BARACK OBAMA AND THE POLITICS OF HOPE (?)
RATIONALES FOR ALTERNATIVES U.S. loss of “soft power” Continuing frustration in Latin America Importance of Latin America to U.S. Change of U.S. administration as result of presidential election
WHAT DRIVES FOREIGN POLICY? Generosity Friendship Proximity Repayment of historical debt –Or Self-centered national interest.
CLASSICAL REALISM 1. The international system is anarchical. 2. Sovereign states are principal actors. 3. States are rational actors, pursuing national interests, and are in competition with one another. 4. Overriding goals are survival and security—best guaranteed by military power. 5. Constraints achieved by resistance of other powers, not by treaties or friendship.
“PROGRESSIVE” REALISM 1. International system not anarchical but structured, as through “regimes.” 2. Nonstate actors and international organizations play significant roles. 3. State preferences vary from time to time, place to place. 4. States are not inherently aggressive or competitive; preferences can change. 5. Cooperation can yield mutual gains for participating states.
FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES 1. Nature of power: “hard” vs. “soft.” 2. Sovereignty and internal vs. international domains. 3. War vs. peace. 4. Importance of democracy. 5. Value of international cooperation, institutions. 6. American power: extent vs. limits.
SELECTED ISSUE AREAS 1. Economic integration and FTAs. 2. Drug trafficking. 3. Immigration. 4. Organization of American States. 5. Pink Tide. 6. Cuba.
WOLA PROPOSAL: THREE PRINCIPLES 1. The United States should support economic development strategies oriented to both growth and equity in Latin America. 2. The United States should help strengthen the civilian institutions that provide citizen security in Latin America. 3. The United States should support the development and consolidation of democratic institutions and respect for human rights in Latin America.
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE? 1. Election of a president with personal commitment to progressive paradigm and a strong interest in Latin America. 2. Events within region that demand U.S. attention— e.g., spread of pink tide or launching of terrorist attack. 3. World developments that focus attention on Latin America—e.g., “clash of civilizations.” 4. Demographic and political changes within the United States.
And the outlook is…..?
THE OBAMA RECORD Exaggerated expectations Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Afghanistan) Hesitant beginnings (Trinidad & Tobago ≠ Cairo)
CURRENT ISSUES Honduras: questionable commitment to democracy Colombia: military bases Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo Points of tension: –Venezuela –Bolivia –“Pink tide” in general
USA and Latin America: Comparative and Historical Perspective _________Latin America as Priority___________ ______ Low _______ _______ High _____ Operational Mode for U.S. ____ Unilateral Ad hoc Systematic imposition intervention (Bush ) (Reagan ) ________________________ __________________ Intermittent, Consistent, Multilateral low-level high-level diplomacy engagement (Clinton ) (Kennedy ) ____________________________________________________________
Rank-Order Preferences for U.S. Policy ___ Partners___ __Targets___ U.S. Policy (Mexico, (Cuba, __Rivals___ ___Bystanders__ __Configuration__ _Bush II__ __Colombia)__ __Venezuela)__ __(Brazil?)__ ___(Others)____ Low priority Unilateral Low priority Multilateral High priority Unilateral High priority Multilateral Note: As presented here, ordinal rankings mean that 1 stands for the first-place (most preferable) choice, 2 for the second-place choice, 3 for the third-place choice, and 4 for the fourth-place (least preferable) choice. Question: Where to place Obama?