1 Groundrules, Bases, and Definitions to Scope “The Next Step” L. Waganer The Boeing Company 3-4 April 2007 UCSD Project Meeting

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 2 Timing of The Next Step Minimal Risk Approach Starting basis will be reference ITER/DIII-D physics and engineering design and machine performance results (Design = 6 y, Lic = 2 y, Constr = 8 y, approximate) assuming positive results Assume TNS and Demo design, licensing, and construction take approximately the same as ITER construction and operation for each phaseconstructionoperation Further, the economic and political climate must be favorable To start Demo construction by 2050 and operation before 2060, the TNS must start design by 2023, construction by 2031, and operation by 2039 ‘10‘20‘30‘40‘50‘60 Start Constr Start Power Core Constr H PlasmaD DT Plasma 400 sec Current Drive Q = 5: 500 MW Extended Operation ITER ConstructionConstruction Design L Construction Operation Design L Construction Operation Start TNS Design Start Demo Design TNSDemo ITER Operation 3 y typ

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 3 Timing of The Next Step Minimal Technical Risk - Aggressive Design, Construction Schedule Assume TNS and Demo design, licensing, and construction phases can be shortened by 25% (16 y to 12 y), but maintain same interval between machines This allows Demo to start construction by 2044 and operation before 2050; also TNS can start design by 2023, construction by 2029, and operation by 2035 (compared to 2060 in base case) This is really aggressive for design, licensing, and construction, especially in the US. ‘10‘20‘30‘40‘50‘60 Start Constr Start Power Core Constr H PlasmaD DT Plasma 400 sec Current Drive Q = 5: 500 MW Extended Operation ITER Start TNS Design Start Demo Design TNSDemo Design L Construction Operation Design L Construction Operation

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 4 Timing of The Next Step Higher Technical Risk Approach – Nominal Design, Construction Schedule ‘10‘20‘30‘40‘50‘60 Start Constr Start Power Core Constr H PlasmaD DT Plasma 400 sec Current Drive Q = 5: 500 MW Extended Operation ITER Design L Construction Operation Design L Construction Operation Start TNS Design Start Demo Design TNSDemo Assume TNS and Demo design, licensing, and construction phases are nominal Shorten the time between start of operation and start of next machine design to 1 year – higher technical risk solution This allows Demo to start construction by 2046 and operation before 2054; also TNS can start design by 2021, construction by 2029, and operation by 2037 (compared to 2060 in base case) This is really aggressive for design, licensing, and construction, especially in the US. 1 y typ

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 5 Discussion On Timing Options Nominal approach seems too long for Demo Minimal or no basis for shortening design, licensing or construction times Minimal overlap of operational time with design introduces a significant technical risk if the TNS and Demo design depends on prior results. IF TNS and Demo designs are significant advancements from prior designs AND there is confidence in the ITER or TNS yet-to-be-proven results, then the risk may be acceptable.

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 6 Determining the Technology, Physics, Industrial and Organizational Needs Current state: The most relevant tokamak experimental reactor is being built outside the US –Limited technology transfer back to US –Minimal or no infrastructure to develop a technology, physics, industrial, or organizational basis to develop, build or operate a large facility –DIII-D will probably not be operating in a suitable time frame to influence the TNS preliminary and final design and will not provide operating experience –The US experience hiatus to TNS is on the order of years since a large US fusion experiment has been built. Realization: Our study can initiate efforts directed toward certain technologies, but TNS will be a green- field approach with new people developing the design.

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 7 Assumptions, Groundrules, Definitions ITER: It is successful; US in for a 10% role; results will be shared; but technology basis will be generally specific to country interests Post-ITER: All development work will be country-based; limited partnerships may occur to foster mutual, high cost and high risk developments US Demo: –Will be full or nearly-full sized (1-1.5 GWe) electrical power plant to demonstrate economic, safe, and reliable power production –Funded by: a) US Gov, b) Consortium of utilities, or c) combination –Operated by: a)…., b)….., or c)…… The TNS: –Will be funded and operated by the US Gov or a limited partnership of a few governments –Role of ARIES-TNS will be(?) to identify needs to be satisfied by the operation of a TNS to reduce the performance, programmatic, and operational risks for Demo

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 8 Likely Demo Metrics Cost of Electricity = Safety –No evacuation plan required (no runaway plasma condition) –Minimal hazardous materials –Low tritium inventory –Minimal pressurized gases –etc Environmental Impact –Low level radioactive hazardous waste, high volume –Minimal conventional hazardous waste –Nominal site impact –Minimal impact on limited resources (Lithium, Beryllium) –No CO 2 releases –Minimal traffic impact (all fuel processing on site) Balance of Trade Benefits (reduced oil dependency) (Gross Electric x Effcy – Recir Power) x Avail (D + ID Capital Cost) x FCR + Fuel + O&M

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 9 Likely TNS Metrics Reduction of Technology risk (engineering, manufacturing, operational, applicability of design approach, software, and hardware to Demo) Reduction of Physics risk (beta, control, disruptions, applicability of physics basis to Demo ) Reduction of Industrial Risk (involvement and maturation of infrastructure, limited financial risk, likelihood of a significant role) Reduction of Organizational Risk (management of large multi-national organizations) Cost of Electricity projection (all factors considered) Safety Impact demonstration Environmental Impact demonstration Balance of Trade Benefits demonstration of validity Supports US Economic Trade Policies Supports US and World Environmental Initiatives

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 10 Backup Slides

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 11 Present ITER Construction Schedule Previous Slide

ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 April 2007 Page 12 Planned ITER Operational Schedule Previous Slide