THERE’S A RECTIFIER IN MY CLOSET: Vertical CO 2 Transport and Latitudinal Flux Partitioning Britton Stephens, National Center for Atmospheric Research.

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Presentation transcript:

THERE’S A RECTIFIER IN MY CLOSET: Vertical CO 2 Transport and Latitudinal Flux Partitioning Britton Stephens, National Center for Atmospheric Research TransCom Meeting, Purdue 2007 [illustrations from There’s a Nightmare in my Closet by Mercer Mayer]

TransCom3 Modelers: Kevin Robert Gurney, Rachel M. Law, Scott Denning, Peter J. Rayner, David Baker, Philippe Bousquet, Lori Bruhwiler, Yu-Han Chen, Philippe Ciais, Inez Y. Fung, Martin Heimann, Jasmin John, Takashi Maki, Shamil Maksyutov, Philippe Peylin, Michael Prather, Bernard C. Pak, Shoichi Taguchi Aircraft Data Providers: Pieter P. Tans, Colm Sweeney, Philippe Ciais, Michel Ramonet, Takakiyo Nakazawa, Shuji Aoki, Toshinobu Machida, Gen Inoue, Nikolay Vinnichenko, Jon Lloyd, Armin Jordan, Martin Heimann, Olga Shibistova, Ray L. Langenfelds, L. Paul Steele, Roger J. Francey Additional Modeling: Wouter Peters, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Bousquet, Lori Bruhwiler

[figure courtesy of Scott Denning] Seasonal vertical mixing

Annual mean accumulation near surface and depletion aloft [Denning et al., Nature, 1995] Observed

Transcom3 neutral biosphere flux response Latitude ppm

Gurney et al, Nature, 2002 TransCom3 model results show a large transfer of carbon from tropical to northern land regions. Level 1 (annual mean) Level 2 (seasonal) Gurney et al, GBC, 2004

Bottom-up estimates have generally failed to find large uptake in northern ecosystems and large net sources in the tropics

ModelModel Name Northern Total Flux (1  ) Tropical Total Flux (1  ) Northern Land Flux (1  ) Tropical Land Flux (1  ) 1CSU-4.4 (0.2)3.7 (0.6)-3.6 (0.3)3.3 (0.7) 2GCTM-3.4 (0.2)2.3 (0.7)-2.0 (0.3)2.7 (0.8) 3UCB-4.4 (0.3)3.7 (0.6)-3.1 (0.3)4.0 (0.7) 4UCI-2.6 (0.3)0.5 (0.7)-1.5 (0.3)-0.1 (0.8) 5JMA-1.4 (0.3)-0.5 (0.8)-0.9 (0.4)-0.5 (0.9) 6MATCH.CCM3-3.0 (0.2)2.2 (0.6)-2.1 (0.3)2.3 (0.7) 7MATCH.NCEP-4.0 (0.2)3.2 (0.5)-4.0 (0.3)3.4 (0.7) 8MATCH.MACCM2-3.7 (0.3)3.1 (0.8)-3.0 (0.3)2.5 (0.9) 9NIES-4.0 (0.3)2.2 (0.6)-3.5 (0.3)2.7 (0.8) ANIRE-4.5 (0.3)1.6 (0.7)-2.8 (0.3)1.2 (0.8) BTM2-1.6 (0.3)-1.4 (0.7)-0.5 (0.3)-1.0 (0.8) CTM3-2.4 (0.2)1.4 (0.6)-2.2 (0.3)1.0 (0.8) TransCom 3 Level 2 annual-mean model fluxes (PgCyr -1 ) StudyN. TotalT. TotalN. LandT. Land Jacobson et al., 2006 ('92-'96) Baker et al., 2006 ('91-'00) Gurney et al., 2004 ('92-'96) CarbonTracker, 2007 ('01-'05) Rödenbeck et al., 2003 ('92-'96) Rödenbeck et al., 2003 ('96-'99) Comparison to other studies

TransCom3 predicted rectifier explains most of the variability in estimated fluxes Impact on predicted fluxes ModelModel Name 1CSU 2GCTM 3UCB 4UCI 5JMA 6MATCH.CCM3 7MATCH.NCEP 8MATCH.MACCM2 9NIES ANIRE BTM2 CTM3

ppm pressure NSNSNSNS Transcom3 neutral biosphere flux response

Northern Hemisphere sites include Briggsdale, Colorado, USA (CAR); Estevan Point, British Columbia, Canada (ESP); Molokai Island, Hawaii, USA (HAA); Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA (HFM); Park Falls, Wisconsin, USA (LEF); Poker Flat, Alaska, USA (PFA); Orleans, France (ORL); Sendai/Fukuoka, Japan (SEN); Surgut, Russia (SUR); and Zotino, Russia (ZOT). Southern Hemisphere sites include Rarotonga, Cook Islands (RTA) and Bass Strait/Cape Grim, Australia (AIA). Airborne flask sampling locations Collaborating Institutions: USA: NOAA GMD, CSU, France: LSCE, Japan: Tohoku Univ., NIES, Nagoya Univ., Russia: CAO, SIF, England: Univ. of Leeds, Germany: MPIB, Australia: CSIRO MAR

Airborne flask sampling data

Altitude-time CO 2 contour plots for all sampling locations

Model-predicted NH Average CO 2 Contour Plots Observed NH Average CO 2 Contour Plot

Vertical CO 2 profiles for different seasonal intervals

Observed and predicted NH average profiles

3 models that most closely reproduce the observed annual-mean vertical CO 2 gradients (4, 5, and C): Northern Land = -1.5 ± 0.6 PgCyr -1 Tropical Land = +0.1 ± 0.8 PgCyr -1 All model average: Northern Land = -2.4 ± 1.1 PgCyr -1 Tropical Land = +1.8 ± 1.7 PgCyr -1 Estimated fluxes versus predicted 1 km – 4 km gradients Observed value ModelModel Name 1CSU 2GCTM 3UCB 4UCI 5JMA 6MATCH.CCM3 7MATCH.NCEP 8MATCH.MACCM2 9NIES ANIRE BTM2 CTM3

Interlaboratory calibration offsets and measurement errors Diurnal biases Interannual variations and long-term trends Flight-day weather bias Spatial and Temporal Representativeness Observational and modeling biases evaluated: All were found to be small or in the wrong direction to explain the observed annual-mean discrepancies [Schulz et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. 2004, 38, ] WLEF Diurnal Cycle Observations

Estimated fluxes versus predicted 1 km – 4 km gradients for different seasonal intervals Observed values ModelModel Name 1CSU 2GCTM 3UCB 4UCI 5JMA 6MATCH.CCM3 7MATCH.NCEP 8MATCH.MACCM2 9NIES ANIRE BTM2 CTM3

Should annual-mean or seasonal gradients be used to evaluate model fluxes? Annual-mean fluxes are of most interest because they are relevant to annual ecosystem budgeting, to policy makers, and to projections of future greenhouse gas levels. No model does well at all times of year, but do not want to reject all models. Errors in seasonal timing of fluxes make selection of seasonal criteria problematic. Seasonal (rectifier) effects are inherently cumulative, such that a model with large seasonal errors that offset will do better in annual-mean that one with small seasonal errors that compound.

HIPPO ’08-’11 (PIs: Harvard, NCAR, Scripps, and NOAA): A global and seasonal survey of CO 2, O 2, CH 4, CO, N 2 O, H 2, SF 6, COS, CFCs, HCFCs, O 3, H 2 O, and hydrocarbons HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations of Atmospheric Tracers Fossil fuel CO 2 gradients over the Pacific UCIUCIs JMAMATCH.CCM3 ppm pressure SNSNSN NS NS NS NS

Models with large tropical sources and large northern uptake are inconsistent with observed annual-mean vertical gradients. A global budget with less tropical-to-north carbon transfer is more consistent with bottom-up estimates and does not conflict with independent global 13 C and O 2 constraints. Simply adding airborne data into the inversions will not necessarily lead to more accurate flux estimates Models’ seasonal vertical mixing must be improved to produce flux estimates with high confidence There is value in leaving some data out of the inversions to look for systematic biases Conclusions: And of course, watch out for the next monster....

Representativeness

Northern Hemisphere average CO 2 contour plot from observations

Aircraft Flask Sampling Locations and Data Summary. Site NameLocationLabTime Period Mean Local Time (± 1  ) Briggsdale, Colorado, USA (CAR)40.9 N W 1740 mNOAA GMDNov Jun :43 (1:57) Estevan Point, British Columbia, Canada (ESP) N W 39 mNOAA GMDNov Jun :22 (2:50) Molokai Island, Hawaii, USA (HAA)21.23 N W 0 mNOAA GMDMay Jan :31 (0:56) Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA (HFM) N W 315 mNOAA GMDNov Jun :20 (1:59) Park Falls, Wisconsin, USA (LEF)45.93 N W 472 mNOAA GMDApr Jun :17 (2:58) Poker Flat, Alaska, USA (PFA)65.07 N W 210 mNOAA GMDJun May :25 (2:12) Rarotonga, Cook Islands (RTA)21.25 S W 3 mNOAA GMDApr – Dec :21 (0:31) Bass Strait / Cape Grim, Australia (AIA) S E 0 mCSIRO MARJun Sep :11 (2:02) Orleans, France (ORL)47.80 N 2.50 E 150 mLSCEApr Jun :51 (2:04) Sendai, Japan (SEN) N ETohoku Univ.Jan Mar. 2003NA Surgut, Russia (SUR)61.00 N E 44 mNIES, CAO, and TU Jul Jan. 2006~ 13:30 Zotino, Russia (ZOT)60.75 N E 191 mMPIB and CSIRO Jul Nov :10 (2:36) 1 Observations over 4 km are from flights between Sendai and Fukuoka, Japan.

annual averagesummerwinterspringfall modelbiasmodelbiasmodelbiasmodelbiasmodelbias B C0.14A-0.48A0.38C0.66A-0.10 A C B-0.36C C B A1.21B B Seasonal gradients ranked by absolute value

[Schulz et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. 2004, 38, ] Diurnal CO 2 profile measured over WLEF in 2001 by Michael Jensen using a powered parachute and bag sampling

Diurnal bias analysis

TM Predicted Annual-Mean 1 – 4 km Gradients. Site All Days Sample Days Sample Days + 5 Sample Days - 5 Sample - All S+5 - All S-5 - All CAR ESP HAA HFM LEF PFA RTA ORL ZOT N.H. Mean

Interannual trend analysis

Site 1 – 4 km CO Gradient (ppb) CO Gradient / 10 ppb/ppm CO Gradient / 20 ppb/ppm Fossil-fuel CO 2 Gradient (ppm) * CAR ESP HAA HFM LEF PFA RTA * Difference between 1 and 4 km averaged across all 12 T3L2 models. Annual-Mean Observed CO and Modeled Fossil-Fuel CO 2 Gradients.