Session 2 : The Downturn & Irish Business Richard McMahon Central Statistics Office.

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Presentation transcript:

Session 2 : The Downturn & Irish Business Richard McMahon Central Statistics Office

Outline  Re-cap  Overview of business statistics  Structural & Thematic Business Statistics  Short-term business indicators  Construction indicators  Industrial Production  Retail Sales  Other services  International comparisons  Other short-term CSO indicators

Re-cap - The Downturn

Re-cap  GDP at constant market prices  2007 – €186.6bn  2008 – €180.0bn  €166.3bn  2010 – first 3 quarters €124.1bn (€165bn annualised approx)  Fall approx. 13% ‘07 to ‘10 (approx. +1% EU-27)  Approx. 21% drop on GNP  Reductions mainly up to Q3 2009

Re-cap  Session 1: Effect on people  Session 2: Effect on business  Session 3: Overall effect on economy  Session 4: Alternative view of effect on economy  Session 5: Accessing CSO data

Background to business statistics  Purpose  Provide information on structure and performance of enterprises  Measure trends in key economic characteristics  Meet EU Regulations  Input to compilation of other CSO statistics e.g. National Accounts, environmental accounts  Key Users  Irish and EU Policy makers  Economic analysts  Media  Research community (controlled access microdata files provided subject to strict criteria)  Key issues  Confidentiality  Response burden

Operation of enterprise based surveys

Structural & Thematic Business Statistics  Structural  Measures numbers of enterprises by economic sector, firm size, region  P&L and balance sheet variables  Productivity, competitiveness indicators  Frequency : Annual – 2010 results in mid  Thematic

Structure of Business Economy

Ownership Structure of Business Economy, 2008

Sectoral Contribution to GDP

Short-term Indicators  Timeliness  Monthly within 40 days  Quarterly within days  Indication of trend  Results are expressed as Indices to base 2005=100  Principal Indicators  Industry : Monthly Industrial Production Index  Construction : Quarterly Survey of Construction, Planning permissions (actual)  Services : Retail Sales Index, Monthly Services Index (Q onwards)

Construction Indicators  Planning Permissions (PP)  PPs granted by local authorities  Anticipate trends in construction activity  Quarterly Production in Construction Survey  Measures trends in the value and the volume of production in building and construction  Indicator of change in value added  Over 2,000 firms surveyed

Construction Indicators

Planning permissions

Construction output

Monthly Industrial Production  Purpose  Measure changes in value added at constant prices  Methodology  Collect physical quantities manufactured and then value at 2005 prices Or Collect value of good manufactured and deflate to 2005 prices  Index is weighted by Gross Value Added  Features  Volatile  Huge impact of multinationals on total results

Monthly Industrial Production Seasonally adjusted

Composition of Industrial sector Modern sector  Pharmaceutical, ICT, medical instruments, electrical equipment Traditional  Food & beverages, textiles, wood, paper, rubber, metal products, mining, energy etc..

Selected Modern industrial sectors Seasonally adjusted

Selected Traditional industrial sectors Seasonally adjusted

Retail Sales Index Purpose  Monthly activity in the retail sector – value and volume  Indicator for final domestic demand Survey  2,000 retailers (incl bars, motors and fuel) each month  Collect monthly turnover  Use Consumer Price sub-indices to deflate to 2005 prices

Retail Sales Index (incl motors, fuel and bars)

Contributors to Retail Sales Index Central Statistics Office, Ireland 25

Retail Sales Central Statistics Office, Ireland 26

Core Retail Sales Central Statistics Office, Ireland 27

Monthly Services Inquiry Gap in statistics on the services sector  Real output of services Monthly survey  Retail, bars, motors (existing)  Other services (new) New Monthly Indicators  Value Indices in 2011 Indicator of personal expenditure Indicator of value added  Volume indices in 2012

Monthly Services Inquiry Experimental

International Comparisons

Other indicators : Tourism

Other indicators : New Car Licensing

Wrap - up