Regional Air Quality Modeling Progress at NOAA/NWS/NCEP

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Presentation transcript:

Regional Air Quality Modeling Progress at NOAA/NWS/NCEP Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Jianping Huang, Ho-Chun Huang, Perry Shafran, Eric Rogers, Geoff DiMego, Ivanka Stajner June 10, 2015

NAM V3.1 Model Changes August 2014 Replace legacy GFDL radiation with RRTM Modified Gravity Wave Drag/Mountain Blocking More responsive to subgrid-scale terrain variability Target : Improve synoptic performance without adversely impacting 10-m wind forecasts New version of Betts-Miller-Janjic convection Moister convective profiles, convection triggers less Target : Improve QPF bias from 12-km parent, esp. in warm season Ferrier-Aligo microphysics Modified treatment of snow cover/depth Use forecast rime factor in land-surface physics Target : Reduce snow depth in marginal winter conditions w/complex precipitation type Reduce roughness length for 5 vegetation types Target : Improved 10-m wind in eastern CONUS Radiative transfer model with radiation fluxes at each model layer In Global, connected to an aerosol model Advect 5 cloud parameters snow/rain/graupel/ice/vapor NAM 12 km parent, nests and 1.3 km fire weather domains

CMAQ V4.6.4 CB05/AERO-4 V4.6.2 : April 28, 2014 Inclusion of latest EPA Carbon Bond 5 (CB05) chemical mechanism. Inclusion of AERO-4 aerosol chemistry. Updated anthropogenic emissions with 2014 Dept. Energy projections. V4.6.3: June 13, 2014 Modulate fugitive dust emission: suppress over ice/snow. Incorporate NESIDS HMS wild fire smoke. CONUS Incorporate real-time surface dust emissions (wind dependent). CONUS NTR, organic nitrate photolyzed and removed quicker. Layer specific time step was added to speed up code. V4.6.3v2: June 27, 2014 Correction to overestimates of dust emissions repartition percent going to PM2.5, mix beyond first level V4.6.4: July 16, 2014 With NAM Parallel Turned off gas emissions from fires. Ozone predictions will not be impacted by inclusion of smoke emissions. OPERATIONAL: January 29, 2015

CMAQ V4.6.5 CB05/AERO-4 Evaluations V4.6.5 : May 1, 2015 All emissions based on EPA 2011 Inventories (NOAA/ARL) Updated anthropogenic emissions with 2015 Dept. Energy projections Increased vertical levels from 22 to 35 (NOAA/ARL) Using operational NEMS Global Aerosol Capability (NGAC) for dust lateral boundary conditions (J. Wang) Testing PM2.5 ESRL bias correction (J. Huang) Update BlueSky smoke emission system (H-C Huang) Evaluations Ozone: case studies and FVS statistics July 7, 2014: Southern California June 12, 2015: North East U.S. PM: NGAC boundary impact cases May 10, 2015: Dust June 10, 2015: Smoke Bias Correction: FVS statistics Potential Impact of higher resolution meteorology

1 hour average Ozone Predictions July 08 , 2014 Case EXP Experimental : V4.6.3 Ozone Daily max vs obs Operational

Met BIAS NAM, NAM Nest, RAP South West Coast (July 2014) 2 m Temperature 2 m Dew point T 10 m wind Daily PBL Height (WEST U.S.) Warm, Dry bias with lower PBL than observed Conus Nest improved DPT and Winds

NAM Parent, Nest, DNG vs URMA Temperatures July 8, 2014 21 UTC (33 H forecast) 2 m Temperature Dew Point Temperature URMA 2.5 km Unrestricted Mesoscale Analysis Brings in mesonets, 12 km NAM does not see the mountain blocking so strong flow will serve to dilute the forecast NAM 12 km Temperatures cooler than observed near San Bernadino Dewpoints drier than observed near coast

NAM Parent, Nest vs URMA Wind Vectors July 8, 2014 21 UTC (33 h forecast) URMA 2.5 km Nest 4 km NAM 12 km Ozone AQI - Complex flow fields delineated by URMA - Turning and slowing of winds around high terrain near San Bernadino not captured by NAM 12

NAM Parent vs NEST Wind, PBL July 8, 2014 21 UTC (33 h forecast) Wind Speed PBL Hght Nest 4 km Allows hot temps, low winds to develop in valleys…NAM 12 misses and overruns topography NAM 12 km Nest: Wind speeds lower around S. Bernadino valley PBLH lower near coast/marine layer Inland seabreeze extent lessened

NAM Parent, Nest June 8, 2015 LA Basin 10 m wind/topo Dew Point Temperature URMA 2.5 km Unrestricted Mesoscale Analysis Brings in mesonets, 12 km NAM does not see the mountain blocking so strong flow will serve to dilute the forecast NAM 12 km

Surface Map Animation for June 12, 2015 Shows Warm Front Passage late in Day

CMAQ continues its 10 ppb early-season ozone under-prediction

NAM Parent, Nest vs Obs Temperatures June 12, 2015 18 UTC (12 H forecast) 2 m Temperature Dew Point Temperature NAM 12 km Unrestricted Mesoscale Analysis Brings in mesonets, 12 km NAM does not see the mountain blocking so strong flow will serve to dilute the forecast NAM Nest NAM-12: Temps ~ 2-4 ° cooler & 4-8 ° moister in Upstate NY/CT Can contribute to lack of ozone production Nest: Better inland predictions, Strong drying near the coast : downward mixing ?

Improvements with High Res Met Improvements with High Res Met ? May 15 –June 14, 2015 9h forecast : CONUS 2m Temperature Wind Speed

Improvements with High Res Met ? May 15 –June 14, 2015: NE/SW Bias SW U.S. NE U.S. 2m Temperature BIAS Dew point T

Saharan Dust in Gulf May 10, 2015

Saharan Dust in Gulf May 10, 2015

Canadian Smoke over E. U.S. June 10, 2015 HYSPLIT BlueSky V3.5.1 HYSPLIT Oper BlueSky Total Column smoke Concentration (ug/m3) CMAQ Oper Sfc PM2.5 Prediction

Aqua/Terra Images from June 9- June 11

Canadian Fire smoke over DMV June 10, 2015

1 hour Avg PM2.5 Performance Skill Score: Prod, para, bias corrected CONUS East US West U.S. Bias correction improvement but : Not capturing day to day variability & larger events

Summary What is the impact of smoke/dust on Meteorology ? Smoke, dust, ozone, anthropogenic PM : unified system using CMAQ V4.6.4 Ozone predictions improved with latest changes to V4.6.4 Although strong under-prediction in California still evident PM predictions: Main positive impact from updated emissions and NGAC LBCs (V4.6.5) Bias Correction: More evaluation needed (J. Huang) Better emissions from wild fire smoke (H-C Huang) NWS Un-Restricted Mesoscale Analysis (2.5 km) proved useful for evaluating NAM 12 and 4 km predictions High Res Met useful for identifying processes not resolved with 12 km NAM - 4 km nest captured blocking flow in San Bernadino Valley, California - 4 km nest performance of AQ sensitive weather fields best so far (what about fire wx nest ?) What is the impact of smoke/dust on Meteorology ? - possible impact for June 9-11 Met performance should be carefully evaluated while proceeding to address other system errors - Concern that we are making changes to chem/emissions that mask 1st order met errors Smoke and dust, ozone, anthropogenic PM now in one unified system with CMAQ Unified Now using a version of CMAQ supported by EPA CMAS community Supported First time in 7 years we’ve seen consistent improvement in ozone predictions Updated Inclusion of PM in operational model provides refliable PM product for all of U.S. Reliable

HYSPLIT smoke driven with NAM 4 km Future plans Short term (1-2 years) Include NGAC real-time full aerosol boundary conditions Improve smoke emissions Update USFS BlueSky emissions (forest load, consumption, spread emissions) Smart fire behavior using real-time met Evaluate plume rise (additional met constraints) Improve dust emissions NAM gust vs speed DNG winds Soil moisture impact Include ESRL bias correction for O3/PM At stations spreading technique to grid Short-range High Resolution smoke/dust modeling Partial inline NMMB-CMAQ V5.1 Dust first Impact on weather Highly optimized HYSPLIT smoke driven with NAM 4 km July 19, 2014