Dealing with Uncertainty: Statewide Retention Conference, March 5, 2008 Presenters: Beckie Hermansen, Craig Mathie, Mat Barreiro How Snow College students “START SMART”

Exchange EXCHANGE Of student’s time, efforts, knowledge for education offered by the institution StudentInstitution  Explicit Contracts and Implicit Contracts  Little or no guarantee = uncertainty

Uncertainty Anticipatory Socialization Persistence and Graduation

Postsecondary Socialization Socialization process marked by high levels of uncertainty and increased risk of exit from the institution RegistrationGraduation Socialization for students not participation in an orientation Anticipatory Socialization (Orientation) RegistrationGraduation Socialization process marked by lower levels of uncertainty and lowered risk of pre- mature departure Socialization for students participating in an orientation

Persistence Study Model College Persistence First Semester GPA First Year GPA Graduation Rates Departure over time Transfer Rates Survival over time

Start Smart Orientation Began Fall 2000 Faculty Section Leaders 2 sophomore mentors Two full-days prior to fall semester ( activities, workshops, resources ) Three additional meetings ( September, October, November ) Two one-on-one meetings with Section Leader Text: Off to College Finding your Niche exercise and Freshman Student Survey Grading is Credit or Non-Credit Enrollment not required but strongly encouraged Only offered Fall semester

Start Smart—the Experience!!! Move in early!!! Welcome Assembly Section Meetings (2) Ice Breaker Games Library Tour/Activity Computer Lab/ Majors Meetings Life Skills Workshops ID Card Look for Jobs Find your classes Practical advice (“the ropes”) Cafeteria Card Bookstore Registration Cashiers/Pay Bill Advisement Parent’s Workshop(s) President’s BBQ Huge Evening Activity New Student Survey Move in early!!! Welcome Assembly Section Meetings (2) Ice Breaker Games Library Tour/Activity Computer Lab/ Majors Meetings Life Skills Workshops ID Card Look for Jobs Find your classes Practical advice (“the ropes”) Cafeteria Card Bookstore Registration Cashiers/Pay Bill Advisement Parent’s Workshop(s) President’s BBQ Huge Evening Activity New Student Survey Section Meeting : College Adjustment Roommates Dealing with Professors Dealing with Parents Homesickness College Events Basic Study Advice Question/Answer Section Meeting : College Adjustment Roommates Dealing with Professors Dealing with Parents Homesickness College Events Basic Study Advice Question/Answer Section Meeting : College Life Test Anxiety More Study Skills Academic Resources Personal Resources Maintaining Health Personal Management Question/Answer Section Meeting : College Life Test Anxiety More Study Skills Academic Resources Personal Resources Maintaining Health Personal Management Question/Answer Section Meeting (1) End of Term Advice Preparing for Finals “Finding you Niche” Post Student Survey Progress Reflection Question/Answer Section Meeting (1) End of Term Advice Preparing for Finals “Finding you Niche” Post Student Survey Progress Reflection Question/Answer Individual Meetings with Faculty Section Leader Often one of the section meetings is a dinner or similar event held in the faculty member’s home. Faculty are reimbursed up to $75 for food expenses. 2 DAYS SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER

Research Questions First Semester GPA First Year GPA Graduation RatesTransfer Rates Depart over Time Survival over Time Do Start Smart students experience higher first semester and first year cumulative GPAs than non-Start Smart students? Do Start Smart students have higher graduation rates? Do Start Smart students experience less attrition after the first full year of college than non-Start Smart students? Do Start Smart students have higher transfer rates?

Descriptive Statistics (N = 6,737) 6 Cohorts (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005) 3,764 Start Smart; 2,973 non-Start Smart 4,153 (62%) female; 2,584 (38%) male Average age = 19 White = 93.1% 88.8% Full-time, 11.2% Part-time 87.8% Resident, 12.2% Non-Resident Average High school GPA = 3.4 Average ACT score = (96% reported a score) Degree = 36.5% awarded, 63.5% not awarded

RQ1: Comparing 1 st semester GPA: Multiple Regression on First Semester Cumulative GPA : (r 2 ) =.391 Significant relationships: ACT score (t(6462) = , p =.000 Start Smart (t(6462) = , p =.000) Gender (t(6462) = , p =.000) High school GPA (t(6462) = 5.586, p =.000) This indicated a relationship between Start Smart enrollment and 1 st semester cumulative GPA; however, significant relationships were also found for ACT score, gender (female), and high school GPA. Start Smart indirectly influenced 1 st semester cumulative grades to be at least one grade higher than non-Start Smart students. Averages: T1 GPA = 2.84 High school GPA =3.4 ACT Score = 20.65

RQ1: Comparing 1 st semester GPA:

RQ1: Comparing 2 nd semester GPA: Multiple Regression on First Year Cumulative GPA, (r 2 ) =.337 Significant relationships: ACT Score (t(5157) = , p =.000) Gender (t(5157) = , p =.000) Start Smart (t(5157) = 7.165, p =.000) High school GPA t(5157) = 3.554, p =.000 Consistent with 1 st semester findings, a relationship was found between Start Smart and 2 nd semester cumulative GPA. Additional significant relationships were found for ACT score, gender (female), and high school GPA. Start Smart students generally had 2 nd semester cumulative GPAs approximately one grade higher than their non-Start Smart peers.

RQ1: Comparing 2 nd semester GPA: Averages: T2 GPA = 2.89 High school GPA =3.4 ACT Score = 20.65

RQ2: Comparing Graduation Rates Correlation on Graduation Rate and Group, r =.185, α =.01 Descriptive Comparison between START SMART and non START SMART Graduation AAASASB*APEAASCER*% Graduates Start Smart ,598/ 64% (tot ) Non-Start Smart / 35% (tot) Start Smart students graduated almost 2 to 1 (1.8:1.0) compared to non-Start Smart students by the 4 th semester.

RQ3: Comparing withdrawal over time Survival Analysis Dependent Variable = Time and Status -- for this cohort there were 12 time intervals or semesters, excluding summer terms -- status was either censored (no event) or uncensored (terminating event) Independent Variables = ~ Age ~ Gender ~ Ethnicity ~ High School GPA ~ ACT Score ~ Start Smart

RQ3: Predicted Survival and Hazard Functions for the Fall 200 Freshman Cohort (00 equals non-Start Smart or Orientation participants; 1.00 = Start Smart Orientation students). Mean Life statistic: Start Smart = 4.0 semesters/ non-SS = 3.9 semesters Comparing withdrawal over time

RQ3: Predicted Survival and Hazard Functions for the Fall 200 Freshman Cohort (00 equals non-Start Smart or Orientation participants; 1.00 = Start Smart Orientation students). Mean Life statistic: Start Smart = 3.4 semesters/ non-SS = 3.1 semesters Comparing withdrawal by 5 th semester

RQ4: Comparing Transfer Rates Pearson Correlation: r = -.079; α =.05 Non-Start Smart Transfer Rate = 116/556 or 21% Start Smart Transfer Rate = 96/587 or 16% It seemed that Start Smart students were less likely to transfer than their non-Start Smart peers.

Implications Survival analysis: –Incorporating time as a dependent variable (whether and when a terminating event occurs) Different elements affecting persistence: –Pre-college characteristics –Collegiate characteristics Predictive ability: –Logistic regression goes beyond correlation to prediction –CumGPA = Start Smart + ACT + HSGPA + Gender + Constant In-depth assessment of effectiveness –Fiscal support of Start Smart –Comprehensive program assessment for accreditation –Support to competing enrollments and retention

Recommendations Interactions between predictors and time: –Highlight key departure times –Determine transient or permanent effects –Investigate decision-making processes at departure (the m-factor) –Develop responsive programs or policies at key departure times –Repetitive studies of subsequent cohorts –Comparative studies with “program-change” cohorts Program Format: –New syllabus with GE Outcomes foundation –Start Smart working in tandem with Capstone –E-portfolios –Assessment of outcome achievement through pre and post-testing –More student success driven with a GE outcome base and enhanced faculty support (i.e. learning activities driven by GE outcomes). –Different text and meeting times (more substance) –Mandatory enrollment?

Questions?

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