Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Forest Sector JOHN PEREZ-GARCIA 1, LINDA A. JOYCE 2, A.DAVID. MCGUIRE 3 AND XIANGMING XIAO 4 1 Associate Professor, Center for International Trade in Forest Products, University of Washington, Seattle, WA , USA. 2 Project Leader, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO, , USA. 3 Associate Professor, U. S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA. 4 Research Assistant Professor Complex Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA.

George Perkins Marsh Man and Nature Or, Physical Geography as Modified by Human Action Originally published in 1864 Man’s Impact on Climate

Nordhaus: To Slow or Not To Slow Greenhouse Gas Emissions

What Has Been Done with Global Forest Sector Binkley et al Joyce et al Sohngen and Mendelsohn. 1998

Process Modeling Logic CO2 Atmosphere Increase Future climate regimes Altered growth of forests Impact on forest inventories Changing economic timber supplies Changes in production, consumption, prices and trade

Process Modeling Logic CO2 Atmosphere Increase Future climate regimes Altered growth of forests Impact on forest inventories Changing economic timber supplies Changes in production, consumption, prices and trade EPPA/IGSM/GCMs TEM CGTM

Work with CGTM GCM and EPPA/IGSM TEM –NPP –Vegetative carbon Global in scope

NPP Study: 1997

Alternative Perspective: Annual Change versus Change from One Steady State to Another

NPP versus Vegetative Carbon

Global Average NPP vs. Vegetative Carbon Over Time

Harvests under NPP and Vegetative Carbon

What Do We Do Evaluate potential economic responses of the global forest sector to different scenarios of climate change produced from alternative levels of greenhouse gas emissions Economic baseline includes recent collapse of Asian economy and fall in production and consumption of wood products in Russia

Suite of Models Used in the Analysis EPPA: emissions production and policy analysis IGSM: integrated global system model TEM: terrestrial ecosystem model CGTM: economic trade model All equilibrium models –Climate equilibrium –Ecosystem equilibrium –Economic equilibrium

Climate Equilibrium Previously used 4 GCM’s –Did not consider atmospheric-ocean coupling –Did not consider atmospheric aerosols Doubling of CO 2 climate –Did not consider annual fluctuations Different treatment of radiative forcing associated with elevated CO 2

Ecosystem Equilibrium Vegetation is in equilibrium –Responses are based on time-dependant simulations of terrestrial biogeochemical models No successional dynamics No species migration dynamics No disturbance dynamics

Economic Equilibrium Partial equilibrium model Explicitly considers wood costs Explicitly considers trade in forest products Does not consider forest sector feedbacks to other economic sectors Does not consider carbon sequestration effects

IGSM Takes information from EPPA and creates transient climate change scenarios (Prinn et al., 1999). We use 3 of these scenarios RRR, HHL and LLH, where the reference set of parameters and assumptions generates the RRR scenario.

RRR Similar to the IS92a scenarios of IPPC

LLH Based on lower CO2 emissions from EPPA Faster diffusion of heat into the ocean Larger effects of cooling associated with atmospheric aerosol Largest heating effects associated with the radiative forcing of increasing CO2 Leads to a smaller temperature change relative to RRR

HHL Higher CO2 emissions from EPPA model Slower diffusion of heat into the ocean Smaller effects of cooling associated with atmospheric aerosols Smaller heating effects associated with radiative forcing of doubling CO2 Leads to larger changes in temperature relative to RRR

CGTM TEM-based changes in vegetative carbon are aggregated by timber types (softwood and hardwood). An index of proportional annual change in timber growing stock associated with changes in CO2 and climate for each grid cell in TEM is calculated.

CGTM Regions United States (see Map 2) Canada (see Map 3) Central America and Mexico (CAM) Northern South America (SAN) Brazil (BRA) Southern South America (SAS) Chile (CHI) Western Europe (EUW) Sweden (SWE) Finland (FIN) Eastern Europe (EUE) Japan (JPN) Korea (KOR) China (CHN) Taiwan-Hong Kong (THK) Former Soviet Union, West and East (SUW, SUE) Middle East (MDE) India (IND) Indochina (ICH) Malaysia West (MAW) Malaysia East (MAE) Indonesia (IDN) Papua New Guinea (PNG) Australia (AUS) Rest of Oceania (OCN) New Zealand (NWZ) East Africa (AFE) Africa West (AFW) Africa South (AFS) Africa North (AFN) Philippines (PHL)

Economic Variability Intensive economic margin or upward sloping supply curve –Constrain harvest to economic baseline for non- responsive regions Extensive economic margin –Relaxes constrain on harvest for non-responsive regions

General Results: More Production (More Growing Stock) Prices Quantity

General Results: Lower Prices (More Production) Prices Quantity

General Results: Greater Welfare Prices Quantity

However There is a lot of Regional Variability

Regional Variability

Which Leads to Regional Price Changes

And Regional Harvest Changes

As A Result Regional Welfare Changes

Some Future Directions