The US Presidency and American Foreign Policy The Most Powerful Job on Earth

Presidential Powers Article 2, Section 1: –Executive Power in a Prez and VP for 4 years Article 2, Section 2: –Commander-in-Chief –Pardons –Make treaties –Nominate and appoint and fill vacancies

Presidential Powers Article 2, Section 3: –Information on State of the Union –Convene Special Congressional Sessions –Receive Foreign ambassadors Article 2, Section 4: –Removed by Impeachment for treason, bribery, high crimes and misdemeanors

Presidential Powers 20th Amendment: –Changed term to begin January 20 22nd Amendment: –2 terms 25th Amendment: –Presidential succession and disability

Presidential Expectations Chief of State Chief Executive Commander-in-Chief Chief Diplomat Chief Legislator Party Chief Voice of the people Protector of the Peace Manager of the Prosperity World leader ALL AT THE SAME TIME!!

Presidential Limitations Congress Courts Bureaucracy Federalism Capitalism Public Time Outside Forces

Evolution of the Presidency Traditional “Do Nothing” Presidency “Modern Presidency” –greater formal and informal powers for initiative –increased staff and advisory capacity Brownlow Commission Report (1937) EOP (1939) –agenda setter –most visible national actor

Presidential Leadership No-Win Presidency? Lead by Command or by Persuasion? The President’s Helpers The One, The Few, or The Many?

Advising the President The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

The Good: Brent Scowcroft (?) NSA to Ford and “41” General, USAF (ret.) PhD Columbia (pic courtesy

The Bad: John M. Poindexter (!) NSA to Reagan ’ Vice Admiral, USN (ret.) convicted in 1990 of conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and destruction of evidence in connection with the Iran-Contra affair Overturned on appeal (Don Rypka-AFP) Condi is a close second?

The Ugly: You pick…

The “First” McGeorge Bundy JFK and LBJ, Harvard’s Dean of the Faculty at Actually the first was Robert Cutler for Ike

The Current Stephen J. Hadley Rice’s Deputy CIA called him twice to waive off the Niger uranium story Lawyer, and worked at the Scowcroft Group NSC (Staff) in Ford administration (NATO and Europe) b. 1947, Toledo, OH BA, Cornell (’69) ; JD, Yale (’72) (Pic stolen from usinfo.state.gov)

It’s MY power! National Security Act 1947 –NSC –JCS –SecDef (et al.) –CIA Increasing reliance on NSC staff Centralization of policymaking in the White House

OK, not really all “in” the White House: Eisenhower (Old) Executive Office Building

Advising the President Short Run Advantages for the President Long Run Disadvantages for the Presidency? Principal-Agent Relationships

Advising the President Alexander L. George, Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1980)

Staffing Systems (Ideal Types) Formalistic Competitive Collegial

Formalistic Systems

More Formalism

Competitive System

Collegial Model

Decision-Making Tasks Survey Objectives Canvass Alternatives Search for Information Assimilate and Process New and Discrepant Information Evaluate Costs, Risks, Implications Develop Implementation, Monitoring, and Contingency Plans

Process-Outcomes Irving Janis: Groupthink

Process-Outcome Link? Herek, G. M., I. Janis and P. Huth, Decision Making during International Crisis: Is Quality of Process Related to Outcome? Journal of Conflict Resolution 31 (1987): Mark Shafer and Scott Crichlow“The Process-Outcome Connection in Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Quantitative Study Building on Groupthink,” International Studies Quarterly 46 (March 2002): Figure from John T. Rourke and Mark A. Boyer, International Politics on the World Stage (Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2004, 5/ed brief edition)

Getting it Right George: Multiple Advocacy Not sure I can tell you how to guarantee success, but I can tell you how to nearly guarantee failure. And scandal.