Outline Regional Hurricane NMMB Progress

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Presentation transcript:

Outline Regional Hurricane NMMB Progress HNMMB Simulations and comparisons - HNMMB configuration - Real case simulations (NMMB vs HWRF vs NAM) Arthur 01L; GONZALO 08L - 2-km Idealized simulations (NMMB vs HWRF) Issues and plans Summary and future work

HNNMB progress/status Progress related to hurricane applications: - Available/done Two-way interactive nests in NMMB (Tom) Nest tracking algorithm to NMMB (Tom) ( 2012? hwrf version) Transition of HWRF initialization to NMMB (Qingfu, v2012) Implementation of HWRF physics to NMMB (Weiguo, v2014) EMC repository: https://svnemc.ncep.noaa.gov/projects/hnmmb -Ongoing New tracking and in-model diagnosis system 2015 HWRF physics upgrade Ocean coupling Data assimilation

NMMB-hurricane flowchart To be replaced by NMMB-DA/INIT To be replaced by spectral data Vortex Initial conditions GFS data Boundary Conditions namelist.nps NPS configure_file_d01 configure_file_d02 configure_file_d03 NMMB Post/Tracker Analysis/plots

NMMB Hurricane simulations 27-9-3 domains, feedback=0.5 Phys /domain HNMMB HWRF Turbulence/pbl: GFSHUR sfc_layer: GFDL land_surface: GFDLSLAB convection: SASHUR microphysics: FER shortwave: longwave: Ocean No Yes DA Domain: Dt=45/15/5s B: 305x305 (27km) 154x133(9km) 255x231(3km) E: 216x432(27km) 106x204(9km) 198x354(3km)

Results Arthur 01L Both hwrf and nmmb did good job 08L Hwrf gave weaker intensity, NMMB better, -- Track/intensity plots ? --- show nest move well along track ? --- structure ? Vertical cross-section ?

2-km Idealized HNMMB

Smagorinsky-type tunable 2-km idealized HNMMB Phys /domain HNMMB hwrfphys NAM-like phys HWRF Turbulence/pbl: GFSHUR MYJ sfc_layer: GFDL land_surface: GFDLSLAB NOAH convection: SASHUR BMJ microphysics: FER shortwave: longwave: Ocean Constant SST Initialization Idealized Vortex Horizontal Diffusion Smagorinsky-type tunable Domain: dt =30/10/3.333s B: 451x451(18km) 231x201(6km) 381x345(2km) E: 288x576(18km) 106x204(9km)?? 198x354(3km)??

NMMB with hwrf phys NMMB with nam phys NAM uses z0 ~ ustar^2/g …., TKE PBL, NAM-phys gives small size, strong TC

HWRF phys NAM phys

34kt, 50kt, and RMW Size from HNMMB At 84hr HWRF phys NAM phys

Issues: Some issues for NMMB-hurricane still need to be addressed, for example, nest motion (vortex not very organized …) Nests do not move with vortex Bad track

Track wrong when resolution is high, … Track wrong when resolution is high, …. (maybe some spots with low pressure …. ), For example, 2-km HNMMB, …..,

NMMB-hurricane in NEMS Plans: NMMB-hurricane in NEMS NMMB-hurricane Coupled with many other components http://cog-esgf.esrl.noaa.gov/projects/couplednems/architecture

Plan We have a HNMMB development plan: Target: 2015 continue development/tests 2016 tests/parallel real-time run 2017 real-time run

Lead/support Personnel Task Status Lead/support Personnel Note Start/Complete date Transition of HWRF physics suite to NMMB Done Weiguo Lin … Update to 2015 hwrf version Need tests Update by June, 2015 HWRF nest motion algorithm to NMMB Shortly Sam With some in-model diagnostic fields June/May to Sep, 2015 HWRF vortex initialization to NMMB almostDone Qingfu Lin… April to June 2015 Ocean POM/HYCOM to NMMB Bin Dmitry Hyun-Sook Regional Hycom POM: April to Oct 2015 HYCOM: planned Ocean coupling Zhan progress in nems’s NUOPC is slow. May need a hwrf-like coupler for use in a year April to Sep 2015 HWRF data assimilation Planned Mingjing, Jason Bin, Banglin GSI-EnKF ? Interface/data change Post processing Graphics Lin, Keqin Sam Weiguo .. now OK to use ncep-post, Sep to Oct, 2015 Script Sam, Zhan Mingjing ,Keqin HWRF-like Python script Sep to Nov, 2015

Code management All source codes, scripts, utilities and libraries, etc. should be saved at EMC SVN repository (https://svnemc.ncep.noaa.gov/projects/hnmmb). Development will be conducted in “hnmmb/branches”. We already have a project in EMC SVN site. https://svnemc.ncep.noaa.gov/projects/hnmmb branches/ tags/ trunk/

Code management Tentative structure of hnmmb/trunk: sorc/ EMCGSI/ vortex_init/ NMMB/ NPS/ nmmb-coupler/ pomtc/ hycom/ gfdl-vortextracker/ post/ util/ lib/ ush/ scripts/ graphics/ regression_tests/

Summary 1 2 Future work: improve nest motion algorithm, other components (e.g., DA + init) from HWRF system, …, work with other components under nems

Backup slides

HWRF physics available in NMMB Following physics schemes used in operational HWRF have been added to NMMB: GFSPBL scheme GFDL surface layer plus GFDL land surface scheme SAS scheme MESO-SAS scheme Add empirical z0 for hurricane to MYJ surface scheme NMMB has “fer”, “fer_high” micophysics schemes, and “gfdl”, “rrtmg” for radiation; those are very similar to HWRF’s.