Ec 1661 / API 135 Section Climate Change Science, Economics and Policy Gabe Chan 1

Climate Science 2

Temperature Records 3 Variations in the Earth’s surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC, 2001)

Temperature Records 4 Annual anomalies of global land-surface air temperature (°C), 1850 to 2005, relative to the 1961 to 1990 mean. The smooth curves show decadal variations. (IPCC, 2007) Black: CRUTEM3, UK Met Office (Brohan et al.,2006) Blue: NOAA, National Climatic Data Center (Smith and Reynolds, 2005) Red: NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Hansen et al., 2001; red) Green: Lugina et al. (2005)

Radiative Forcing and the Greenhouse Effect 5 The mean annual radiation and heatbalance of the Earth. From Houghton et al., (1996: 58), which used data from Kiehl and Trenberth (1996). Figure from Withgott and Brennan (2007)

Radiative Forcing by Agent 6

Global Warming Potentials 7 What are the implications for mitigation policy? (IPCC, 2007)

Historical Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration 8 first humans out of Africa

Changes in GHGs 9

Carbon Emissions and Concentrations (IPCC, 2007)

Who Is Responsible? Relative contributions by developing and developed countries to a) cumulative CO 2 emissions, b) current annual CO 2 emissions, c) the growth in CO 2 emissions, and d) population (Raupach, et al., 2007)

Who Is Responsible? Relative contributions by developing and developed countries to a) cumulative CO 2 emissions, b) current annual CO 2 emissions, c) the growth in CO 2 emissions, and d) population (Raupach, et al., 2007)

Regional Distribution of GHG Emissions by Population and GDP 13

Climate Impacts 14

Sea Level Rise 15

Climate Impacts 16

17

Climate Policy 18

Timeline of Climate Policy Milestones 19 (Ranson)

The Kyoto Protocol Basics: Participating Annex I (B) countries pledged to reduce emissions to 5.2% below 1990 levels by Criticisms: “too little, too fast” ● country exclusions (U.S.), ● non-binding caps (China, India, etc.), ● no long-term incentives, ● no enforcement mechanism, ● ambitious short-term targets Strengths: ● Market-based mechanism (emission trading, CDM) ● Passed political “existence” test 20

Kyoto Emission Reduction Targets 21

Policy Instruments for GHG Control Voluntary agreements (e.g. USCAP) These already exist; environmental impact is close to zero Command-and-control regulation (e.g. energy efficiency standards, CAFE standards) Not cost-effective, requires extensive information, behavioral advantages? Carbon taxes Cost-effective, but politically challenging Cap-and-trade systems Also cost-effective, politically more feasible? Hybrid systems (essentially a cap-and-trade system with additional permits if the price crosses a lower or upper threshold) Has features of a tax and a cap-and-trade system 22

Tips for PS #4 Do research and cite your sources! (but keep it simple, you only have 3 pages) Some topics to address: 23 (marginal) benefitscommand and control (marginal) costsmarket based instruments discountinginnovation / technological change efficiencyuncertainty cost effectivenessexternalities distributional equityincentives, generally (all the time) (Jack)

Break for C-Learn 24

Backup 25

Clean Development Mechanism Annex I countries can buy an Emission Reduction Credit from projects in developing countries 26 (Jack)

Clean Development Mechanism 2 goals of CDM: sustainable development low-cost compliance Project must be approved by CDM executive board and verified by an auditor Credits can be traded like AAUs or emission allowances 27 (Jack)

28 (Jack)

29 (Jack)