WA State Export Data & Trends Andrew J. Cassey School of Economic Sciences Washington State University March 2011 Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Andrew J. Cassey  Ph.D University of Minnesota Dissertation: State Export Behavior and Policy Advisors: Sam Kortum and Tom Holmes

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Andrew J. Cassey  Ph.D University of Minnesota Dissertation: State Export Behavior and Policy Advisors: Sam Kortum and Tom Holmes  Primary research interest in regional development through exportation Informational barriers to trade, costs to begin to export Export promotion policy

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Andrew J. Cassey  Ph.D University of Minnesota Dissertation: State Export Behavior and Policy Advisors: Sam Kortum and Tom Holmes  Primary research interest in regional development through exportation Informational barriers to trade, costs to begin to export Export promotion policy  Contact information extecon.wsu.edu/pages/Regional_Economics PO Box , Hulbert Hall 101, Pullman, WA 99164

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Outline of Webinar  State export data How state export data is collected How to interpret state export data WSU Extension publication (FS006E) “The Collection and Description of Washington State Export Data”  Trends in Washington exports Data and Graphs WSU Extension publication “Export Trends in Washington State, Vol. 3” in press.  More information & Partners

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Export Assistance Program  Create a culture of exporting Support and extend outreach efforts to agricultural exporters Conduct research to benefit new-to-export

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Export Assistance Program  Create a culture of exporting Support and extend outreach efforts to agricultural exporters Conduct research to benefit new-to-export  Joint with IMPACT Center, SBDC, WSDA A Primer on Exchange Rates & Exporting Interviews with current successful Agricultural exports Interviews with commodity associations Re-vamp of WA Ag Suppliers database Yunfei Zhao: Outreach Andrew Cassey: Research

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports State Export Data: Census Bureau & Customs  Nominal Data has not been adjusted for inflation Cannot compare across years without modification Best to use Producer Price Index for WA or Seattle- Bremerton-Tacoma (all-commodities, less fuel)

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports State Export Data: Census Bureau & Customs  Nominal Data has not been adjusted for inflation Cannot compare across years without modification Best to use Producer Price Index for WA or Seattle- Bremerton-Tacoma (all-commodities, less fuel)  Reported either by product (HS) or by industry (NAICS) Cannot get to low levels of disaggregation 6 of 10 digit HS, 3 or 4 of 6 digit NAICS

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports State Export Data: Census Bureau & Customs  Nominal Data has not been adjusted for inflation Cannot compare across years without modification Best to use Producer Price Index for WA or Seattle- Bremerton-Tacoma (all-commodities, less fuel)  Reported either by product (HS) or by industry (NAICS) Cannot get to low levels of disaggregation 6 of 10 digit HS, 3 or 4 of 6 digit NAICS  Services, low-value not counted Only records objects passing through customs Only records shipments of greater than $2500

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports State Export Data: Origin of Movement  Origin of Movement Sales value at port of exit (not value-added) Includes inland transportation cost Does NOT include trans costs beyond U.S. ports State where shipment begins international journey  State of consolidation of shipments  State of final processing

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports State Export Data: Origin of Movement  Origin of Movement Sales value at port of exit (not value-added) Includes inland transportation cost Does NOT include trans costs beyond U.S. ports State where shipment begins international journey  State of consolidation of shipments  State of final processing  Consolidation “problems” biggest for unprocessed mining & agricultural exports  Personal Preference: NAICS industries, not product codes  Not easy (possible) to derive employment or value-added due to exports

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports State Export Data: Data Collection  Shipper’s Export Declaration & AES Customs Census Bureau  WISER: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Export Trends in Washington  Inflation-adjusted time series data (Base year )  Specific industries  Emphasize exports in the context of overall sales

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Export Trends in Washington  Inflation-adjusted time series data (Base year )  Specific industries  Emphasize exports in the context of overall sales  Useful for: Assessing industry export prospects Gauging Washington economic health WA largest exporter in terms of export share of shipments

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Export Trends to World by Industry  Aerospace increase by 20%: rebound from strike  Overall increase by 2%  WA exports driven by Aerospace

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Export Trends to World by Industry  Decrease in other large export industries  Should not measure state success with total export data

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Exports as Percent of Shipments by Industry  Exports more important for WA than U.S.  Exports increasingly important for Nav. Instruments

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Number of Countries Importing by Industry  General increase in destinations  Decrease in destinations in 2009 Decrease in exports from less countries or less sales?

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Processed Ag Exports by Industry  All decrease in 2009 except oilseed (is this from WA?)  Trend winners: fruit & oilseed

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Exports as Percent of Shipments by Industry  WA industries match national average until 2007  Decrease in domestic shipments: diversification  Exports increasingly important for Dairy

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Number of Countries Importing Ag by Industry

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Summary  2009 exports up 2% over 2008  Increase due to aerospace and not overall  Most other export industries shrank in 2009  Grain and oilseed milling is hot export industry Followed by fruit & vegetable preserves

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Summary  2009 exports up 2% over 2008  Increase due to aerospace and not overall  Most other export industries shrank in 2009  Grain and oilseed milling is hot export industry Followed by fruit & vegetable preserves  Exports important for diversification of sales  Important to monitor % of sales and # of countries

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports More Information  Trade Stats Express: Limited free export data, by industry and country  Department of Commerce Int’l Business: General info, Quarterly Trade Bulletin, destination focus  Commerce Quarterly Trade Bulletin  Small Business Development Center: Extensive network  International Trade Alliance Spokane: New-to-export training sessions  Trade Development Alliance Seattle: Trade missions

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Appendix

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Percent Change in Exports by Industry

Andrew J. CasseyTrends in Washington State Exports Percent Change in Ag Exports by Industry