1. Review Carothers’ critique of the transition paradigm with specific empirical challenges for 3 rd wave electoral democracies.

1. Any country moving away from dictatorial rule can be considered in transition toward democracy.  Many countries have adopted a few democratic features, yet show few signs of democratizing further.  Should be understood as having alternative directions different from democratic transition.

2. Democracy tends to unfold in a set sequence of stages.  In many cases not as transitologists would expect.  E.g. Taiwan, South Korea, Mexico – extremely gradual and government- controlled.

3. Belief in the crucial importance of elections.  Often elections don’t lead to much else in democratization.

 Basically free & fair elections for president but no checks & balances.  Not “consolidated” in terms of institutionalization, but may be stable & enduring.  E.g. Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, Russia.

4. Belief that structural conditions will not strongly affect the initiation or outcome of democratic transition.  May be true of initial transition, but socioeconomic “preconditions” very important for successful further democratization.

4. Belief that structural conditions will not strongly affect the initiation or outcome of democratic transition.  Cultural/ historical legacy: Central and Eastern Europe, former USSR. ▪ “Distance from Berlin” pattern shows salience of history with democracy and cultural integration with Europe.

4. Belief that structural conditions will not strongly affect the initiation or outcome of democratic transition.  Informal institutions: “unwritten rules, norms, and social conventions rooted in shared expectations and reinforced by social sanctions” (Collins).  E.g. Corruption, organized crime, clans, other patron-client networks.

 Formally democratic institutions established after fall of USSR.  Relations among clans really determine power and resource distributions.  Clans = large kinship-based networks.  Asset-stripping and “crowd out” democratic processes.  Prevent rule of law.

5. Assumption that democratic transitions are being created in functioning, stable states.  State-building has been a much bigger task than analysts and foreign donors imagined.