Paul S. Herrnson University of Connecticut State Legislative Leaders Foundation May 7, 2015

 Candidates must wage two campaigns  Incumbents have huge advantages  Campaign finance system has disintegrated  New possibilities, pressures, and pitfalls for donors  It’s not always a race between 2 candidates anymore

 The campaign for votes  The campaign for resources

Logistics Strategy Message Communications Motivate supporters, win persuadable voters, depress turnout for opposition 4

 Prior to the campaign season  District composition  High visibility & popularity  During the campaign season  Quality of the opposition  Head start/early lead  Expectations  Voting cues  “The cycle”  Most incumbents win, but many run scared... 5

 Fundraising Logistics – Begins early, ends after the election – State or nationwide Steps – Identify a financial constituency – Develop a pitch – Start local, build out – Match techniques to donors  Political consulting talent  Endorsements  Outside spending groups

Interest Groups Political action committees (PACs) Corporations, unions, trade associations, others Political parties Party politicians Individuals – Small $’s from district and elsewhere – Large $’s from the wealthy areas

Personal Solicitation Big $ Egos Access Fundraising Events Mid $ Social Direct Response: -Direct Mail -Telemarketing Low $ The Cause Source: Nancy Bocskor The Fundraising Pyramid

Experienced organization Tried and true fundraising list and pitch Money is drawn to power Expectations Dynamics – Start early (continuous f-r) – Raise lots $  scare off competition OR keep raising $ Challenger disadvantages – Opposite situation – “Catch 22” 9

Court rulings, regulatory decisions… From 3 Letters… PAC (political action committee) ….To Alphabet Soup PACs Super PACs (IE-only committees) 527 committees 501(c)s / social welfare organizations Corporations, trade associations, labor unions, others

Source: Center for Responsive Politics data.

Put Alaska First PAC$10,157,335 supports Begich (D-Ak.) Kentuckians for Strong Leadership $6,409,610 supports McConnell (R-Kty.) Committee to Elect an Independent Senate $3,891,371 supports Orman (I-Kans.) Source: Center for Responsive Politics data.

 Court rulings, regulatory decisions, 24-hour news cycle …  Individuals can do almost anything...may be asked to do everything  The almost can backfire … and everyone can learn about it

 Contribute to a candidate, party, traditional PAC, 527, 501(c), super PAC, single-candidate super PAC ◦ No aggregate limit  Make unlimited expenditures ◦ Same for corporations, unions, other groups  Create an organization or network of org’s ◦ Limited, disclosed contributions to regulated committees ◦ Unlimited, undisclosed contributions to unregulated committees  Do nothing? ◦ Depends on motives for contributing ◦ Balance: impact on election and policy v. public exposure

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 43,900 ads run this cycle (Jan 2013 – Aug 2014)  On course to spend $290 million in

 Outside spending can be substantial  In 2014…  Parties and interest groups outspent both candidates in 9 Senate and 19 House races  Difficult for candidates ◦ Plan their campaigns ◦ Disseminate their messages ◦ Avoid the money chase  Voters hear a cacophony of voices  Financed by wealthy individuals & groups

Questions? Thank you

Source: Paul S. Herrnson, Congressional Elections (Sage/CQ 2012).